What you do between cycles is analogous to surfing. You can’t catch a wave by staying ashore. You need to stay in the ocean, sitting patiently on your board, in-tune with the water. As a wave forms, you’ll feel it. You can’t feel a wave forming sitting outside the water.
sure, scam cartels existed back then in the OG times from Telegram groups to coordinated mass media attacks.
ICOs were literally pumpfun on steroids. the first big scammer attack wave came thanks to Ethereum. that attracted all kinds of scammers and con artists from all over the world. it was literally a talent contest.
people had much more money than nowadays and lost most of it. the bear market was a direct result of it.
scammers regrouped, many retired, some formed different things that rotated into the DeFi era and NFT era. but it was not normalized like it is today.
do you understand that?
“crypto back then was so easy”
- mf who’s never traded inverse perps a day in their life
- never experienced exchange insolvency
- never had their wallet hacked/drained
- never witnessed a stablecoin depeg
YOU mfs have it easy. all you have to do is trade well - nothing more
A lot of the trading discourse is poor because people overly focus on being right/wrong (batting avg) at a point in time (one at bat), rather than looking at slugging percent/wOBA (how much do you make when you're right vs lose when you're wrong)
Sizing+riding convictions >>
Most of what Technical Analysis offers you ultimately boils down to one of two bets: either price will keep going (trend following) or price will come back (mean reversion). That’s it.
Once you understand that, you stop collecting indicators and start asking better questions. You’ll understand more about trading than most people who’ve spent years studying candlestick formations without any rationale behind it.
positions becoming less risky as the price goes up is probably one of the most difficult mental hurdles to get over
there's a fine line between the market beginning to see the same things you're seeing vs a name just getting crowded and running out of marginal buyers
There are plenty of noob sayings that will give you zero insight, and one of the most thrown around is "the trend is your friend". I think it's the one where expectations and reality are so far apart that it just completely destroys your soul. Because most of the time, the trend is not your friend at all. He's a bipolar lunatic gaslighting you into believing he's reliable. When you actually try to grab this supposed friend's hand, he gets you rekt like 70% of the time. You're sitting in drawdown, just getting hammered day after day, week after week.
But then that other 30% pays for all of it, which is the twisted part. You're basically being paid for taking a schizo as friend, someone who turns on you constantly, beats you down repeatedly, but occasionally comes through big and saves your ass. And the whole time, everyone around you keeps telling you "yeah man, he's your friend, such a great guy, trust him," while you're just getting destroyed over and over waiting for those rare moments when this psychotic ret@rd actually helps you out instead of spitting in your face like he does most days.