Notas de Inteligencia

Análisis de Estrategias. Por una cultura de la Inteligencia al servicio ciudadano. *Inteligencia es anticipación, todo lo demás es Información*

[Notas de Inteligencia @notasintel]

#Inteligencia #WMD #ADM

Mark Twain

*Lo que nos mete en problemas no es lo que no sabemos, sino lo que creemos con certeza y no es cierto*

https://t.co/rHABVaRBwF

[Notas de Inteligencia @notasintel]

Una sugerencia para los nuevos reclutadores del #CNI: no esperéis recibir CV, el talento no os llamará a la puerta, debéis salir a buscarlo

[Gonzalo Araluce @GonzaloAraluce]

El CNI trata de reforzar su plantilla y se lanza a la búsqueda de talento para puestos operativos y de inteligencia

Se lo contamos en @voz_populi https://t.co/EUyJg3aQNE

[Notas de Inteligencia @notasintel]

@SaTNiL01 @wish_or_truth @elmercurioAON De joven parecía simpático

[Wish or truth ? @wish_or_truth]

Aunque me adelanté en un año a la fecha real, les comparto este análisis de Junio de 2025 en el que intentaba analizar los incentivos por los que Pedro I " el sagaz " se vería " invitado " a abandonar La Moncloa antes de tiempo.
Un año después, parece que no íbamos muy desencaminados a la vista de los acontecimientos.

[Notas de Inteligencia @notasintel]

@lorenzoramirez Pronto tendremos el dilema de electricidad para calentarse o para centros de datos 😎

[Notas de Inteligencia @notasintel]

@jgalvezd_ @Ivn_unalcoyano @eris_28 @TheDevilOps @RGInvest O pegar un pelotazo y jubilarse a los 30 o 40 👍

[Notas de Inteligencia @notasintel]

@ElHiloRojoTV Tal cual

[Víctor San @vitosantanar]

El miedo al juicio de la tribu que representa, junto la exposición y sentirse "solo ante el peligro", lo llevaron a un nivel de estrés disfuncional.

Para comprenderlo imagina que su sistema nervioso es un motor, pues estuvo funcionando al corte de inyección todo el rato.

Cuando tienes miedo a los silencios cuando tienes público para no parecer inferior o débil, se pueden repetir palabras o hacer el clásico eeeeeeeeeemmmmm,etc...
Porque tú sistema de procesamiento 2 está trabajando a tope.

[Víctor San @vitosantanar]

El miedo al juicio de la tribu que representa, junto la exposición y sentirse "solo ante el peligro", lo llevaron a un nivel de estrés disfuncional.

Para comprenderlo imagina que su sistema nervioso es un motor, pues estuvo funcionando al corte de inyección todo el rato.

Cuando tienes miedo a los silencios cuando tienes público para no parecer inferior o débil, se pueden repetir palabras o hacer el clásico eeeeeeeeeemmmmm,etc...
Porque tú sistema de procesamiento 2 está trabajando a tope.

[𝙋𝙚𝙜𝙖𝙨𝙪𝙨 @pegasusQ2004]

Polonia: ¡Enorme derrota para el Eurogaga Donald Tusk en su golpe de Estado!

⤵️ ¡La Corte Suprema polaca acaba de anular las ordenanzas del 30 de octubre de 2026 emitidas por la presidenta nombrada por Tusk, Anna Korwin-Piotrowska, que suspendían las funciones de Bogdan Święczkowski (el verdadero presidente soberanista de la Corte Constitucional) y Bartłomiej Sochański (su vicepresidente)!
(cf: https://t.co/U1insuCU0x) 📷

¡La UE apoya a Tusk, pero la Corte Suprema de Polonia se mantiene al lado del presidente Nawrocki y del pueblo polaco en lucha!
¡La UE perderá! POLEXIT FREXIT ¡Rápido!

[Hector | 𝙴𝚕 𝙷𝚒𝚕𝚘 𝚁𝚘𝚓𝚘 @ElHiloRojoTV]

HILO 🧵 ¿Y SI LA ENTREVISTA DE BRONCANO A ABASCAL EN TVE FUERA ALGO MÁS QUE UNA ENTREVISTA FALLIDA?

Después de ver a Santiago Abascal en La Revuelta, hay algo que no consigo quitarme de la cabeza.

Mi percepción es que David Broncano, lejos de poner contra las cuerdas al candidato de VOX, terminó proyectando una imagen de inseguridad y falta de preparación que, a mi juicio, favoreció enormemente a su entrevistado.

Y entonces me planteé algo mucho más inquietante:

¿Y si aquella aparente incompetencia no hubiera sido accidental? ¿Y si la televisión pública estuviera contribuyendo, consciente o inconscientemente, a construir la popularidad de quien aspira a sustituir al actual gobierno?

Pero mi reflexión va todavía más lejos.

