Dadof9

[OptionHans @HansCashFlow]

Again, if you're not paying attention to my posts and videos... realized vol is back.

[OptionHans @HansCashFlow]

I was wildly bullish on SOXL at $17 (four YouTube videos about it when everyone hated it), but the lesson isn’t ‘always buy max leverage when you get a hunch.’ The lesson is knowing when leverage is underpriced, realized volatility is understood, sizing it properly, and having an exit before volatility teaches you manners. The SOXL LEAPS I recommended are up 1419%. Wanna learn how to do this like a pro?
https://t.co/kjPmDUnLXv

[OptionHans @HansCashFlow]

@spotgamma pointing out some levels this week. Options are pricing a larger swing in the tech-heavy parts of the market than in the broad index. Estimated one-week moves: SPX around 1.5%, QQQ around 2.6%, and SMH around 5.5% - makes sense. Might be too narrow. Translation: the market is saying the headline index may look calm while the engine room throws tools around.

Key SPX zone: 7,225–7,475. Below Friday’s close, the backdrop leans more short-gamma and can amplify intraday moves. Back above 7,400, and especially toward 7,500, the tape should act more stable. If 7,240 fails, the market could start sniffing around the 7,000 area.

Anyone watch my YouTube video on continuing to lean into IWM (small caps) weeks ago? Nice week. I don't think it takes off sharply, yet, but I think broadening has legs.

[The Market Signal @TheMktSig]

Posted yesterday at 5pm cst futures open-S3 was low tick of the day on the $NQ $QQQ.

[The Market Signal @TheMktSig]

$MSFT couldn't close above the pivot all year. Now it's right back at S2 — the level that's held 95% of the time over 21 years. Do we find the overshoot at 294 or bounce???

[Dadof9 @nqdaytraders]

@thuhkang lol yeah be like Stevie and Ray lost in the forest saying follow me 😂🤣

[Dadof9 @nqdaytraders]

@thuhkang I would rather listen to my neighbors dark bark at night then hear anymore about this deal 🤣

[The Market Signal @TheMktSig]

$QQQ found its level today. 📊 Here's where it goes next — the upside targets and the line that flips it bearish. $SPY $QQQ
Not financial advice.

[OptionHans @HansCashFlow]

AI shorts will obviously have their opportunities but they'll be battling this (see below). A tough battle. That's why for a year I've been preferring to mostly sit on the side of buy the dip rather than short the rip. Dunno, just seems like the more obvious play to me.

[The Market Signal @TheMktSig]

NQ daily pivot levels today.

Watch how price respected every
single level on the 1 minute chart.

If you are trading NQ futures —
SPX zero DTE — or the Magnificent 7 —
these are the levels you need
on your chart every single day.

Daily. Weekly. Monthly.
Built from years of data.
83.3% accuracy.

New to futures trading?
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$NQ $ES $SPY $QQQ $SPX
#NQFutures #FuturesTrading
#DayTrading #ZeroDTE
#PivotLevels #TechnicalAnalysis

[The Market Signal @TheMktSig]

Most traders have no idea where
NQ is going today.

We do.

Daily and weekly custom pivot levels
working in real time.

10 years of data.
83.3% accuracy.
Posted every single day.

Watch the market respect every level.

Link in reply 👇

$NQ $ES $SPY $QQQ
#FuturesTrading #DayTrading
#PivotLevels #NQFutures

[OptionHans @HansCashFlow]

My Stability Gauge is definitely stretched. More so than at any point in the last 2 months. I suspect it will get into the red in the next few weeks, which will be trouble.
You can get your own free gauge here:
https://t.co/bi6l88FF1V

**Not financial advice in any way.

[OptionHans @HansCashFlow]

Concentration Risk: This Is Not a Broad Market Rally.

That is why I think some caution is warranted here. Under the surface, this has not been a clean, evenly distributed bull market. Technology stocks alone accounted for roughly 85 percent of the S&P 500’s return, while the S&P 500 excluding technology rose just 3 percent. That is not broad participation. That is a handful of giants dragging the index higher by the collar.

The biggest example is NVIDIA (NVDA). NVDA now represents roughly 9 percent of the S&P 500 by market value and has contributed about 20 percent of the index’s total return this year. That is incredible leadership, but it is also concentration risk. If NVDA catches a cold, a lot of the index weight catches a cold with it.

This does not mean the rally has to fail. It means the market is leaning very hard on one theme, one sector, and now one stock at the center of the AI complex. That works beautifully until it stops working beautifully.

Hans’s Take

The market is not broken. But it is stretched. But it isn't what I'd call 'broadly healthy'. And when the rubber band stretches this far, it can snap back with a bang, not a whimper.

Sure, earnings are terrific, but a lot of that traces back to AI.

There is still strong momentum in AI and semiconductors, and momentum can carry much farther than reasonable people expect. But when rates rise, oil rises, and inflation data gets hotter, the margin for error shrinks.

This is exactly the kind of environment where options discipline matters. Don’t confuse a strong trend with a risk-free trend. That is how people become the Thanksgiving turkey — great track record, right up until the wrong Thursday.

This week, I want to see whether buyers still defend dips after Friday’s wobble, and whether Nvidia can justify the amount of optimism already priced into the AI trade.

[Kang @thuhkang]

Wow.

[Marco Foster @MarcoFoster_]

Joe Rogan: “These motherfuckers are talking about drafting people. Palantir thinks we should re-introduce conscription. I don’t understand why anybody would wanna support that after this Iran war where everybody’s like why the fuck are we in Iran? How about fuck you? You go”

[OptionHans @HansCashFlow]

Good timing on this but TBH you could have shown the exuberance for a week with this chart. But it did get a little stupid. But would I be surprised to see it at 900 soon? No.
Definitely was setting up for a nice financed downside play with that call skew so jacked.

[Dadof9 @nqdaytraders]

@DeItaone New ath in $spy tomorrow 😳

[OptionHans @HansCashFlow]

FLOWS and stuff you gotta KNOWS for the week
https://t.co/B5WEU72ETI

[OptionHans @HansCashFlow]

My Stability Gauge just sneaking into slightly-not-happy territory...

[Dadof9 @nqdaytraders]

@HansCashFlow Risk