Tucker Carlson's favourite "political scientist", John Mearsheimer, and his ATROCIOUS predictions on the war in Ukraine:
Feb. 2022: "I don't think Russia is going to invade."
Sep. 2023: "The Ukrainians are doomed to lose."
Jan. 2024: "It's ridiculous to think Ukraine can hold the line in 2024."
Apr. 2025: "It's unimaginable Ukraine will hang on beyond 2025."
Jul. 2026: "The Russians are slowly moving forward."
The Jim Cramer of foreign policy predictions.
What the online right wants more than anything - mainstream cultural power, influence, taste-making - they can never get.
Tragicomic. They can win control of the entire federal government and still feel like bitter outsiders.
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~50% of Americans don’t even fly once a year but it’s extremely on brand for this specific “working class movement” to be over focused on issues that appeal entirely to spoilt brats & downwardly mobile liberal arts kids
Chevalier is sympathetic to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, is critical of interracial relationships, called Joe Biden a rapist and believes COVID-19 began in France.
She has no business being in Congress and the voters who are putting her there are making a terrible decision.
Wanna share a particularly enormous personal W with you guys! Bit a long read so I won't blame you for scrolling past this post, but I promise it's a wild story with a good payoff.
I've been very open about my story of getting a bipolar diagnosis pretty late in life. The diagnosis came many years after causing a lot of financial wreckage with an insane gambling binge I went on, which itself was followed by a couple more years of absurd levels of avoidance and more really bad decisions that quickly cascaded into something so catastrophic that it could no longer be ignored.
There was a four month stretch in my life when I spent every waking moment in a poker room. I mean literally every waking moment. I stopped making YouTube videos and decided I was going to become a professional poker player and I was going to pull this off because I was a natural (I was not a natural). Multiple 24+ hour sessions. My longest was 52 hours that started with $100 that I turned into $5k, and ended with me snap calling all in on the turn with a set of 2's, all because I was too delirous to see that there was a possible straight for my opponent. That was the worst drive home of my life holy shit.
There's a lot more to the story about how I landed myself in that spot but those details aren't very important. TLDR: lots and lots of pain. During this months long binge, I wiped out every cent I owned and after that, I resorted to taking on significant debt through probably a couple dozen different predatory loans of varying amounts. I was so far gone at that point that none of it seemed real.
Untreated mania is really crazy, as I'm sure most of you understand from some of the more high profile examples we've seen in the media. I knew what I was doing was the pinnacle of self-destruction and yet plowed forward without much hesitation. Looking back, I think that this implosion was intentional for reasons that are difficult to explain in a way that makes any sense to people that have never experienced serious mental illness. And I convinced myself that I could gamble my way out of the problem at each new, much more destructive step of the way. Not a terribly original degenerate gambler's story tbh. Many such cases.
This episode eventually stopped but by the time my debts could no longer be ignored, the cumulative amount owed from the loans + multiple tax liabilities was north of $200,000(!!). Seeing the exact number I owed on paper crushed me in the moment. I had no idea how I would ever work myself out of that hole. I had no faith that I could pull it off. I couldn't pass the blame to anyone else. I. Was. FUCKED.
Untreated bipolar is a pretty decent excuse all things considered but the truth is that I knew I wasn't alright even if I didn't know the particulars. I could have sought help. I chose oblivion instead. It seemed like the best option at the time🤷♂️I'm sympathetic to that version of me now after years of treatment and sobriety because it's obvious in retrospect that I was dealing with a lot of pain that I didn't understand, but I truly hated myself when it came time to look at my mistakes and finally start actually dealing with them.
The shame of it all was difficult to bear and I don't think I could have managed the weight of it without my partner, friends, and family. My beautiful Esmeralda in particular was a crucial part of this story. She helped remind me in the moments when I felt hopeless that I would eventually get through it with time and hard work. I remember feeling bad for her when she would say these things to me, thinking that she was wrong about my ability to ultimately get through it.
I set up multiple installment agreements that totaled thousands of dollars every month (not fun) at a time when I had nuked my income and business (REALLY not fun)...and then I just got to work and kept making those payments. I really wanted to just ignore it all and find excuses to not have to build up my business from the ashes of where I had left it, but I doubt Esme would have tolerated that for more than a week. The only play unfortunately was to adult the ever living shit out of this problem.
For the last 10 years, I was reminded of the enormity and the consequences of my past mistakes around the 15th of every month when the was automatically withdrawn from my account. It really sucked in the beginning, but eventually over years my shame turned into something that more closely resembled determination. Wiping out the loans one by one helped with that, and eventually all I had to focus on was Uncle Sam and the great state of CA.
There's a whole lot of relevant experiences during this phase of my life. More mistakes were made periodically and I eventually got the help I needed. There's a lot that went down, good and bad and everything in between...but this is already a long post so let me get to the real good stuff and close it out.
I just got the news today that I have completely satisfied all of my tax related debt. I'm really proud of myself for somehow pulling this off and I'm really glad to have the people in my life who were there for me in ways that I don't know I'll ever be able to repay. I still don't fully understand how I managed to do it because there were many, mannnnny moments of profound self-doubt, uncertainty, and forces totally out of my ability to control.
But I did it. I fuckin actually pulled it off. Jesus Christ. Hard to put into words this feeling right now compared with the moment of seeing the dollar amount of how much damage I had actually caused. The levels of truly fuckedness I was at cannot be overstated. And today the balance is ZERO. Holy shit lol.
