ProfTalmadge

MIT professor & Brookings senior fellow ⎮ Foreign policy, military operations, nuclear weapons, authoritarianism ⎮ Book: The Dictator's Army

[ProfTalmadge @ProfTalmadge]

My latest on the Iranian threat to the Strait of Hormuz in @ForeignAffairs
https://t.co/tprsE9o066

[ProfTalmadge @ProfTalmadge]

"The damage seen at US facilities suggests that Tehran's counter-attacks have been more precise and extensive than American officials have previously acknowledged." https://t.co/CoFUKN3l0a

[ProfTalmadge @ProfTalmadge]

"A nuclear deal focusing only on enrichment and stockpiles can no longer address the problem. A good agreement must now also account for Iran’s improved enrichment technology, its potential for covert enrichment activities, and its ability to convert enriched uranium into deployable weapons."
https://t.co/Qz6Jkvaz6L

[ProfTalmadge @ProfTalmadge]

Great that US says it has destroyed 90% of Iran's mine inventory, but:
- battle damage assessment in this war has been less than stellar
- that still leaves Iran with 800 mines, a significant capability if they can be deployed
- Russia has a lot of mines it could sell to Iran

[Anthony Capaccio @ACapaccio]

We break: The US has destroyed more than 90% of Iran’s inventory of around 8,000 naval mines, the commander of US forces in the Middle East told lawmakers on Thursday in a written statement https://t.co/liuzu7sOnb

[ProfTalmadge @ProfTalmadge]

It's remarkable that any of these sites were intact after a 40-day air war. Had Iran's threats to close the Strait been taken seriously, one would imagine the US prioritizing these target from Day 1, not mopping them up 2 months later during a faux ceasefire.
https://t.co/R156OrELMi

[ProfTalmadge @ProfTalmadge]

Awkward lead in to the Trump-Xi summit...

[Demetri @AsiaLens]

US imposes sanctions on Chinese satellite companies for helping Iran, including #TheEarthEye, which we had a big scoop on last month

https://t.co/6eR9EvlsMh via @ft

[ProfTalmadge @ProfTalmadge]

Good news, but the fact that this happened in the first place points to growing Saudi buyer's remorse on the Iran war.
https://t.co/mSvsqDxqVk

[ProfTalmadge @ProfTalmadge]

The naval blockade against Iran is a contest over who can withstand the pain longer-- Iran in the form of reduced oil revenue and industry damage, US in the form of higher oil prices and sustained naval campaign. New CIA analysis suggests time may be on Iran's side.
https://t.co/TcJQP60Ve5

[ProfTalmadge @ProfTalmadge]

“They were hoping to get by on the cheap by essentially having these warships go out and show that there was a clear channel. It pretty quickly was clear that it was not safe enough.” https://t.co/gvR7GkuKpD

[ProfTalmadge @ProfTalmadge]

👀 "Trump surprised Gulf allies by announcing “Project Freedom” on social media, angering Saudi Arabia. In response, the Kingdom informed the U.S. it would not allow the U.S. military to fly aircraft from Prince Sultan Airbase southeast of Riyadh or fly through Saudi airspace to support the effort."
https://t.co/tSgRM3ka7D `

[ProfTalmadge @ProfTalmadge]

@ka_grieco @evanhill @washingtonpost The good news is our military strategy in other regions doesn’t depend on highly vulnerable bases.

[ProfTalmadge @ProfTalmadge]

Imagery analysis here suggests a major reason US has not seemed eager to resume bombing Iran: "the damage at the sites suggested that the U.S. military had underestimated Iran’s targeting abilities, not adapted sufficiently to modern drone warfare and left some bases under-protected." In short, Iran can hit back. https://t.co/QlyjcdKofM

[ProfTalmadge @ProfTalmadge]

“From the perspective of the Gulf states, it looks like the U.S. is not prioritizing their security and basically threw the Gulf states under the bus.” https://t.co/L36UXYiILd

[ProfTalmadge @ProfTalmadge]

None of the Iran War's stated strategic objectives have been achieved. Highly repressive regime still in Tehran, nuclear program still intact, missiles & drones still launching. And US is now suddenly pausing effort to re-open Strait of Hormuz-- a problem that did not exist before the war. It's mind-boggling.

[ProfTalmadge @ProfTalmadge]

Someone once told me the Strait will open up naturally.

[The White House @WhiteHouse]

“We have mutually agreed that, while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, Project Freedom (The Movement of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed…” - President DONALD J. TRUMP

[ProfTalmadge @ProfTalmadge]

@RadioFreeTom 😂

[ProfTalmadge @ProfTalmadge]

I pity the younger generation who may not get how hysterically funny this reference by the Chairman was. 💀

[Acyn @Acyn]

Daily Wire: Can you clarify these reports of kamikaze dolphins that we've heard about?

Caine: Like sharks with laser beams.

Hegseth: I can't confirm or deny whether we have kamikaze dolphins, but I can confirm they don't.

[ProfTalmadge @ProfTalmadge]

Lots of care at this morning's Hegseth-Caine presser to emphasize that Project Freedom is distinct from Epic Fury, and that exchanges of fire yesterday remained low level. They sure don't want anyone bringing up the War Powers Resolution....