¿Y si el gobierno actual tuviera incentivos para abandonar el poder porque anticipa una crisis económica, social o geopolítica devastadora en Europa?

No afirmo que exista semejante operación. Es mi percepción, mi análisis y una hipótesis que quiero explorar.

Porque existen teorías de psicología social, comunicación de masas y ciencia política que permiten estudiar algunos de estos mecanismos.

[Ignacio Cembrero @icembrero]

Los que no parecen haber comprendido la naturaleza de esa relación tan especial entre #Marruecos e #Israel son los cientos de miles de marroquíes que se echaron a las calles para protestar contra la "normalización", es decir la estrecha cooperación entre ambos países. ¿Sabe usted que Marruecos en el país árabe donde más gente se manifestó contra la invasión de #Gaza?
https://t.co/09FtRFH4xG

[Notas de Inteligencia @notasintel]

@SaTNiL01 @elmercurioAON @wish_or_truth Lástima que no podamos acusar a Irán de ser una superpotencia en IA 😎

[Víctor San @vitosantanar]

Cómo cambian los tiempos, en los setenta se cargaron al Nixon ése por unas escuchas ilegales y hoy nos graban "legalmente" 24/7 empresas privadas con las apps de los smartphones sin saber que uso "comercial" se hará con esos datos.

Todo saldrá bien🥰

[Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand]

This is the biggest irony of the whole Alice Huang / Nvidia saga: the Chinese government actually doesn't want Nvidia chips and is actively keeping them out of the country.

Last year it even ordered Alibaba and ByteDance to cancel their Nvidia orders (https://t.co/T4ZMand2BD) and sent customs teams to the ports to check every advanced chip coming in (https://t.co/UFPerK7Cgp).

And right now 600,000 Nvidia H200s are stuck in Hong Kong because Beijing won’t let them into the country (https://t.co/epimhGPQYq)👇

Nvidia also explicitly frames this as a threat to its business in its latest annual report to the SEC: "The Chinese government has encouraged customers to purchase from our China-based competitors and discouraged customers from purchasing, importing, or using our data center products" (https://t.co/TQVwWuix83).

Why does China do that? Because every Nvidia chip a Chinese company buys is one that Huawei or Cambricon doesn’t sell, and domestic chips can only catch up if people actually buy them (which means money for R&D, etc.).

Which means that the notion that Chinese intelligence was running honeytraps to get more Nvidia chips into China gets the whole thing exactly backwards.

In fact, it looks like Megaspeed - Alice Huang's company - was a counter-reaction to official Chinese policy: a private sector workaround to these efforts by the Chinese government to curtail Nvidia.

As was widely reported - including by Western media - Megaspeed built data centers in Southeast Asia and rented their computing power to Alibaba, which the New York Times called "a backdoor way of getting access" to Nvidia chips (https://t.co/tu9Re4WdzM).

That is a backdoor not only - allegedly - around Washington’s export controls, but also around China's own efforts to wean its companies off Nvidia.

I can’t believe the Chinese government was too thrilled about it: it'd make just about zero sense for it to run countless domestic measures to prevent Alibaba from using Nvidia chips, yet at the same time have its top spy agency help the same Alibaba get Nvidia chips through the back door in Southeast Asia 🤷

At the end of the day, as with all such stories, you always need to look at "cui bono?": who benefits? Who benefitted is pretty clear:

- Nvidia itself: it's in the business of selling chips so a customer willing to spend billions of dollars on chips in Southeast Asia is a godsend. Again, as they themselves state in their SEC filings, not being able to tap into Chinese demand would have "a material and adverse impact on our business" (https://t.co/TQVwWuix83).

- Chinese companies like Alibaba: facts are, 1) Chinese chips haven't yet caught up, 2) Chinese chip companies' production capabilities are still limited and 3) Chinese tech firms' historical tech stack runs on Nvidia’s CUDA ecosystem, and rewriting years of code for Huawei chips is painful. Renting Nvidia chips in Southeast Asia is the easy way to stay competitive and serve customer demand in the meantime.

- The US, according to core members of the Trump administration: back in July last year, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick explained that the point of letting Nvidia sell more chips to China was to get Chinese developers "addicted to the American technology stack" (https://t.co/WpaKkS6gOG).

Who does NOT benefit, according to official Chinese policy, is the Chinese state, which has made tech self-reliance one of its foremost priorities.

Which means that, to believe the spy story, you have to believe that a person - Alice Huang - was effectively a spy paid by her own government while simultaneously sabotaging its tech self-reliance drive, which it has spent years and trillions of dollars on - pretty senseless.

Stranger things have happened, I guess, but it doesn't pass the smell test.

