nonswad

Macro finance, investing and society. Exploring blockchain, decentralization and Cosmos ecosystem.

[nonswad @nonswad]

I’m more optimistic about the $OSMO and Cosmos eco. Great presentation @sunnya97!

Osmo team is powering the arrival of $BTC to #Cosmos eco.
BTC’s lack of app layer could be solved by connecting Cosmos and $BTC. $BTC would be used as a base collateral for the booming ecosystem.

[nonswad @nonswad]

@LynAldenContact @thetrocro Looking at some metrics Antrophic models should be better for you (less overly agreeable) than OpenAI models. Try them if you already haven’t

[nonswad @nonswad]

@RyanSAdams Idk why inorganic as crypto was weak during last month with s&p going up. Now with it having a red day crypto had a bigger red day. Not saying it wont recover tho

[nonswad @nonswad]

@cburniske I think it is easier for people to do it that way, but it’s not better.

[nonswad @nonswad]

@bdquinn @ys134a You can change the distribution of the money supply increase - from budget deficit (public) to private sector. It’s better for socioeconomic mobility.

[nonswad @nonswad]

@fejau_inc @conksresearch @SnipingTrends @chumbawamba22 @Bluntz_Capital So the tga drawdown = rrp rise. It mean the money market funds injected the new liquidity from tga to rrp, making the overall liquidity in the system unchanged short term. However structural change is that the one who controls the money is changed from the gov to money markt fund

[KKGB @INArteCarloDoss]

There is a ton of theories out there on why rates sold off. You heard them all.

Truth is no one has a fucking clue. Rates (mostly long real) are mean-reverting within trends.

When they go down, they relax financial conditions and are less taxing on the economy which helps it bounce a bit back, which begets higher rates, etc…

But sometimes, a set of circumstances delays the effect (think a Trump induced change of expectations or an external shock etc), and then lags get built-in and when they resolve you get explosive moves.

This last round of reals spiking back close to 2008 levels and TP snapping back above it’s 25 years average has not showed it’s ugly head in the data yet, compounded by lots of distortions in expectations.

Bedrock of potential explosive moves.

[nonswad @nonswad]

@NickTimiraos It doesnt have real problems to fear so the yield inflates the importance of small things

[nonswad @nonswad]

@BobEUnlimited No more aggressive printing* lets say

[nonswad @nonswad]

@BobEUnlimited Wasn’t “velocity” the obvious answer? Sharp increase in M2 in 2020 as a Covid response. A lot of that money was stored in the “reserves” as people didn’t need all of that at once. It slowly started getting into the system as no more printing since end of 2022.

[Mustafa Al-Bassam @musalbas]

Too high IMO, we should make the Celestia min fee lower.

You should think of Celestia fees today as being $0. This is because the min fee is set above a small value above $0 to ensure spam resistance, not to make profit.

The end goal for Celestia is to achieve fee revenue though economy of scale: by providing abundant permissionless blockspace (1GB blocks) to applications that are only possible with abundant blockspace.

Similar to how fibre optic Internet enabled new applications like 4K video streaming, abundant blockspace enable new applications like on-chain AI (eg @ritualnet), user-friendly micropayments (@payy_link), fully on-chain social media, etc.

Until blockspace is more saturated, trying to extract a profit from the current small size of the blockspace market is hilariously short-sighted, and you can't convince me otherwise, sorry. And I'm saying this even though Celestia is currently 50% of the DA market. The entire pie today is hilariously small.

I haven't been in crypto since 2010 so that we can enable the same old crypto use cases, just with a different architecture. We're here to enable things that are only possible on infrastructure like Celestia. https://t.co/C0sTbI0qwM

[Celestia @celestia]

Announcing $100M in new fundraising, bringing the total raised to $155M.

With Celestia underneath ✨, developers can deploy high-throughput, unstoppable applications with full-stack customizability.

https://t.co/gOdTLqV353

[nonswad @nonswad]

@fejau_inc What about sell the rumor buy the news? Bond market isn’t Nostradamus and not an every oscillation in the treasury yield means a new message about the future of the economy.

[Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity]

At 23 months old, this bull market does not seem old enough yet for me to conclude that it’s over.
Meanwhile, the rotation out of the mega growers into everything else continues, with the Mag 7 now underperforming the S&P 500 equal weighted index by 9% over the past 3 months.
The main risk from my perspective continues to be the “math” of what happens to the overall index when its largest components are passing the baton to the smallest ones. Can the market advance in that scenario? Recent history suggests no. So, we may well be in a market cycle in which most stocks go up while the index doesn’t. These are the unintended consequences of mega cap dominance. Per the chart below, mega cap valuations still have some catching up to do.
If the Mag 7 are “done” (which is not a conclusion I am prepared to make just yet), it will be tough for the headline indices to advance at the rate that they have since the October 2022 lows.

[nonswad @nonswad]

@BobEUnlimited Yeah, but isn’t the income growth actually a delayed money distribution of increased M2 from fiscal and monetary printing? So income growth cannot run forever without a sufficient fiscal/monetary support.

[nonswad @nonswad]

@sunnya97 It was my home dex chain.

I'm worried it could become irrelevant (and insecure) if ATOM and Cosmos continue to decline, especially with Celestia not stepping up to succeed as a new leader for application-specific chains.

[nonswad @nonswad]

@DannyDayan5 Interesting how during post GFC period, in good times (2010-2020), CA savings rate was going down, while the US was going up. Now, in bad times, vice versa.

[nonswad @nonswad]

@JoaVieira20 @ITC_Macro Mechanism of the Fed to pump money into the system

[Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity]

One by-product of the emerging Fed easing cycle is that the US is now potentially transitioning from a period of fiscal expansion and monetary restriction to a regime where the Fed (presumably) returns to a neutral policy, while the fiscal expansion continues. It could bring us closer to a regime of pure fiscal dominance. That suggests a weaker dollar, and higher gold prices (and other real assets). Indeed, we can already see gold making new highs.
In theory, this emerging dynamic should also benefit that other (aspiring) store of value: Bitcoin. However, Bitcoin has already rallied from $15,574 last year to its recent high of $73,798, and is now in line with the level that might be suggested by both its adoption curve and real rates. So perhaps Bitcoin has already front-run this new chapter in the fiscal-monetary plot and is now passing the baton to gold (however temporarily).
I see gold and Bitcoin as different players on the same team. Now that Bitcoin is becoming a more mature asset class, I anticipate it should become less boom/bust-like (boring is good!), less volatile, and perhaps less correlated. Much like there is a gold/silver ratio (around which the two assets rotate), there is also a Bitcoin/gold ratio. I suspect that as Bitcoin continues to grow up, it will be more closely anchored by its adoption curve (and real rates), while rotating around its relative valuation against gold and other stores of value. Welcome to adulthood!

[nonswad @nonswad]

@TheFlowHorse Looser monetary policy that will boost investments and interest in riskier assets

[nonswad @nonswad]

@Wickex2 @noble_xyz Honest question, have they shown the interest in doing so?
Thinking they are on the rise recently, while $ATOM is struggling. Not looking like a dynamic they can profit from ATM, so why do that?