NotaForecaster

Do not do what I do. Bcs I am not a forecaster ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Husky @husky_vs]

HuskyWeatherBot is updated.

Big upgrade under the hood + new languages.

• 5.78M METAR observations (3.5 years) added to the core
• Station passports rebuilt from scratch (now seasonal + way more accurate)
• New metric: expected deviation from typical daily high
• Wind now modeled properly (direction × speed)
• Live passport read via /snap
• /simday upgraded with real distributions, peak timing + lock-in stats
• Real-time METAR event detection (wind shifts, clouds, rain, etc.)
• Full localization: EN / RU / CN / ES
• Korea switched to standard METAR (no more https://t.co/NNwZqjj7r4)
The bot now focuses less on raw forecasts and more on context + station behavior.

https://t.co/XNmdiBqHyh

[NotaForecaster @NotAForecaster]

@tsybka @PolymarketTrade Taking a looks myself
https://t.co/l4p97EFBDh

[NotaForecaster @NotAForecaster]

Strait of Hormuz.

Not saying I'm counting ships... But, c'mon. I'm counting ships 😅

[NotaForecaster @NotAForecaster]

Strait of Hormuz.

Not saying I'm counting ships... But, c'mon. I'm counting ships 😅

[Fey @fey_xbt]

A guy calls his broker and asks about egg futures.

Broker says they’re at 25 cents.

Guy says, “Alright, buy me 100 contracts.”

A week later he calls again.

Broker says, “Good call. They’re at 35 cents now.”

Guy gets excited and buys 1,000 more.

Few days later, he calls again. Eggs are at 50 cents.

Now he thinks he’s a genius, so he buys 100,000 contracts.

Next day they’re at 65 cents. He buys a million.

Then they’re at 95 cents. He buys another million.

Then $1.25. He buys another million.

Next day, eggs are trading at $1.75.

He finally thinks, alright, this is probably enough. Time to take profit.

So he tells his broker, “Sell 2 million contracts.”

After a long silence, broker finally says:

“Sell to who? You’re the egg guy.”

[Toon Matthew @ToonMatthewT1]

I spent the last 5 years asking 400 people a single question. It changed how I think about generating an edge in trading.

The question: Name a president that you don't think other people will name, keeping in mind that other people are also trying to name a president that others won't name.

Take a moment to answer before reading on.

The results map directly onto how I think about alpha.

Bucket the 45 presidents into 6 tiers by name recognition with Tier 1 being the most famous and Tier 6 the most obscure. The results show a clear bias toward obscurity—selections rise steadily from Tier 2 through Tier 6—with a sharp reverse-psychology spike back up at Tier 1. People favor going obscure ("Who would think of Millard Fillmore?") but many deploy maximum reverse psychology ("Washington is too obvious. Nobody will say him"). In reality, Washington and Fillmore are the two most common answers. [sorry, @dumborambo_, it is true]

The sweet spot is Tier 2: Clinton, JFK, Jefferson, both Bushes, Nixon, LBJ. Household names, but not top-of-mindnames. Out of 407 respondents, only 20 picked from this group. That is 16% of presidents, under 5% of selections. Most people are genuinely shocked to learn these are the best answers. [Maybe except for @Rigatohni, who picked the last unnamed president (George W. Bush)].

This is how I approach every market I've traded. Sports betting, options, commodities, prediction markets.

Tier 1 alpha ("Google has the best search engine," "Nvidia makes the chips") is real but saturated. The edge is gone before you arrive. Tier 6 alpha (tracking flight delays to beat sportsbooks, exotic statistical arbitrage) sounds clever but is almost always fruitless for the same reason: everyone who thinks they're being original is being original in the same direction.

Tier 2 alpha is the sweet spot. It is never complicated and does not require a Harvard PhD, but it is also never obvious enough that the crowd has caught on.

The smartest people I know have failed in trading because they couldn't believe Tier 2 alpha existed. Anything approachable, they assumed, had already been found by someone smarter. When I showed them edges that were statistically irrefutable, they called me a blind squirrel.