And there is another absolutely major contradiction in the media story. According to a Financial Times article published yesterday (https://t.co/7q1UEaUR4y), "a person who knows [Alice Huang] said they had been asked by MSS for information about her earlier this year after news emerged that Singapore was investigating the company in relation to chip-smuggling allegations. The agency wanted to find out more information about Huang, including the nature of her business and connections, the person said."

Which raises a damn obvious question: if she were indeed an MSS asset, why on earth would the MSS need to ask the people around her who she was and the nature of her business?

It's a complete contradiction with the spy story - but very much not a contradiction with what I described above: a private businesswoman running a workaround to Beijing’s own policy, which the Chinese security apparatus would naturally want to look into.

Especially since, around about the same time, Shanghai police detained her business partner, reportedly her husband, in a stock manipulation case (https://t.co/KXimvioTTd): also coherent with Chinese authorities looking into her network, and much harder to square with her being a prized MSS asset.

And, to top it all, there is - to this day - not a shred of evidence that's been published that she is, in fact, a Chinese spy: just anonymous intelligence officials, repeated by journalists who never verified it, as I detailed here (https://t.co/loSwtoVrqr) and here (https://t.co/fIWGMIF3Cr) with one of the key FT journalists on this story actually admitting that he has no idea what evidence US intelligence actually has.

So the claim went to print without anyone seeing the evidence, without anyone being able to check it, and without anyone knowing whether it even exists.

And given everything above, from Beijing blocking the very chips she was supposedly recruited to help get into China, to the MSS asking around about her, to her partner being detained in Shanghai, my bet is that the evidence doesn’t exist at all. If anything, everything we can check points the other way.

[Notas de Inteligencia @notasintel]

#NotasDeInteligencia

Volver a París, 21-11-1990. CSCE: *La seguridad es indivisible y la seguridad de cada Estado participante está inseparablemente vinculada a la de todos los demás*

2026. Abu Dhabi: Arquitectura de Seguridad Europea sin Europa

El eterno retorno

[The Tectonic @thetect0nic]

🇺🇦 🇺🇲 🇷🇺 Day one in Abu Dhabi: four hours, "good ideas," and a Russian line that Ukraine is only part of the deal

The first US-Russia-Ukraine talks in nine months wrapped their opening day after roughly four hours, with a break of about 40 minutes, and resume Wednesday morning. Nobody has published anything on paper.

US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner said there were "some good ideas how to bridge" the gaps between Moscow and Kyiv, DW reported. Ukraine's delegation, led by foreign intelligence chief Rustem Umerov, said only that talks had ended for the day. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined to discuss prospects "while the talks are still ongoing."

The more revealing signal came from the Russian side before the doors closed. A source on Moscow's delegation was quoted by DW as saying "the Ukrainian settlement, while it is a matter of critical importance, is just one aspect of this wide-ranging discussion and is subordinate to the main objective: the creation of a comprehensive and indivisible security architecture for the entire continent." "Indivisible security" is the same Kremlin language that framed its December 2021 demands for NATO to pull back from Eastern Europe, weeks before the full-scale invasion.

Kyiv wants a narrower agenda. Kyiv Independent reports Ukraine hopes to use the round for prisoner exchanges and a possible maritime and energy ceasefire, laying groundwork for a leaders' summit. Negotiator Davyd Arakhamia told DW he did not expect a breakthrough in round one.

Before the trilateral session, Ukraine, the US and European officials from Britain, France, Germany, Italy, NATO and the European Commission issued a joint statement backing "a strong post-war European security architecture" in which "a strong NATO will remain central." Per the Guardian, they also agreed any arrangement must respect Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity and provide credible security guarantees.

What to watch: whether Wednesday produces anything concrete on prisoners or an energy truce, or whether the Russian framing pulls the talks toward redrawing Europe's security map first.

[Notas de Inteligencia @notasintel]

La 'Ndrangheta y otras mafias en España

[Niporwifi © @niporwifi]

Esta tarde un sicario ha asesinado a tiros en un club deportivo en Orihuela (Alicante) a un miembro de la Mafia Albanesa. Tenía contactos con la Sacra Corona Unita y el clan Fiarè-Razionale-Gasparre de la Ndrangheta calabresa, este clan tiene una red importante de blanqueo de dinero en Madrid junto con Triadas Chinas.
https://t.co/AFgepF4E44

[Notas de Inteligencia @notasintel]

Diagnosticar sin examinar: mala praxis

[Sama Hoole @SamaHoole]

In June 1886 four psychiatrists signed a report declaring King Ludwig II of Bavaria incurably insane without one of them having examined him, and three days after he was deposed on the strength of it, the King and the professor who wrote it were found dead together in a lake.

Ludwig was 40, tall, shy, theatrical and broke. He had spent a royal fortune on castles out of fairy tales: Linderhof, Herrenchiemsee, and Neuschwanstein on its crag above an Alpine valley. He slept by day and drove his sleigh through the mountains by night. He had stopped coming to Munich. His ministers, saddled with a king who owed millions and would not do as he was told, needed a lawful way to be rid of him, and the Bavarian constitution offered one. A king could be removed if he was mad.

