Hamidreza Azizi

PhD | Senior Iran Analyst @CrisisGroup | Views are my own | RTs ≠ endorsements

[Hamidreza Azizi @HamidRezaAz]

And finally… the author copies have arrived!

It’s a great feeling to hold the finished book after such a long process.

The Axis of Resistance: Iran, Israel and the Struggle for the Middle East

UK & EU: May 8 | US & North America: July 14

@politybooks

[Ali Alfoneh علی آلفونه @Alfoneh]

"Longer Range, Wider War: Tehran’s Message to Europe" @GulfStatesInst #IranMediaReview November 10, 2026. https://t.co/IULYtLbGYQ

[Nik Kowsar @nikahang]

https://t.co/MNWAXl5NYM

Iran's military once again showed off a “new” underground missile city. Nik Kowsar connects the tunnels to the country's water-transfer projects — and asks how the digging machines were bought in the first place.

[Hamidreza Azizi @HamidRezaAz]

Told @AJEnglish that reaching a diplomatic arrangement without securing any nuclear concessions from #Iran would amount to an admission of defeat, and the Americans seem reluctant to accept that.

What regional countries, particularly Qatar, have been trying hard to do is bridge this gap. But there is still no sign of a breakthrough on these issues.
https://t.co/42VhyjKQES

[Hamidreza Azizi @HamidRezaAz]

It was a pleasure to attend the Abu Dhabi Strategic Debate and speak about the implications of the war for #Iran’s domestic and foreign policy.

I’m glad to have had the opportunity to be in the region at this critical time and discuss ongoing developments with colleagues.

Many thanks to @ekitbi and @EmiratesPolicy for the invitation.

[Hamidreza Azizi @HamidRezaAz]

“Iran will try to break the blockade which could escalate into more war. The question will be when.”

[Vali Nasr @vali_nasr]

Trump has has been weighing three options, war, deal or blockade which means continue with current no war and no deal status quo and hope Iran will cave. He is claiming GCC is asking for this but in reality he has been sitting in war plans he asked for past few weeks, not comfortable with giving the order to attack. despite letting Vance step up diplomatic efforts Trump is not ready to make concessions that would get a deal. That leaves him
With the option favored by in Rubio and Bessent, settle for economic pressure. But this is at best a stop-gap policy. And it is now up to Iran to accept the status quo and it has said (most recently in Supreme Leader’s statement) that it will not. Which means Iran will try to break the blockade which could escalate into more war. The question will be when.

[EPC @EmiratesPolicy]

«ما لدينا الآن في إيران هو نظام أقل هرمية وأكثر أفقية، ويقوم على مجالس متعددة لصنع القرار، ومجتبى خامنئي هو أحد الأطراف في عملية صنع القرار وليس الوحيد.»

— د. حميد رضا عزيزي @HamidRezaAz
محلل أول للشؤون الإيرانية في ��جموعة الأزمات الدولية، بروكسل

ضمن الجلسة الثامنة: إيران الجديدة، إيران القديمة! تحوُّل النظام ومستقبل الجمهورية الإسلامية

📥 حمّل الأجندة: https://t.co/RSQbsQyuvx

#أبوظبي_الاستراتيجي #ADSD2026 @HamidRezaAz

[EPC @EmiratesPolicy]

د. حميد رضا عزيزي: تمكين الحرس الثوري في إيران لم يحدث بين عشية وضحاها، وقد تم تسريع هذه العملية بفعل الحرب الأخيرة.

Dr. Hamidreza Azizi: The process of empowering the Revolutionary Guard in Iran was a gradual one, but it was accelerated by the recent war.

