JC Estrad

Newton allegedly said that he could “calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.”

[JC Estrad @norriegche07]

@BobEUnlimited @thedailyshot Can you specify what kind of bonds these institutionals are in???

[JC Estrad @norriegche07]

👀👇

[Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited]

Interesting to see the 30yr is increasingly not buying the structural nominal growth acceleration narrative.

[JC Estrad @norriegche07]

👀👇

[Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited]

Tick Tock, Motherfucker

While most folks in the markets focus on the supply squeeze being a little better than expected, inventories are drawing down at a pace that risks a significant squeeze in just a few months.

https://t.co/wGW3cdpy19

[JC Estrad @norriegche07]

👀👇

[The Daily Spurgeon @dailyspurgeon]

Faith is believing that Christ is what He is said to be, and that He will do what He has promised to do, and then to expect this of Him.

[JC Estrad @norriegche07]

@FreightAlley @DonMiami3 This pop won't last much longer without associated job gains.... have fun while it lasts...

[JC Estrad @norriegche07]

👀👇

[The Daily Spurgeon @dailyspurgeon]

My sole hope for heaven lies in the full atonement made upon Calvary’s cross for the ungodly. On that I firmly rely. I have not the shadow of a hope anywhere else.

[JC Estrad @norriegche07]

👀👇

[The Daily Spurgeon @dailyspurgeon]

The doctrine of the atonement is to my mind one of the surest proofs of the divine inspiration of Holy Scripture. Who would or could have thought of the just Ruler dying for the unjust rebel?

[JC Estrad @norriegche07]

👀👇

[The Daily Spurgeon @dailyspurgeon]

Friend, the Lord can blot out all your sins. I make no shot in the dark when I say this. “All manner of sin and of blasphemy shall be forgiven unto men.” Though you are steeped up to your throat in crime, He can with a word remove the defilement, and say, “I will, be thou clean.”

[JC Estrad @norriegche07]

@nickuva @InterstellarUAP Yip...

[JC Estrad @norriegche07]

👀👇

[The Daily Spurgeon @dailyspurgeon]

His own Son became the substitute for the guilty, and in their room and stead he suffered the wrath of God for man; so that now the severity of God is upheld in the death of Jesus, and the mercy of God in the forgiveness of those for whom he died.

[JC Estrad @norriegche07]

👀👇

[C. S. Lewis @CSLewisDaily]

“If I find in myself a desire which no experience in this world can satisfy, the most probable explanation is that I was made for another world.” - C.S. Lewis

[JC Estrad @norriegche07]

👀👇

[The Daily Spurgeon @dailyspurgeon]

Can any man here estimate the number of his own sins from the first transgression of his childhood until grey old age, or to his present period of life? “Who can understand his errors? Cleanse thou me from secret faults.”

[JC Estrad @norriegche07]

@BobEUnlimited Now do Turkey...

[JC Estrad @norriegche07]

👀👇

[The Daily Spurgeon @dailyspurgeon]

If you are a believer in Jesus Christ yourself, the unregenerate will misunderstand and misrepresent you; but if everybody is pleased with you it is pretty clear that God is not, for “the friendship of this world is enmity with God.”

[JC Estrad @norriegche07]

👀👇

[C. S. Lewis @CSLewisDaily]

“Jesus Christ did not say, ‘Go into all the world and tell the world that it is quite right.’” - C.S. Lewis

[JC Estrad @norriegche07]

👀👇

[The Daily Spurgeon @dailyspurgeon]

The person who never strikes you as having anything singular about him, who is just like men of the world, is probably no Christian.

[JC Estrad @norriegche07]

👀👇

[The Daily Spurgeon @dailyspurgeon]

No man but a Christian can understand a Christian. The spiritual discerneth all things, yet he himself is discerned of no man. Carnal minds cannot make us out,” for we are dead, and our life is hid with Christ in God.”

[JC Estrad @norriegche07]

👀👇

[The Daily Spurgeon @dailyspurgeon]

Fall into the bosom of Jesus, and he will not cast you away, for he is able to save to the uttermost them that come unto God by him.

[JC Estrad @norriegche07]

👀👇

[C. S. Lewis @CSLewisDaily]

“God, who foresaw your tribulation, has specially armed you to go through it, not without pain but without stain.” - C.S. Lewis

[JC Estrad @norriegche07]

👀👇

[EndGame Macro @onechancefreedm]

The Bond Market’s Insurance Policy Just Broke

U.S. Treasuries are going through the breakdown of the old bond market insurance model.

The Treasury Total Return Index has been in drawdown for roughly 69 months, the longest stretch in more than 100 years of data. At the worst point, it was down around 18% from the 2020 high. TLT is still down around 40% from its April 2020 peak.

This is a historic reset in how investors price inflation, deficits, duration, and safety.

Why It Happened

The trap was the 2020 starting point.

Yields were near historic lows, so investors bought long duration bonds with almost no income cushion. Then inflation returned, the Fed hiked, QT removed a major buyer, deficits exploded, energy shocks came back, and foreign demand became more selective.

Duration punished anyone who owned long term cash flows at the wrong yield.

Treasuries are still the world’s deepest collateral asset, but they are no longer treated as costless safety. They now carry inflation risk, fiscal risk, duration risk, political risk, and foreign demand risk.

The Old Playbook Broke

For 40 years, bonds worked as portfolio insurance. Growth weakened, yields fell. Stocks sold off, Treasuries rallied. The Fed pivoted, duration got paid.

That system needed falling inflation, globalization, cheap energy, foreign reserve accumulation, and central banks that could cut without reigniting inflation.

The 2020s attacked all of it.

The Energy Shock Twist

But this is where the setup gets interesting.

If today’s inflation is mainly energy shock inflation, then it may contain the seed of its own reversal.

Energy prices can push headline inflation higher at first. That keeps the Fed cautious and makes bonds look unattractive. But if households and businesses cannot absorb the cost, the shock eventually becomes demand destruction.

People drive less. Businesses cut costs. Margins compress. Credit tightens. Layoffs rise. Commodity demand weakens.

That is how an inflation shock slowly turns into a growth shock.

And that is where Treasuries can come back to life.

The Global Rush

A global financial crisis or external catalyst could absolutely reverse the Treasury bear market.

But the first rush may be into dollars, bills, and cash like instruments. Not necessarily the long end right away.

In a dollar shortage, countries may sell longer Treasuries to raise dollars, defend currencies, or pay for energy imports. That can pressure the long end even while the front end starts pricing Fed cuts.

The real turn comes when the market shifts from needing dollars to needing duration.

That is the moment investors stop chasing return and start chasing survival.

What Ends It

The clean version requires falling inflation, stable oil, cooling labor, credible Fed cuts, and smooth Treasury auctions.

The uglier version is more decisive.

Consumer credit cracks, CRE stress, labor weakness, private credit problems, or global funding stress force a flight into Treasuries. Yields fall because the market finally realizes the underbelly is no longer contained.

That ends the bear market, but for bad reasons.

My Take

The danger is a growth scare where long bonds do not rally cleanly.

If inflation stays sticky, deficits stay huge, oil stays unstable, or reserve managers sell Treasuries to defend currencies, the front end may price Fed cuts while the long end refuses to cooperate.

Treasuries can rally from here.

But the cleanest catalyst may not be good news.

It may be the delayed realization that the energy shock was not just inflationary.

It was recessionary.