So the government went to Bernhard von Gudden, director of the Munich asylum and the leading psychiatrist in the kingdom, who had already certified Ludwig's younger brother. Gudden and three colleagues assembled their evidence from servants and courtiers, some with grudges, some reportedly paid. They never saw the patient. On 8 June they signed a diagnosis of paranoia, incurable, unfit to rule for life. On 10 June he was deposed.

A commission went up to Neuschwanstein to arrest him. On 12 June he was driven through the night to Berg Castle on Lake Starnberg, in a carriage with the inside door handles removed. When Gudden presented himself, the King asked him how he could declare a man insane without ever having examined him.

The next evening the two of them went for a walk by the lake, with the attendants sent back. Hours later both were found dead in the shallows. The official version was that the King had walked into the water to drown himself and the doctor had died trying to stop him. Nobody has ever settled it.

In 2008 the German psychiatrist Heinz Häfner went back through the file and found Gudden's report wrong in substance and in form, built on inadequate material by an expert who was not independent. Eccentric, extravagant, lonely, almost certainly not mad.

The castles offered as proof of his insanity now draw around 1.4 million visitors a year at Neuschwanstein alone, and inspired the castle at the start of every Disney film.

In 1886 a diagnosis of the mind was the one instrument that could remove a king without a trial, and the most respected man in the field signed it without meeting him.

Ludwig's question still has no answer. It is worth asking every time the diagnosis arrives before the doctor does.

[Brian Berletic @BrianJBerletic]

🇺🇸🇨🇳 On the US-Nvidia Political Circus

▪️An actual, real spy investigation would neither be leaked to major Western propaganda platforms (who work directly with intelligence agencies to shape narratives in the first place) nor be reported by them until the investigation was concluded and actions already taken;

▪️Instead, "leaks" like this are used to organize deliberate political circus meant to manipulate the public, pressure China in this case, and possibly even pressure or seize control of aspects of Nvidia's operations by targeting its senior leadership;

▪️There is something revealing here regarding the US corporate oligarchy using its power to command/control and pressure individual corporations - not to take actions to serve the American people's best interests, but to serve the collective greed of the larger corporate oligarchy itself (always at the American people's expense), while "fighting Communist China" who is "evil" specifically because it commands and controls corporations to actually serve the best interests of the people;

[Notas de Inteligencia @notasintel]

India hacia los 1.500 millones

[News18 @CNNnews18]

India's population is inching towards 1.5 billion, and a billboard at AIIMS Delhi is putting the numbers on display!

The population counter has caught attention as it tracks the country's growing population, highlighting the scale of India's demographic challenge.

#IndiaPopulation #AIIMSDelhi #PopulationGrowth #NewDelhi #IndiaNews

[Javier G. Recuenco @Recuenco]

Lo peor de los tiempos que vivimos es la necesidad de recordar lo obvio.

[Notas de Inteligencia @notasintel]

@Ivn_unalcoyano Buena observación 👍

[Notas de Inteligencia @notasintel]

China exportadora de Deflación [Europa ya empieza a ver con otros ojos a China]

[Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand]

Very thought-provoking argument by Louis-Vincent Gave @gave_vincent, co-founder and CEO of Gavekal (one of the most respected macro research firms on China).

His argument - which is correct - is that one of the The biggest problem for Western governments today (be it France, the UK, the US) is the rapidly rising cost of funding their debt.

He says that governments have 3 broad ways to get it under control:

1) Austerity, cutting spending massively, which basically no politician wants to do because it makes you massively unpopular

2) Specific to the US, they could dramatically reduce AI data center spending, which soaks up a huge share of the world’s capital and pushes up borrowing costs for everyone, governments included. Not good either since it kills the AI boom.

3) Or, they can go back to embracing China, which he calls "the one deflationary force in the world today." He says it's by far the easiest path, and policymakers always take the easiest path.

Louis-Vincent argues that's exactly what Mark Carney (“the least dumb of the western leaders today,” in Gave’s words) did when he opened Canada to Chinese cars: it's a cheap and easy way to fight inflation, and to reduce the cost of funding Canada’s debt in the process.

It's fairly ironic when you think about it: you can actually find plenty of quotes by Western officials castigating China for "exporting deflation" (like Klaas Knot from the European Central Bank here: https://t.co/Kl9W8QaA3U). Louis-Vincent’s argument is basically that, sooner or later, folks in Western finance ministries are going to look at bond yields, then at the inflation numbers, then at all those speeches about China exporting deflation, and go like: "wait a minute..." 😏

Full video of Louis-Vincent’s interview here: https://t.co/CiPX6Dds1R