I hate it when people mar an otherwise reasonable narrative with ignorant "never" claims. This one is triple wrong.
In 1600, after his deposition con the Swedish throne, the king of Poland-Lithuania launched a Polish invasion of Swedish Livonia and Estonia.
In 1609, Poland-Lithuania began a war of aggression against Muscovy (officially—Polish nobles had already been intervening in Muscovy for a few years) that temporarily saw the Polish king make his own son tsar.
In 1700 Augustus the Strong, King of Poland-Lithuania, attacked Swedish Livonia, helping to kick off the Great Northern War. While it is true that his troops were mostly Saxon, he invaded from Poland-Lirhuania and was head of state, so this was certainly a war of aggression (and one that would cost Poland dearly).
Assessment of Attrition Warfare efficiency, concluding that 2026 is more favourable to Russian forces than any other year prior, despite yielding slower territorial gains.
https://t.co/gFba87xoeP
The “Russian losses increased” narrative is a fabrication, since all evidence available point to the opposite. Vehicle losses have decreased significantly compared to 2025, with armor down by a factor of 5 in average. (source: Oryx)
Mediazona’s in-year 2026 personnel-loss count remains 50% below 2025, without a valid explanation. The claim that bodies are harder to retrieve is insufficient: the battlefield and grey zone remain as dangerous as in 2025. Russian courts process MIA-to-KIA cases at high rates, and a body is not required to file for procedure. There has also been no specific additional documented enforcement of obituaries concealment which could explain such a sharp decrease.
Regardless, there are absolutely no OSINT data available supporting claims of increased total Russian (or Ukrainian) casualties in 2026. For all we know, it could be inferior, equivalent, higher...
The 2026 attrition ratio is more favorable for Russia than in 2025. Progress has slowed but stays within 2024 ranges once the AFU Kursk advances are factored in.
2025 was peculiar: the Kursk pocket collapse and rout destabilized Ukrainian forces and enabled rapid Russian advances front wide for 6 months.
All signs indicate that 2026 reflects a more balanced attrition approach after the extremely costly 2024 and the front-wide pressure of 2025 that leveraged the post-Kursk situation, but at high cost.
Another myth is: “if attrition worked Russian advances should accelerate”. In attrition warfare theories, the principle is to cause collapse of the adversary to enable decisive gains; not that advances will gradually increase in a linear way, which is subject to both side’s respective effort at a given time. For instance, the weaker side could expend massive resources in a surge attempt, stabilising in apparence the front but collapsing 6 months later.
In 2025, Ukrainian forces suffered a sector collapse in the Sudja pocket, which rendered an entire part of the army combat ineffective. Hence, advances ensued.
Nevertheless, Ukraine has accelerated mobilization (aggressively) and alternative means to recover, and is nowhere near a collapse of its ground military forces for the time being. Though, with a mobilization ratio currently standing at around 18-20% of the remaining military aged male population, it may be nearing sensitive levels.
The point is to separate military objectives: conquest of the 4 oblasts against which Moscow can measure military success, and political objectives: demilitarisation and neutrality of Ukraine, central to the strategic settlement Moscow continues to seek. (Ideally enforced by a favorable regime change)
This matters because to achieve its strategic political goal, Russia needs to continue investing in its expensive ballistic and drone programs to collapse the economy at the rear, and make rational choices for expenditures. Losing 4,000 armor a year is not an option anymore.
The ground offensive’s primary goal is therefore not military conquest but applying pressure on the entire Ukrainian economic and social apparatus, to support the achievement of the political ambition. Seizing Donbas is a secondary and corollary territorial objective, because the political goal naturally secures the territorial one.
Understanding this principle is the basis of analysing this war correctly.
Moscow’s objectives in this conflict have not changed, but the strategy adopted has been evolving regularly based on various factors, including setbacks. Kyiv has also been adapting continuously to prevent its success. In 2026, the military situation has somehow improved for Ukraine, but the social and economic ones deteriorated at an accelerated pace.
There is however no way to tell whether the Kremlin’s plan will ultimately succeed, even partially.
See an earlier analysis in reply to understand attrition warfare performance measurement methods.
#UkraineRussiaWar #Strategy #Attrition
@clement_molin Ukraine collapse already happened. It's a country with a severe demographic crisis and living on international charity, for basicaly everything. You just don't read it on the news.
@yamlima1@hudsonwarmap At times you would think it s the contrary. Look at what happened with krinky and the final phase of sudzha and several other cases
@ReneDillema@TRUTHdude22@AMK_Mapping_ Body exchange ratio 1:28, causality ratio 1:15 both in favor of Russians. Operation Vivaldi factually a bloody greyzone massacre for Ukrainians but succesfull PR agitprop brainwashing their white neocolonial unipolar Rules Based Order axis useful delusional idiots.
@utopianalien De acuerdo en cómo esto es un revés enorme para los planes de Israel en américa latina, lo que no creo es que se vayan a quedar quietos 4 años esperando elecciones, los sionistas son bestias sanguinarias y lo que no logran con el engaño lo buscan con la espada.
brasil era la joya de la corona, si les digo, lo de ayer arruina un plan que venía gestándose desde hace raaaato, lo que iban a hacer en 2027 tendrán que hacerlo en 2030, si es que acaso nada más les sale mal, es difícil que vuelvan a tener una oportunidad tan clara como ayer
Estados Unidos y Europa les roban tanto el oro como el petróleo, Estados Unidos les bombardeó, les bloqueó económicamente lo que hizo que tuvieran hambre y que dejar su país pero el problema son Colombia, Argentina y México 🤡
@Theveripost This worked for several reasons:
1. Communities knew about one another and actually cared for one another.
2. People understood that the state is violence.
3. People made it expressly clear that violence will come to those that abuse them.
4. None of those values exist today.
El mapa de GTA San Andreas es una master class de cómo diseñar un mapeado…
Con apenas 38 km² (menos de lo que mide un pueblo pequeño) San Andreas se siente enorme y lleno de cosas por hacer, aprovecha al máximo la morfología del terreno, las vías y hasta los árboles💚💚