Name_can_be_blank

Lost and found. not a bot. not a protestor or an agitator. I like and value my anonymity and privacy. I grow through the sharing and challenging of ideas.

[Aaron M. Renn 🇺🇸 @aaron_renn]

“Where have all the good men gone?” Any traditional authority figure (eg pastor) who isn’t seriously addressing the “red pill” critique has no credibility today.

[Megan Basham @megbasham]

I have been beyond blessed by the father and husband the Lord has given me.

And my Father’s Day gift to both of you this year is this something some men would say is impossible—I, a certified woman, am here to publicly admit you guys were right and I was wrong.

Almost without fail, every time you encouraged me to do something that seemed to me too daunting or like too too much work, I later regretted when I did not take your advice to pursue it.

Conversely, every time you encouraged me to slow down or reconsider the path that I was on and I plunged forward anyway, it was invariably a mistake.

But when I DID listen, your loving guidance helped me accept new opportunities that made me nervous and avoid pain I might have otherwise endured.

And one of the joys of my life is seeing both of you offer the same godly guidance and guardrails to my daughters.

Love you both to pieces.

(PS, my husband is such a good man that his Father’s Day activity was driving a couple of hours out of town to pick up an armoire at a consignment store that I dearly wanted. And then he moved that beast into the house by himself and removed the old ugly one I had lived with for 15 years.

I’m sorry, ladies, there’s only one of him, and I got him. And I’m very glad that I did!)

[Jeremy Carl @realJeremyCarl]

Preposterous.

As a PCA member of Jewish descent I can tell you I have zero fear of this becoming a Nazi-influenced denomination.

I have great fear that we are led by too many pastors to the left of their flocks theologically and politically, and that we will follow the mainline into irrelevancy and heresy in an attempt to cater to "respectability" with the left establishment.

[Name_can_be_blank @no_verity]

https://t.co/J8M3LpSNR7
Feminism and these boss woman have created so much brokenness in society... Lonely. No legacy. This is equivalent to the constant warring tribes of the past that have destroyed families and so many men's lives. But worse.

[Jesús Fernández-Villaverde @JesusFerna7026]

Let me lay out the unpleasant arithmetic of the replacement rate, and why a modern society finds it so hard to reach.

A population of 100 women in an advanced economy needs 210 children to replace itself. Why?

Absent sex-selective practices, roughly 105 boys are born for every 100 girls. Evolution overshoots male births because boys are more prone to early death from accidents and disease. Therefore, of 210 children, about 108 are boys and 102 are girls. Not all girls reach the midpoint of their fertile age: accidents, suicide, homicide, and illness take some. In an advanced economy, about 98% of them survive, leaving 100 women to replace the original 100.

Now consider the distribution of children per woman.

Imagine 15 women have no children. Five do so by choice, for various reasons (professional, affective, religious). Ten face unfixable fertility problems, theirs or their partner’s. The 10% figure is conservative: the medical literature points to around 13%, and that does not even count male fertility problems.

Of the remaining 85, 10 have one child, 60 have two, 10 have three, and 5 have four. I am stopping at four to keep the post concise; very few women in younger cohorts have five or more children, but I could adapt the example to account for them.

Hence, the 100 women in this population have 180 children, for a completed fertility rate of 1.8.

Interestingly, this is roughly the rate we saw in many advanced economies until the early 1990s, and in the U.S. until around 2008.

But we are still 30 children short of replacement! Voluntary childlessness is only 5%. Three-quarters of women have two or more children. Look around: most of your friends will have two, plenty will have three or four. And yet, we are well below replacement.

You would not look at this population and call it selfish (is having two kids hedonistic?) or accuse it of losing family values (only 5% of women are choosing voluntarily not to have children).

The point is simpler. To reach 210 births, you need a substantial share of women to have three or more children. Two as the “normal” pattern will not get you there. And modern society makes three or more a costly proposition for most families.

Of course, current fertility rates in most advanced economies are well below 1.8. But my point is that, under present social arrangements, we should not expect 2.1, even if (to humor last weekend’s debate) we banned smartphones and TikTok. We need many, many more families with three or four children.

More pointedly, there is no self-regulating mechanism that pushes a society back to 2.1. The market-clearing analogy many economists use is flawed; scarcity feedback does not work the same way. (Another post on this another day.) And, as I often read, the claim that “nature” somehow regulates current overpopulation is just childish mumbo jumbo.

So yes, the arithmetic of replacement rate is unpleasant.

[Jesús Fernández-Villaverde @JesusFerna7026]

When I write about the long-run consequences of population decline, I’ve noticed that most people cannot grasp what a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.1 means. Many of my readers look at 1.1 and treat it as not that different from 2.1. This is the wrong way to think about it: TFRs are like interest rates; they compound over time.

To make the point, I ran the following simulation. I built the population structure of a country with 1 million inhabitants, a TFR of 2.1 (just at replacement level), and a life expectancy of 85 (with realistic survival rates). Thus, this country has a stationary population over time.

I then hit this country with a reduction in the TFR from 2.1 to 1.1. The reduction, which takes 25 years to complete, is similar in size and duration to what we’ve seen in many advanced and middle-income economies. It is also concentrated among younger women, with fertility postponed to later years. I plot the initial, middle, and final TFR in the top-left panel of the figure.

I then simulate the next 200 years of this population. By the year 200, the original 1 million has fallen to 54,900, a 95.5% reduction. The top-right panel illustrates this evolution. This is not a minor adjustment: it means closing 95 of every 100 universities, hospitals, and shops. Since the population is likely to concentrate in a few remaining cities, nearly the whole country becomes a population desert.

