Gregory Brew

Senior Analyst, Iran and Oil @EurasiaGroup. Formerly @ISSYale. Author of "The Struggle for Iran" and "Petroleum and Progress in Iran." Views my own.

[Gregory Brew @gbrew24]

New pinned tweet, as the links broke for the old one:

"Petroleum and Progress in #Iran: Oil, Development, and the Cold War." https://t.co/jeVAp8VXbz

"The Struggle for #Iran: Oil, Autocracy, and the Cold War, 1951-1954." https://t.co/WIet3Z6z3e

[Gregory Brew @gbrew24]

@Rory_Johnston The way he adds up the numbers is a little telling on that score.

[Gregory Brew @gbrew24]

Again, it's notable that so much oil is getting out-- the strait is no longer "closed," so much as "heavily disrupted."

But it doesn't aid the admin's argument to exaggerate the scale.

(Also, it's notable that he cites 15m bpd + pipelines as getting the volume "closer to 20 million bpd," an admission perhaps that Yanbu loadings are down substantially from a month ago).

[Gregory Brew @gbrew24]

"I'd come back as the bond market, you can intimidate any--"

KABOOM

[Acyn @Acyn]

Reporter on Bond Market: The yields have come back up since then. Have you talked to Bessent about another type of intervention.?

Trump: The ultimate intervention is our military. And if we have to use that, we will.

[Gregory Brew @gbrew24]

Again, it's notable that so much oil is getting out-- the strait is no longer "closed," so much as "heavily disrupted."

But it doesn't aid the admin's argument to exaggerate the scale.

(Also, it's notable that he cites 15m bpd + pipelines as getting the volume "closer to 20 million bpd," an admission perhaps that Yanbu loadings are down substantially from a month ago).

[Gregory Brew @gbrew24]

"7-day average of oil leaving the Strait is over 8 million barrels a day."

Sources to Axios said 10m bpd, Wright himself last week said 9m bpd.

[Secretary Chris Wright @SecretaryWright]

On Tuesday, the U.S. military helped ship over 15 million barrels of oil and products out of the Strait of Hormuz — combined with pipelines, the total leaving the region is closer to 20 million barrels. 7-day average of oil leaving the Strait is over 8 million barrels a day. Make no mistake, thanks to the U.S. Navy, oil is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz.

[Gregory Brew @gbrew24]

@MattZeitlin It's fine

[Gregory Brew @gbrew24]

@jstein_notus Would it shock you to hear that this is not the first time he has threatened this

[Gregory Brew @gbrew24]

This was in the context of comments to mark Defense Industry Day.

Vahidi focused on the need to build out domestic defense manufacturing.

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

IRGC COMMANDER-IN-CHIEF AHMAD VAHIDI SAID IRAN MUST RAPIDLY EXPAND ITS OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE CAPABILITIES, STATE MEDIA REPORTED FRIDAY.

[Gregory Brew @gbrew24]

It's aged better than you think.

[Lord of the Rings Daily @LOTR_Daily_]

Say something nice about the Hobbit Trilogy

[Gregory Brew @gbrew24]

still got it

[Criterion Collection @Criterion]

✨Matthew McConaughey’s Closet Picks! ✨

[Gregory Brew @gbrew24]

@matthew_petti Violence yes, not clear if it will be "significant" or not.

[Gregory Brew @gbrew24]

Azizi claims the US "does not understand the language of diplomacy," but will be forced through "the language of strength."

More support for an aggressive policy, though notably Azizi (like the rest of the leadership) directly alludes to the lifting of sanctions and an end to the blockade as the objectives.

An open-ended war is not the goal--an agreement that relieves economic pressure on Iran is, albeit one that is more likely to come through more conflict.

[ابراهیم عزیزی @Ebrahimazizi33]

The U.S. has proven it does not understand the language of diplomacy. They will neither lift the sanctions, release Iran’s resources, nor put an end to maritime piracy.

History, however, will show that the language of strength will compel it not only to take these steps, but also to apologize to the great Iranian nation and leave the region forever.

[Gregory Brew @gbrew24]

"Iran is now confident that it can absorb U.S. bombings, which seriously weakens any military threats the U.S. may issue in the future,” I told @ishaantharoor.

"The U.S. now looks broadly deterred from attempting more aggressive action against Iran, cowed by the risk of sweeping Iranian retaliation.” https://t.co/HfZptqm6vS

[Gregory Brew @gbrew24]

imo dunking on Foote is proof you've survived certain discourse wars over the last decade, those who really know ball would go after Katznelson.

[Michael Koncewicz @MikeKoncewicz]

Gillis made fun of Shelby Foote during his last SNL monologue.

[Gregory Brew @gbrew24]

Does Bessent know that Qalibaf literally translates into "carpet weaver"?

[Libbey Dean @LibbeyDean_]

NEW: “I wouldn’t buy a rug from that guy.”

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tells me that in response to Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf saying Bessent is “way out of his league” in negotiations.

Bessent also accused Ghalibaf of stealing from the Iranian people.

[Gregory Brew @gbrew24]

@emblumenthal Done!

[Gregory Brew @gbrew24]

Trump threatens economic action against any country that does business with Iran (but stops short of naming any).

FWIW the UAE announced an end to economic relations with Iran yesterday. Quite likely it was linked to this initiative.

Whether other countries follow suit remains to be seen (Iran's largest trading partner is China).

[Gregory Brew @gbrew24]

Bessent and others cannot say what this policy is meant to achieve--reopening the strait--because in the admin's telling, the strait is already open.

As a result, this return to maximum pressure feels oddly devoid of purpose. The US is inflicting economic pain (felt mostly by Iran's people, rather than its rulers) for no clear reason.

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent @SecScottBessent]

Any remaining tie to Tehran will hasten a nation's economic oblivion, whether that tie be purposefully constructed or willfully ignored.

[Gregory Brew @gbrew24]

Irony of course is the Super El Niño will likely help suppress storm activity in the Atlantic Basin (unless the atmospheric effects are weirder than usual).

Likely why Gulf refiners are as confident as they appear to be--tho this only makes the risk from an outrage that much more acute. Not much room for error.

[Gregory Brew @gbrew24]

Going into hurricane season with a diesel crack at $100, inventory at a seasonal low since 1997, and every refinery in the country running 97% or higher is certainly something.

Good thing there's no global climate event causing ocean temps to spike!

[Behnam Ben Taleblu بهنام بن طالب لو @therealBehnamBT]

This is the problem with a Snapshot/Screenshot/Polaroid/Axios Leak/Truth Social Post/whatever you wanna call it approach to Iran analysis

What The Economist missed: the steady accumulation of political, military, and economic power of the IRGC and NatSec deep state (SLO, SNSC…) for decades due to Ali Khamenei’s reign, deal or no deal…