I used to half-believe them. But the more edges I find, the more the pattern holds. The best alpha is Tier 2. Once you see it, you'll wonder why you didn't see it sooner.

[BeefSlayer @BeefSlayer_]

Change to @Polymarket temperature markets starting May 27th.

Previously markets could resolve mid-day once WU logged a temp crossing a bracket.

Now they can't resolve until the NEXT day's first data point is published — meaning you're holding positions overnight.

Read the new rules before you trade.

[NotaForecaster @NotAForecaster]

@Hans323 More rewards, or fewer cities

[Hans323 @Hans323]

all rewards, the whole $20 are sponsored, so for May 24, polymarket itself has delegated $0 worth of rewards across around 50–60 markets

idk who had the genius idea to create so many cities and then provide absolutely no rewards

rewards wont fully fix the problem, but they would definitely help

[NotaForecaster @NotAForecaster]

Is the Ankara Surprise is real?🤓

[BeefSlayer @BeefSlayer_]

I will forever be grateful for the opportunities @Polymarket has given me with the weather markets. But how this current situation has been handled is pathetic and disappointing. The weather community has been voicing concerns about these issues for over a month with no fix. Now this mess. Mistakes happen, but the lack of real communication is causing hesitancy to continue on the platform. I personally have done over $1.5 million in volume, but I’m unsure if I will continue here.

[0X357 @0x3577]

In my opinion, for a big company as Polymarket, communication shouldn't be as flawed as it is today. we need to have key users in each specific market with direct communication to Polymarket staff. This would help a lot to get fast fixes and make announcements very clear.

@kea1on @mustafap0ly @williamlegate @shayne_coplan you need to care about the most valuable thing you have atm, the users of your platform 👍

We are going to more than 12 hours since the last night chaotic episode in weather markets and still without any answers about what will really happen with refunds.

[NotaForecaster @NotAForecaster]

@kea1on @SOXBT @devjoshstevens @0xsexybanana No more new cities pls

[NotaForecaster @NotAForecaster]

@Harnisc08225444 @kea1on @SOXBT @devjoshstevens @0xsexybanana @Polymarket So true

[Protrade @protrade47]

Recently, there has been some drawbacks on Polymarket weather markets volume as a consequence of some series of changes. I'm writing this thread to address problems, so that we can have a better market in future and get the problems fixed.

[Harnisch @Harnisc08225444]

Forecasts are at over 80F for today in Chicago.
Are you even trying @Polymarket ?

You take so much fees now and tell me you are not able to make some serious Brackets?

It isnt really that difficult even the Forecast in every newspaper would be more accurate.

[NotaForecaster @NotAForecaster]

Only enter the Lagos Temperature 🌡️ market if you are insane.

Why? Read this wrote up ⤵️

[that phone guy @atteonthephone]

In tonight's edition of my long-running segment "Wait, What Are We Betting On Again?", we'll delve into the tapestry of Nigerian weather.

[NotaForecaster @NotAForecaster]

@atteonthephone @PiratesPredict 🫡

Yeah. Well. It's always a nice way to make some money.

Use the resolution source.

[NotaForecaster @NotAForecaster]

@luishXYZ Wait until you use their UI on phone 🤡

[that phone guy @atteonthephone]

Today in Seoul - The thing that always happens happened again.

[maskache @Mask4che]

Seeing a lot of posts lately (mostly AI slop) hyping up certain traders while treating everyone on the other side of the trade like they’re stupid.

Respect the market. Respect your counterparty.

The person taking the opposite side of your bet isn’t an idiot. They just see the board differently. Even if they end up losing, their decision might have been mathematically sound at the time.

Polymarket is a lot like poker. The player who loses at the final table isn't stupid, and the winner isn't necessarily a genius. Just like weather forecasting, there are many valid models and different ways to find an edge.

Ultimately, it’s all about Expected Value (+EV). If you pay 10¢ for an event that has a true 30% probability of happening, that is a fantastic trade. But you still have a 70% chance of losing.

Stop judging decisions purely by the outcome.

Understand the math, and stay humble.