washed

bubble chaser

[washed @notwashed]

the truth is there’s an art to launchpads, you need to find a middle ground between fairness and fun. also distribution is important, need some ppl with motion and social cap to kick these things off and make sure they stick. i’m sure there are some great mechanisms out there that just lack on the distribution end

pump has done well because they’ve figured out how to match demand (traders) with supply (deployers), through things like creator rewards and incentivizing low-cap speculation

i do think there’s a world where a pump ca becomes the next bags ca, but a better mechanism alone isn’t enough. you need an alternative that can consistently attract deployers that supply traders with things to speculate on. some sort of automated deployer-less system would be best, but idk if this is possible

[washed @notwashed]

really think this sentiment shift around pump and the broader bonding curve model is one of the most important pivots for onchain heading into the 2027+ cycle

for the better part of the last two years, onchain has largely revolved around the same game: get in early, acquire the cheapest supply, and sell to whoever comes after you. pump is the most obvious example, but newer launchers like pons and stonk still operate on a very similar one-dimensional bonding curve model. the earliest buyers get the best entries and often end up with disproportionate influence over the chart. this game has been solved for nearly a year now, and it's time to look elsewhere

the problem isn't speculation itself, but that the game has become increasingly optimized for deployers, bundlers, and those who get the cheapest supply first, rather than the traders these platforms are supposed to attract. pump's marketing strategy has largely operated under the premise that all attention is good attention, but being viewed as a non-trader-friendly, -ev casino whose target audience is the tiktok broccoli head isn't exactly the kind of attention that converts to meaningful growth

i still subscribe to the idea that the endgame for onchain is protocols/apps that accrue value back to their tokens, whether through buybacks or organic demand for the native token. personally, i'm far more interested in finding the next vvv or cards than the next launchpad. i strongly believe we need better tokens and projects, not just more efficient ways to create them

this is definitely ownership coin coded to an extent. i think the biggest hurdle for these tokens is cultural, but it does feel like sentiment is starting to shift. right now, the prevailing attitude is that if a token isn't buying back its own supply, it's worthless. but there's a perfectly valid case for projects reinvesting into growth today and focusing on more direct value accrual later. won't happen overnight, but i think ownership coins are setting up to be a good spot heading into the next cycle

with that said, ownership coins and consumer-facing apps are largely an htf game, and not everyone wants to play it. plenty of people who did well trenching in 2024/25 couldn't care less about missing a generational trade like hype, even if it ends up being the trade of the cycle. there's still a massive audience that wants to buy something at a 100k market cap and sell it at an 8-figure market cap, regardless of whether the token is "good" or not (the recent rh chain run showcases this)

that's where i think the opportunity for a new generation of launchers lies. not in creating more factories that use the same bonding curve and churn out the same tokens, but in experimenting with more dynamic, trader-friendly mechanisms that make the game less dependent on who got the cheapest supply first. anything that makes the early-stage speculation game feel less rigged has a real shot at doing well

the reality is that onchain is inherently pvp, and whatever better-for-traders game emerges will probably get solved eventually too. but there's a difference between competing against other traders and playing a game where the primary edge belongs to anon deployers and bundlers. we've seen similar moments where people push back and try to move on from pump, but this feels different than other attempts given the timing of it all

ultimately, i think there are two games people want to play: finding winning projects that actually accrue value to their tokens over time, or finding the next 100x before everyone else does. neither is going away, but i think the shift toward a more trader-friendly onchain experience is going to be one of the defining themes of the next cycle

tldr; onchain is mostly solved, yes, but people still want to play the game. we need better factories focused on creating better trading environments rather than another variation of the same static bonding curve. i still think the better game is finding the next breakout consumer app, but there's clearly massive demand for low-cap speculation, and the current environment leaves a lot of room for improvement. think there's some pretty compelling opportunities there

[washed @notwashed]

@AbsorbA11 @blknoiz06 😭😭

[Pumponomics @ThePumponomics]

most ppl would make more money and have way fewer headaches if they just took a longer view. but everything around us is pushing the other way. fast, fast, fast, rotate, don't miss it

what being in a rush actually does, at least for me, is make me take more decisions. and every decision is one more chance to be wrong.