@HamidRezaAz #ADSD2026 #أبوظبي_الاستراتيجي

[EPC @EmiratesPolicy]

🔴 LIVE NOW | Panel 8
New Iran, Old Iran? Regime Transformation and the Future of the Islamic Republic

With: H.E. Dr. Sultan Al-Nuaimi, Dr. Hamidreza Azizi @HamidRezaAz, Dr. Dina Esfandiary @DinaEsfandiary, Dr. Mohammad Al-Zghool @DAlzghoul
Moderated by Dr. Dlawer Ala'Aldeen @Dlawer

#ADSD2026 @ekitbi

[Robert Malley @Rob_Malley]

« The absence of an immediate war should not be mistaken for de-escalation. As long as the blockade remains in place without a credible diplomatic exit, the risk of another military confrontation will remain real. »

[Mohammad Ali Shabani @mashabani]

NEW: Politicians openly calling for nukes; IRGC hinting that Ali Khamenei's 2,000km cap on missile range has ended; and MPs pushing to abolish requirement for intel minister to be a cleric.

On their own, may not yet amount to much. But overall trajectory: tectonic change.

[Ali Vaez @AliVaez]

Status quo is war…

[Lahib Higel لهيب هيجل @LahibHigel]

Looking forward to this conversation on Wednesday @ChathamHouse.

[Ali Vaez @AliVaez]

Told @AFP: Having suffered electoral defeat and failed to secure military victory, Trump is unlikely to tolerate the trifecta of diplomatic humiliation. https://t.co/kJbd3xtA4B

[EPC @EmiratesPolicy]

The Panel 8 of the 13th Abu Dhabi Strategic Debate 2026, titled:

“New Iran, Old Iran? Regime Transformation and the Future of the Islamic Republic”

Can a new Supreme Leader exercise the same degree of authority and political influence as his predecessor? Will the new era produce different alliances, and how might political power be redistributed?

Session Eight, “A New Iran, an Old Iran: Regime Transformation and the Future of the Islamic Republic,” examines the future of Iran’s political system amid leadership transitions and economic challenges, and their implications for the domestic balance of power and the stability of the state.

The session also explores prospects for economic openness and the normalization of relations between Iran and the Gulf states, as well as the potential for building a shared regional order that promotes stability and economic integration.

https://t.co/7FqGSR1JuZ

#ADSD2026 #UAE

@ekitbi

[Babak Vahdad @BabakVahdad]

A potentially significant development in Iran’s intelligence establishment.

- MP Amir Hayat-Moqaddam says Parliament’s National Security Commission has approved removing the requirement that the Minister of Intelligence be a mujtahid, a religious jurist qualified to exercise independent Islamic legal reasoning.

- If adopted, the change would allow individuals without such religious credentials to head one of Iran’s most sensitive security institutions.

- The implications go beyond the appointment of a minister. The requirement reflected the importance traditionally attached to religious authority in overseeing intelligence activities. Removing it could give greater weight to professional experience and security credentials in selecting the minister.

- The timing is also worth considering. Coming after the recent war and amid the consolidation of Mojtaba Khamenei’s leadership, the proposal raises questions about the evolving relationship between religious authority and the security establishment.

- It would be premature to interpret this as a move towards secularisation. It may simply reflect greater flexibility in choosing who runs Iran’s intelligence apparatus.

There is, however, another possibility worth considering: the change may be designed to facilitate a particular appointment rather than simply reform the institution (an IRGC figure?).

#Iran

[Ali Vaez @AliVaez]

When the U.S. conducted Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025, it achieved something significant: Stilling Iran's enrichment for the first time in decades.

But set against containing the growth of Iran's nuclear program was increasing its opacity. 1/

[Nigar Göksel @nigargoksel]

Proud to have welcomed @CrisisGroup staff from all over the world to my magnificent hometown Istanbul this week!

[Mohammad Ali Shabani @mashabani]

Making matters even worse: the US is explicitly targeting Iranian academics.

[Hamidreza Azizi @HamidRezaAz]

Told @CNN that given the latest election results, the Iranians see no reason to offer Trump any nuclear concessions.

They are also expected to insist even more strongly than before on their demand that the United States take the first step before any deal can materialize.
https://t.co/1VUxtSor9E

[Mairav Zonszein מרב זונשיין @MairavZ]

Netanyahu’s decision months ago to announce Israel would no longer need US aid was not just about getting ahead of curve on US public opinion - it was also to be able to launch war in Iran solo (and likely betting US would be forced to step in on defense). https://t.co/xFlwTGNK9K