Jack

Ex Finance. Currently building B2B SaaS

[Jack @NotAAnalyst]

@MartinShkreli 7% discount rate feels low? should be like 10-12% ya?

[Jack @NotAAnalyst]

Asymmetrical upside right here.

[Ren @ren_stocks]

I'm long $AAOI.

This is one of the fastest growing companies in the whole space, and the fact that it's trading -35% from its ATH is just a gift I can't pass up. I've doubled down on my position and averaged up.

AAOI is one of my largest holdings. I've been in this name since 40, doubled down at 80, saw it go to ATH at 230 and now we're back at 145. Yeah, it's a high beta stock.

The AI buildout rotates across layers. Right now it's memory's turn again. Does that mean the pure photonics plays are done? Not in the slightest.

AAOI went through a complete makeover, from a sleepy CATV supplier to one of the fastest growing names in the space. And the revenue is going vertical:

Q2 guided to $180-198M, a 19-31% jump in one quarter. Full-year 2026 over $1.1 billion, up 141%.

800G shipped first volume to a major hyperscaler in Q1, and the real ramp starts now. 1.6T orders already in hand. The edge nobody else has: AAOI grows its own laser chips in-house on MOCVD. The CEO's words: "MOCVD is on complete backlog."

The rest of the industry waits in line for supply.

AAOI makes its own.

The constraint isn't demand. It's factories. Management confirmed demand exceeds supply through at least mid-2027. When supply is the bottleneck, you don't sell product, you allocate scarce capacity to whoever pays most.

The ramp shows how serious they are: 100K units/month exiting Q1, 650K+ by year-end, 930K+ by 2027.

The risks are real, customer concentration is extreme, it's volatile, it's priced for perfection. But none of that matters when hyperscalers buy every unit you can make. That $230 ATH is just a stepping stone.

I broke the whole thing down on my Substack, valuation, the concentration math, the CPO transition, the 3.2T roadmap, a 12-month price target. You can redeem a free paid post.

Go check it out.

https://t.co/vQBYY7sY8r

I'm long $AAOI. ⚡️

[Jack @NotAAnalyst]

Wrapped up two industry conferences and enterprise AI is way early

Most companies are not even talking about what agentic use cases to scale. Still stuck trying to understand the foundations: ontology, knowledge graphs, semantic layers, governed metrics, and how AI systems should reliably access business context.

Yes, software companies are moving fast and embedding AI deeply into CI/CD workflows.

But software is only a small slice of the enterprise economy.

The much bigger opportunity is bringing agentic AI to the rest ...

Staying long on ai infrastructure

[Jack @NotAAnalyst]

@FirstSquawk @grok. Explain this payroll tax

[Jack @NotAAnalyst]

@just_some_dev Down to work with on technical person on some side gigs?

[Jack @NotAAnalyst]

@NoLimitGains $10M minimum otherwise you basically homeless in LA

[Jack @NotAAnalyst]

@BasedHypnotist @BowTiedBull Like what?? Shits all the same in LA

[Jack @NotAAnalyst]

@btc881688 @grok what movie is this

[Jack @NotAAnalyst]

@btc881688 What movie is this

[Jack @NotAAnalyst]

@GrahamStephan People vote on these type of projects?

[Jack @NotAAnalyst]

@aleabitoreddit Can’t make everyone happy and some people really just want picks with no individual thought process.

[Jack @NotAAnalyst]

@aleabitoreddit I never chase parabolic moves like that

[Jack @NotAAnalyst]

@CDMCapital What an amazing call

[Jack @NotAAnalyst]

@aleabitoreddit Couldn’t be more true

[Jack @NotAAnalyst]

@SavaSavvich @aleabitoreddit Can you at least pretend to have some decency Savvich?

[Jack @NotAAnalyst]

@aleabitoreddit Media is trying to maximize views, calling it “meme” vs what you actually wrote. They bend the truth when they can.

[Jack @NotAAnalyst]

@k_a_y_b_e_e_ @aleabitoreddit @jseth53 He saying the premium is cheap right now. If you want direction. Buy the call. If you just want Vega expansion then buy the call and buy a put too.

[Jack @NotAAnalyst]

@aleabitoreddit should you play direction too? or just pul both long dates calls and puts so pure vol trade

[Jack @NotAAnalyst]

@ClownWorld There’s no way a neuro only makes $32k a month….