Nomohal

[Lake Cornelia Research Management @CorneliaLake]

$SIVB $SBNY $KRE $SPY

JPow has used the nukes. Near perfect regulatory response and what market needed (and in our view what should have been done). Still reading but that is first take. They have done all they can to (1) slow a likely bank run, (2) backstopped the system and (3) limited free-rider risk by killing $SBNY too.

Liquidity facility with margin rate at 100% of par and you can take the extra collateral to the discount window at the new, 100% of par, margin rates. However, you have to give a parent guarantee if you draw on this (ie recourse) so puts fed pari with holdco bonds on non-pledged collateral. This was needed and matters because now you can't have a bank run on a solvent entity (which was possible given how quick $SIVB unwound).

They killed $SBNY. Depositors will get made whole. This gives fed cover to show it isn't a bail out and gives the politicians another body. They made clear in the $SBNY release that bonds (and equity) are getting zero'd. $SBNY might have lived with these new facilities and this eliminates some free rider risk. Had FED not acted, $SBNY was the first to die Monday. $SBNY and $SIVB managements will now face ewarren & co for the next 6+ months.

All $SIVB depositors will be made whole and have access to their money on Monday. This is incredibly big as it ensures that people can trust their cash. We can't live in a system where people don't trust their bank account.

Money will continue to flow out of regional banks into larger firms, but expect this to be more off movement from banks 4 -20 into 1-4 then anything else.

More implications to come.

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

⚠️ BREAKING: US NONFARM PAYROLLS ACTUAL 372K (FORECAST 268K, PREVIOUS 390K) $MACRO

[Nick Gerli @nickgerli1]

🔥Well that was fast.

Phoenix, AZ now has MORE Homes for Sale in 2022 than it did at Pandemic Start. +125% Inventory Surge in 2 Months.

Buyers are gone. Sellers are desperate. This is what start to a Housing Crash looks like. 🏠📉

Source: https://t.co/KfJP3C3Y7H

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

Germany's growth model has been to import cheap energy from Russia, use that to assemble manufactured goods and export those goods to the rest of the world. While Germany now seeks new energy suppliers, its trade balance and that of the Euro zone will look ugly. That's all...

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb]

2) The server may be slow, so this is the gist.
Basically those who talk about correlation stocks-bonds (while smoking you with details) have the reasoning abilities & clarity of mind of overactive circus monkeys accidentally given steroids.

[Peter Zeihan @PeterZeihan]

This is a VERY good sign. If the Russians - after 22 years of Putin and only 130 days of war - are already defaulting to 1960s munitions, then Russia's long-term military capacity is already breaking. https://t.co/OuPuNoK8zu

[Santiago Capital @SantiagoAuFund]

IMO, the ability to keep on's mind, when everyone else is losing theirs, will be the primary determinent in how investors do over the next few years.

With that in mind, let's do a little test...

How many soccer balls do you see in the picture below?

1/

[Graham Stephan @GrahamStephan]

The used car market is on the brink of an auto loan collapse that can shake the entire industry.

I am shocked that more people are not talking about this!

We are facing a 2008-ish scenario in the used car market and honestly, it's a disaster waiting to happen.

A 🧵

[Frances 'Cassandra' Coppola @Frances_Coppola]

The financials in Voyager's press release reveal just how bad their situation is. They have a massive hole in their balance sheet labelled "3AC". Nearly three-quarters of their assets have gone missing. https://t.co/WzwnTCwqOE

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

US ISM MFG. NEW ORDERS INDEX ACTUAL 49.2 (FORECAST 52, PREVIOUS 55.1) $MACRO

[Jeffrey P. Snider @JeffSnider_EDU]

China's new "RMB" reserve pool is - almost certainly will be - funded in US$s. So, it's not an RMB liquidity program rather a Euro$ insurance policy. Why? CNY falling more, for one thing, as China's economy (imports) falling off even more.

https://t.co/FkatuEW3fi

[otteroooo @otteroooo]

NEXO FOUNDER & FAMILY SIPHONED FUNDS FROM CHARITY FOR SICK KIDS, USED DONATIONS AS PERSONAL SLUSH FUND, EVEN BUILT A PALACE FOR THEMSELVES

Evidences presented in full by otter below

no bueno!

🦦 👇🏼 🧵 🦦

[Nomohal @nomohal]

Live view dealing with demand

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

FED'S POWELL: US INFLATION IS A CONSEQUENCE OF VERY STRONG DEMAND.

[TRADING ECONOMICS @tEconomics]

Services PMI in the United States decreased to 51.60 points in June from 53.40 points in May of 2022. https://t.co/j2GKlgiAJN

[Joey Politano 🏳️‍🌈 @JosephPolitano]

A headline showing robust Russian economic growth goes viral—leaving out that this data comes from before the invasion of Ukraine and that the Russian government expects a massive decline in GDP this year.

This is a perfect example of how misinformation spreads on social media.

[otteroooo @otteroooo]

Celsius Network will undergo restructuring (98% certain)

What is restructuring?

What does this mean for "depositors" with their funds still stuck?

Is there chance to get your funds back?

Here is a thread to explain what's next with Celsius Network and cautious alpha

👇🏼 🧵

[Lucas Nuzzi @LucasNuzzi]

Celsius calls itself a "network" or a "lender"

But in reality, they operate more like a highly-leveraged hedge fund.

Their business model consists of deploying user deposits across DeFi protocols with the goal of maximizing yield.

1\ A thread on what went wrong 🧵

[Sofia Horta e Costa @SofiaHCBBG]

Property sales in major Chinese cities (chart by BofA as of June 8). Still very low.

[Michael Green @profplum99]

Airports are NOT packed. Airlines reduced capacity and PLANES are packed. Big difference. Seasonally adjusted we remain 20% below trend.

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: 🇰🇷 South Korea is set to introduce legal safeguards to prevent a recurrence of the recent $LUNA and $UST collapse.