معادلهٔ جدید تنگهٔ هرمز در حال تثبیت است. امنیت کشتیرانی و ترانزیت انرژی به دست آمریکا و متحدانش با نقض آتشبس و اعمال محاصره به خطر افتاده است؛ البته شرّشان کم خواهد شد.
خوب میدانیم که استمرار وضع موجود برای آمریکا غیر قابل تحمل است؛ درحالی که ما هنوز حتی شروع هم نکردهایم.
همه اتفاقهای پرشتاب امروز بعد از این افتاد که آمریکا گفت کشتی های گیرافتاده در تنگه هرمز رو از خلیج فارس خارج میکنه. با برامدن افتاب از افق خلیج فارس چند کشتی هدف قرار گرفتند و به تاسیسات نفتی امارات که نفت رو از مسیر دیگری صادر میکرد، حمله شد. ایران حمله رو گردن نگرفته ولی @HamidRezaAz تحلیل میکنه که اینها تلاشهای ایران برای آسیب زدن به خطوط جایگزین انتقال نفت، بالا نگه داشتن بهای نفت و خنثی سازی هرگونه تصور عادی شدن شرایط هستند. پیام ایران روشنه: «تصمیم تازه ترامپ بی هزینه نخواهد بود»
The sooner we recognize this hard truth—that there’s no military solution to the conflict with Iran—the better off the United States will be.
Sheer military force cannot reopen the Strait of Hormuz without escalating the war and sucking us into another endless, bloody quagmire that delivers zero benefit to our people.
We can’t get rid of the emboldened government in Tehran, regardless of how many leaders we kill. If we try we will end up with a government or failed state, worse than what we have now.
The inevitable reality is this: we will have to cut a deal with Iran. We can be pragmatic and do it now on our own terms, or we can keep listening to the same neocons and the Israeli government who got us into this mess, only to cut the same deal after we’ve lost even more.
Recognizing that we have hit the point of diminishing returns and pulling out now is not weakness. It is strength—and it’s the right thing to do for the American people.
در ایران ما تندرو و میانهرو وجود ندارد؛
همه ما «ایرانی» و «انقلابی» هستیم و با اتحاد آهنین ملت و دولت، با تبعیت کامل از رهبر معظم انقلاب متجاوز جنایتکار را پشیمان خواهیم کرد.
یک خدا، ی�� رهبر، یک ملت، و یک راه؛ آن هم راه پی��وزی ایرانِ عزیزتر از جان.
#ایران_ما
Every evening since the start of the illegal, attack on Iran, hundreds of thousands take to their streets in solidarity with their leadership.
What fools told you Iranians want to be bombed? Oh that's right - clown prince Reza Pahlavi and Iranians who don't even live here.
Blockading Iranian ports is an act of war and thus a violation of the ceasefire.
Striking a commercial vessel and taking its crew hostage is an even greater violation.
Iran knows how to neutralize restrictions, how to defend its interests, and how to resist bullying.
President Trump is sending more military power to the Middle East as Iran rejects our initial peace offers—setting the escalation trap.
We can avoid that trap if we are wise enough not to believe our own hype. Bombing Iranian equipment and killing leaders may produce great hype reels, but if the GWOT taught us anything, it is that tactical success does not equal strategic victory.
To avoid a major disaster, we must first define what is truly vital to our national interests and act accordingly—regardless of optics of the daily news cycle.
We need the Strait of Hormuz open so oil can flow and stability can return to the energy markets and the Gulf region. These are realistic, achievable goals. They can be reached by significantly reducing our military footprint in the region and lifting sanctions on Iran. We can then tout Iran’s agreement not to build a nuclear weapon as a clear win for the media.
The key to avoiding the escalation trap and a disastrous quagmire is restraining Israel by drastically limiting the military aid we provide. Israel cannot sustain this fight without us, and will do everything they can to keep us engaged. We must pursue our own objectives, not theirs.
If we try to impose a maximalist outcome on Iran (zero enrichment, etc.) this war will undoubtedly escalate—costing American lives, billions more dollars, and ultimately eroding our global standing.
We must learn from our past and recognize when it is time to cut our losses and walk away. In the end, working to restore order will strengthen America far more than any military action ever could.
Blockading Iran will not compel its surrender.
After enduring 6 weeks of war, Iran’s leaders won’t suddenly decide, “Oh, we can’t use our ports now. We better meet U.S. demands.”
Trump can’t escalate the U.S. out of this mess. The war failed — now it’s time to cut losses.
@defpriorities