Anyways. It goes without saying that I obviously could not have done all that without my viewers and community that made this career possible for me. I somehow made it through all that mess, at times having to be carried somewhat. And in the process of all of that, I discovered a newfound kind of drive and love for the work I get to do. I could not have done that alone.
You guys saved my fucking ASS my god. So thanks for that!😬
PS - to anyone reading this right now considering a career in professional poker, I would personally not recommend it.
I’m in disbelief… still desperate to think this is part of an elaborate prank. That seems like something he’d do, right? The truth is, no matter how desperate I am to not believe it, my friend Oliver has passed away.
Oliver was such a unique soul, he had an ability that was unmatched by anyone else I know; to make friends in all corners of the world. Sincere friendship too, not just internet friendships of convenience.
He was one of the funniest people I’ve ever known. His style of self-deprecation was universal. Every media appearance he’s ever done was hilarious, refreshing and unique in a way that only he could bring.
He was a true artist, in every sense of the word. Everything he brought into the world, he brought with his true self. Every time he would come on our show, it would involve weeks of lengthy conversations of planning and brainstorming. Ordinary was never an option. It had to be the best possible appearance. And it always was.
Music and film were his true passions. He produced every music video, every song with every ounce of his soul. He spent every dime to bring his vision to life. He had no use for money beyond what it could do to improve his art. He used to laugh about how he annoyed his label because he was always hitting them up for cash advances for his next big project.
His support team was composed of his childhood friends, proof that he was the type of person that was fiercely loyal to those he loved. The type of genuine person that kept the same friends for life. And he was always adding more and more friends along the way.
He spent the last year traveling the world. Traveling across every inch. Visiting places I would never dream of going. He wanted to know the world and all its people, all the different types of ways people lived, so he could become an even more profound artist. I could see him evolving, growing, maturing, and the essence of what he collected was clear: love, friendship, art. All the things that transcended borders and time. Last we spoke, he was planning to go to Antarctica.
“I totally get it if you can’t but it will be really special and would mean the world if you came through! Would love to see you both.”
That was the last thing he ever said to me. He was having an album release party. We didn’t make it.
Everything he touched was better for it. Every person he met was more whole for it. As a person, I’ve lost a dear friend and collaborator. But the real tragedy is that the world lost a true artist, a passionate and gifted story teller, and a radiant light that shined upon so many of us. His light is now extinguished and my life, and the world, is darker for it.
I hope I can be more like Oliver Tree when I grow up. Bon voyage, my friend. See you on the other side. Life goes on and on and on without you.
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Thanks for your critique, Janet. We actually tried a couple of episodes where House (Hugh Laurie) (please put the brackets in the right place) gets it right first time, but they were only 6 minutes long. NBC weren’t happy. Then we tried some where House never gets it right and the patient dies. The audience wasn’t happy.
One could apply your trenchant analysis to other art forms: JS Bach wrote 30 Goldberg variations on the same chord structure; Frida Kahlo painted 50 portraits of herself; Henry Moore, what??
The point is, or was, variations on a theme; if all you see is hospital, medical blah blah, then it wasn’t meant for you.
Nonetheless, I look forward to your first novel!
Reporting from the Financial Times on Xinjiang remains incredibly grim:
* In some areas, 90% of children are taken from parents to be educated in boarding schools where they aren't allowed to speak Uyghur
* Officials monitor who eats during Ramadan and report those who skip meals
* Basic items like prayer mats and religious text are considered illegal contraband
* Adult Uyghur women are pressured to marry Han Chinese men, and there are official goals to sterilize a certain % of them.
* Xinjiang has the largest prison capacity in the world relative to population
* Huge numbers of Uyghur prisoners are now being shipped across the country in forced labor schemes, as a way to dodge Xinjiang sanctions/boycotts
* The CCP shut down all 10 existing Uyghur-language publishers, none remain. They fed one university's book collection into a shredder.
There's a lot going on the world, but it's worth remembering that China is still actively engaged in cultural genocide. They're barely even hiding it, they openly talk about the need to 'correct' Uyghur culture and create 'ethnic unity'. They are openly destroying an entire culture as efficiently as they can, cutting children off from parents, restricting language, restricting religious practice, forcing sterilizations and intermarriage, imprisoning anyone who resists the tiniest amount and shipping them out to forced labor factories. That is what the CCP is.
https://t.co/gHK9ZS38Vx
Join @stephenfhayes and @JonahDispatch for a special Dispatch town hall on the “summer of partisanship,” the latest overseas developments, America’s upcoming 250th, and updates from The Dispatch.
Tune in Thursday, June 4 at 8 p.m. ET on Zoom. https://t.co/F8ewyFFChb
Six months ago, doctors gave @BenSasse three to four months to live. He’s still here.
Ben Sasse sat down with Dispatch senior editor @McCormackJohn to talk about faith, suffering, family, and death. Here's what he had to say: ⬇️ (1/6)
"What’s most incredible is not that Platner would attempt to spin something that is obviously disqualifying. It’s that the leaders of his party are accepting that spin." -- @mikenelson586:
https://t.co/bmqXgCvFAm
I want to express my love for our Nordic and Baltic allies for supporting us without blackmail, stupid demands, political theater and bitching lecturers about how we name shit while we fight to defend ourselves and Europe.
The only people I actually genuinely respect 🙂
A notable promotion for Rubio's right-hand man who also has close ties to the vice president. Earlier this year, I explored the extensive connections between Rubio and Vance's inner circles. https://t.co/Zo1Vs9XKfn