and with the number of tokens coming out now and how easy it is to buy them, the surface area for that just keeps growing

how i've tried to handle it, with mixed results so far this cycle:

core spot holdings that i refuse to touch. i don't even really think about them until conditions i set ahead of time get met. that's the anchor of the port

then a much smaller active book, whatever fits your risk, somewhere between zero and 20% of the port, for rotations, trades, the thing trending on the timeline. that's where the itch goes

if i notice myself whittling the active book down, that's my signal. park it back in the main bag if it's working and i think it keeps going, or in the second or third best idea.

then scale the active side way back. keep 5% or so live if i genuinely have to be in and out of stuff, and leave it there

none of this is complicated. the hard part is remembering to stick with the plan when times get good.

[washed @notwashed]

@0xjaqs discord fries me too much, I’m barely on it anymore lmfao

[washed @notwashed]

@0xjaqs I like, big fan of cat guy dev

[washed @notwashed]

@ponzibaron @undacappn There are definitely some older, fairer launch mechanisms out there, but there's an art to it imo. has to be fair but also keep the game fun. I dont think older attempts did well here, hoping new attempts are better and stickier

[washed @notwashed]

@reverse_holo same, but sadly im an engagement whore and felt like the post was cucked cus of my retardness

[washed @notwashed]

fair tbh, but i think there's a lot of nuance here. my post wasn't really meant to be an ownership bullpost, was moreso pointing out the opportunities for different, more trader-friendly launch mechanisms. i also think there's a difference between getting outtraded and recognizing that the current game disproportionately favors deployers/bundlers

ownership coins still have a lot of hurdles to overcome, both regulatory and cultural. i don't think people should be expected to stop trading pump coins and force themselves to buy metadao projects when the ownership model still has a way to go before widespread adoption. i'm personally trading neither atm, not out of protest or anything, just haven't found much compelling enough to bid

also think these are really two different games. the people trading pump coins aren't necessarily the same people who are gonna be buying ownership coins. i still think ownership is where the puck is headed, but it's something that'll happen naturally as the model proves itself over time. think something like cards could be a great case study for token=equity down the road

[washed @notwashed]

repost since im retarded and butchered the OG post

[washed @notwashed]

@notfrydoteth i fear x will cuck the post's reach if i repost the same text again

[washed @notwashed]

when you think you tweeted a triple plat banger but someone points out you copied the same block of text twice in the tweet and its too late to delete and repost 🫠

[washed @notwashed]

@Kobying2024 no point tbh, these ppl never gonna come through on promises

[washed @notwashed]

@Kobying2024 ngl you win. i pasted the same block of text twice like a retard

[washed @notwashed]

@lesabrefomo oops lmfao, byproduct of me using AI to help clean up schizo brain dumps

[washed @notwashed]

@GrayDalen90 cus finding the next 100x doesnt come from pump anymore

[washed @notwashed]

@Kobying2024 guy who is illiterate is calling me a tard

[washed @notwashed]

@Notsu311406 ty!

[Dream @dreaming]

Introducing the Dream $1K to $10K Trading Challenge.

The first trader to turn $1,000 into $10,000 trading options on Dream wins $10,000.

The race starts now.

[washed @notwashed]

@spyler_1 personally think factories are fine, issue is 99% are slop factories. have hope that imd, abyss and maybe others arent slop factories but who knows

[washed @notwashed]

vague slop tweet, will expand

I don’t a return to rh/raydium fixes anything, all this does is gives you stonk eco and pons charts

I’m much more interested in the better factory idea, thinks like abyss or imd. things with better launch mechanisms, things allow for different types of tokens, programming liquidity, etc

also interested in ownership stuff again (Metadao & umia)

Many won’t like this but I do think the future of onchain looks more like vvv, cards, fwa, Papertrade, etc. things people actually use and produce some sort of rev or demand for token

I think with better and more thoughtful launch mechanisms we’ll see better protocols and apps get launched

[washed @notwashed]

pumpfun forever top and onchain rebirth

run it