The bottom two panels show the population structure and pyramids. The population stabilizes at a median age of 61 and an old-age dependency ratio of 95.21%.

You might argue that TFR is unlikely to remain at 1.1 for so long because higher-fertility subgroups (e.g., the highly religious) would grow as a share of the population. Fair enough. But I am not offering this simulation as a forecast. I am illustrating how, at current rates, countries of 50 million people (roughly South Korea or Spain) would become countries of 2.75 million, ignoring immigration.

These are the issues for the next century.

[ThatGuyFromHS @ThatGuyFromHS]

@yonann Dave: "Don't ever take on debt for any reason."
Also Dave: "If you don't take on $90,000 of someone else's debt, you should die alone."

These goddamn Boomers, man. They are genuinely the worst.

[Peter B @realpeteyb123]

Norah maiden name is Gottfried and she interned in the Clinton White House surprise, surprise…

Kelly Sawyer Patricof the other ceo is Married to Jamie Patricof, who comes from the powerful Patricof family (his father Alan Patricof is a longtime major Democratic donor and Clinton-era venture capitalist).

That’s another deep Democratic money/political network.

[Peter B @realpeteyb123]

Ok… most of you know I was in the organic baby formula business, but what you don’t know is I dabbled in diapers as well.

I also know this baby2baby “non profit” and have had past interactions with them.. I’ll leave that out for now..

Let’s dive into this absolute grifting nonsense. Prepare to be shocked.

California is about to spend $20 million of taxpayer money to give 100,000 newborns 400 diapers each through Baby2Baby.

Do the math with me:
100,000 babies × 400 diapers = 40 million diapers

$20,000,000 ÷ 40,000,000 = $0.50 per diaper!!!!!

Now walk into any Costco in California and you can buy the same quality diapers for .12 to .15 cents each!

That’s $48 to $60 for 400 diapers.
So the state is paying 8–10x more per diaper than a regular family buying in bulk.

They could’ve just handed every low-income new mom $100 cash and told her to go to Costco. She’d get more diapers, better ones if she wanted, and still have money left for formula, wipes, or whatever the hell she actually needs.

But nah… that wouldn’t let Gavin and his connected “nonprofit” girls running the show there cut ribbons, take photos, do galas and be friends with celebrities and brag about the “first-in-the-nation” program while skimming their cut for “administration” and “partnerships.”

This is peak government stupidity!!!

Spend way more money to feel good and look good, instead of just trusting parents with their own damn money.
We’re not helping babies. We’re funding another bloated nonprofit-government grift.

Math doesn’t lie. The diaper math is brutal.

What a scam and a joke!!!!!

[Andy Ngo @MrAndyNgo]

To my American followers: Yesterday was local elections across England, Wales and Scotland, and the results have shattered the two-party Labour-Conservative status quo that held for a century. Starmer’s left-wing Labour Party has lost close to 1,100 council seats, while Nigel Farage’s Reform, a new party, gained over 1,200 council seats.

The next general election for parliament is not set to take place until 2029, but this outcome makes Farage being prime minister a possibility if the momentum continues.

[Joe Abraham @angeldadjoe]

I promise you, Ro Khanna, my daughter was scared when she was forced to take her last breath.
I was not there to hold her as she slipped away.
For years, Americans were told about “robust vetting” and “screening.” My family learned the cost of those false assurances when an illegal immigrant, driving intoxicated and in this country unlawfully, killed my daughter under the very policies you champion and still defend.
Oh, and he got a release date — because of course he did.
Katie got the grave.
Katie’s family got a life sentence of grief while he got another chance.
Your one-sided hyperbolic rhetoric would fit right in with J.B. Pritzker, his allies and the Illinois media that protects him.
How far we have fallen when men like you are treated as moral leaders while families like mine are left with graves, not justice. Bang-up job sir!

[Batya Ungar-Sargon @bungarsargon]

Debunking the Data That Claims to Show Most Political Violence Comes From the Right: There's a lot of funky data out there being compiled by nakedly partisan organizations and spread as though it's factual by the liberal media. My column: https://t.co/zH1gnRtO9A

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

When violence is categorized accurately, this unequivocally true.

You know who the bad guys are, because they’re the ones who want censorship of free speech.

[Dura Veritas @darth_veritas01]

@justin_hart The answer: he copied large swaths of it from the Old Testament.

The next question is why have zero archaeological evidences been uncovered?

[Benny Johnson @bennyjohnson]

Trump TORCHES 60 Minutes for parroting the shooter’s Manifesto: “I am not a rapist… I am not a pedophile. You read that crap from some sick person... You shouldn't be reading that on 60 Minutes. You are a disgrace. Go ahead, let's finish the interview.”

[Name_can_be_blank @no_verity]

@UGOOOTWEETS @UtdFanChika Crash

[Andrew Tate @Cobratate]

There is probably no bigger crime against humanity than the destruction of the United Kingdom.

England in the 90s, where I grew up, was actual paradise.

The pub gardens, the white people, oasis with fish and chips.

There were full bars and clubs 7 nights a week in every single town let alone city.

Always something to do. Even if you were poor, go out with a tenner and have the best time.

10,000 pound night today is 1% of what a 10-pound night was back then.

Neighborly people.

Safe streets. Even the council estates were safe.

You had to live it to understand it.

Everything’s been destroyed.

[Eyal Yakoby @EYakoby]

20 people were invited to see a video that exposes Palestinian propaganda.

Every single one had the same response: “I feel like a moron.”

[Name_can_be_blank @no_verity]

@benkreis @ZacharyGarris Blasphemy