Robert Malley

Author w/Hussein Agha, TOMORROW IS YESTERDAY: LIFE, DEATH, & THE PURSUIT OF PEACE IN ISRAEL-PALESTINE. Pdt Emeritus & Mideast Pg Dir @CrisisGroup. Yale Lecturer

[Robert Malley @Rob_Malley]

This week’s @CrisisGroup take on the US/Israeli war with Iran:

“It has been one more week in the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, and the week has yet again ended in confusion… Trump’s erratic actions and rhetoric make clear that he is torn, eager to end an economically costly and politically unpopular war, yet still trying to wiggle out of what could be politically painful concessions on his part (most notably anything that smacks of economic benefits for Iran), and hopeful that additional pressure on Iran will yield additional concessions on theirs.

Notwithstanding a pervasive sense that the U.S. is closer to reaching a deal than at any point in the past three months, Trump could still be persuaded by Netanyahu and domestic hawks that any deal that involves such economic benefits, or defers “decisive” action on Iran’s nuclear program would amount to surrender. Should this happen, he would return to the choice he avoided on 19 May, when he deferred strikes that he said were planned at the request of Gulf countries. He could either resume the air war, or maintain the blockade, or both – and bank on Iran’s economy cracking before the global economy does. In none of these scenarios is he likely to succeed, as the Iranian regime repeatedly has demonstrated that it believes time to be on its side, and that it is willing to absorb costs, however painful, rather than give in to U.S. pressure.”

https://t.co/B81VVJkIpo

[Robert Malley @Rob_Malley]

The @OnesandToozePod is always hugely informative but this episode, with @adam_tooze analysis of the economic devastation caused by the US/Israeli war on Iran & the possible economic dimension of any US-Iran deal, is a must-listen

https://t.co/Htkn87a2Fw

[Crisis Group @CrisisGroup]

The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz is a contentious element in negotiations to end the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and an issue of significant interest to countries around the world.

Get to grips with its role in the conflict so far with our new visual explainer.

https://t.co/hLXFafYV6u

[Robert Malley @Rob_Malley]

This makes good sense.

Importantly, it would allow Trump to describe what in effect is the exit ramp he needs as the victory lap he craves.

If that's what it takes...

[Gregory Brew @gbrew24]

There's going to be ambiguity in whatever "deal" comes together that allows the strait to reopen.

-Trump will frame this is as a nuclear deal--even though it is very unlikely that Iran has agreed to anything up-front (agreement to address in principle during subsequent rounds of negotiations is very different).

-Iran will contend that it is fully in control of the strait and that a "new status quo" is now in effect--even though it is very likely Iran has agreed to allow traffic to resume as a pre-condition for the US lowering its blockade and de-escalating in general.

-Trump will claim that no money is being paid--even though it is very likely that Qatar has agreed to release some frozen funds ($6 billion, perhaps more), while the lowering of the US blockade will allow Iran to resume oil exports, a key source of revenue for the government.

Both sides need to claim victory. And it appears possible that both sides have realized this and are baking it into the agreement now currently being finalized.

[Ali Shihabi علي الشهابي @aliShihabi]

Saudi will smile and ignore this ridiculous statement. Cannot take it seriously.

[Yezid Sayigh يزيد صايغ @SayighYezid]

An admirably clear and helpful, if distressing, analysis of the state of play in Iraqi politics by International Crisis Group's @LahibHigel:

Iraq Forms New Government amid Regional Turmoil https://t.co/FsCiJvZUNw via @crisisgroup

[Robert Malley @Rob_Malley]

As @citrinowicz puts it, the idea of linking an Iran deal to normalization with Israel “is impractical, detached from reality, and so disconnected from the actual dynamics of the Middle East that it raises serious doubts about whether this administration truly understands the region at all.”

[Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش @citrinowicz]

Trump is trying, as hard as he can, to manufacture a “victory image.” If Iran will not give him one, then perhaps the Gulf states will, allowing him to justify what increasingly looks like a deeply troubled approach toward Tehran.

The problem is that this futile insistence is damaging U.S. relations with the Gulf states and, paradoxically, pushing them toward their own accommodation with Iran.

Needless to say, there is virtually no chance this idea will materialize. But Washington’s persistence is steadily eroding trust with Riyadh at a moment when the Saudi leadership is already deeply concerned about renewed regional escalation.

It is impractical, detached from reality, and so disconnected from the actual dynamics of the Middle East that it raises serious doubts about whether this administration truly understands the region at all.

#IranWar‌
#Iran

[Shibley Telhami @ShibleyTelhami]

Actually, Van Hollen specifically says: "Democrats should pursue a last-gasp effort to salvage a two-state solution. If that effort fails, the US will have to consider other options to secure equal political and legal rights for all" - boldly hinting at one state with equality.

[Alan Eyre @AlanEyre1]

Essential reading from @CrisisGroup on where we are in the #IranWar.

[Robert Malley @Rob_Malley]

This week’s @CrisisGroup recap on the US/Iran conflict :

“That both Washington and Tehran are commenting on the potential memorandum with caution underscores the difficulty in getting even broad understandings over the finish line – a function of complications inherent in indirect diplomacy; the utter lack of trust between the sides; a degree of opacity in Iranian decision-making under the new supreme leader; and Trump’s capricious, erratic behaviour, which is only magnified by the political dilemma he has created for himself

https://t.co/PUs4XVeA5t

[Mairav Zonszein מרב זונשיין @MairavZ]

In his oped, @ChrisVanHollen not only openly calls Israeli control over the West Bank an "apartheid system" and an effort at "ethnic cleansing," but hints that soon, the Democratic Party will need to go beyond the two-state solution https://t.co/Gvl4FSGhSc

[Robert Malley @Rob_Malley]

Important & noteworthy piece by @ChrisVanHollen on the choice the Democratic Party faces on Israel-Palestine

https://t.co/RKlaDuAi3w

[Alex Ward @alexbward]

After long saying the U.S. would acquire Iran’s “nuclear dust”—the enriched uranium—he now says his preference is the IAEA be present as Iran destroys it at home or “at another acceptable location”

[Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom]

Imagining the reaction in Pakistan, two months of trying to mediate a deal hoping it will put them into Trump's good books, only for him to toss this out there at the 11th hour

[Phil Gordon @PhilGordonDC]

The fact that so many proponents of the Iran war are criticizing Trump’s looming deal is less an indictment of the deal than it is of the war. It means they can't defend the results of the policy they advocated for so long so are reduced to claiming that victory would have been around the corner if only Trump had stayed the course... (which only they seem to believe). They are right that the deal will leave the US worse off than before the war but fail to recognize, or at least refuse to admit, that the mistake was the war, not the deal.

[Ali Vaez @AliVaez]

To be fair, the JCPOA didn't have any provisions for re-opening the Strait of Hormuz.

Mostly because it wasn't closed at the time, but still.

[Robert Malley @Rob_Malley]

Grateful for this thoughtful review of Tomorrow is Yesterday by Susie Linfield in @DissentMag:

« Compelling, provocative, deeply unsettling, and, sometimes, flawed. It is the most original book I have read that has emerged from Hamas’s October 7 massacres and the Gaza war....  The value of this brave, bracing book is its challenge to the cherished beliefs of Palestinians, Israelis, and any “bystanders” who are committed to the flourishing of a democratic Jewish state and to ending the subjugation of the Palestinian people. »

https://t.co/Pgl5ELhFnP

[Esfandyar Batmanghelidj @yarbatman]

Something important to keep in mind about the $25 billion figure…

That sounds like a lot of money, but it’s a drop in the bucket considering the war damage Iran has sustained. It also amounts to less than half of Iran’s typical annual oil revenue.

Releasing the funds may help calm Iran’s FX market, but what matters more is where and how the frozen funds are released. Iran needs to test whether Trump can decisively remove sanctions barriers. Demanding the release of funds is about gaining confidence to continue negotiations that would include broader sanctions relief.

[Alan Eyre @AlanEyre1]

Let me be less diplomatic than @Rob_Malley: none of the people cited would have come close to making the serial strategic blunders made by this administration, which has set back US and Gulf security immeasurably. But yes, it is good the administration is cutting its losses. #IranWar‌

[ian bremmer @ianbremmer]

if concluded, trump-iran deal arguably the least worst outcome available to president trump.

except for:

1) agreeing to those terms months ago.

2) not having gone to war in the first place.

or

3) not having withdrawn from the iranian nuclear deal.