Binance is arguably the world's largest crypto exchange.
Feb 2026: Polymarket lists a small 5-minute Bitcoin contract. Since then, Binance order flow spikes in the final seconds before settlement; prices revert soon after.
New paper with David Dai and Shihao Yu ( @ShihaoY ): Settlement Manipulation in Prediction Markets (https://t.co/L4fFsnXLhW)🧵
The finding, up front:
Traders push Bitcoin's price in the final seconds to decide the contract. That push makes the price less informative, yet Bitcoin's market more liquid. Market makers are largely insulated; ordinary traders lose $7.6M in two months.
how you can legally take $20,000,000 from a wallet
1) you need to find an inactive dao but has a decent treasury
2) you need to buy a lot of tokens related to the dao & initiate a governance proposal
3) don't tell anyone wait few days until the governance proposal passes
4) congratulations you just take the money legally from the dao wallet
5) in bonk fun case, 1 guy used ~ $4 million bonk to get access to $20 million
6) he got like $16 million profit
7) do you know how much $ worth bonk voted against his proposal? around $3k worth bonk
we are not in a serious industry
1/ Everyone knows XTX and Gerko. But there’s a whole tier of Russian-rooted trading firms no one is yapping about online. Some are quietly elite, some are cautionary tales. A field guide 🧵
the fact that I posted this 5 and a half years ago
and it STILL just straight-up works, without even having to derive any further implied strategies
is actually wild
EMH isn't real
“Quant trading is simpler than people think.”
@GryptoGoon joins the Insilico Terminal Podcast to talk about finding crypto edges, market making, and why the best trades often come from clicking around broken markets before anyone else notices.
We covered TradFi, early DeFi rugs, solo trading, perp DEXs, Hyperliquid, prediction markets, bad bots, points farming, and the on-chain casino arb that turned into PvP.
00:00 Intro + CryptoGoon’s background
04:31 Getting rugged and discovering early DeFi
07:08 Why TradFi-style edges worked in 2021 crypto
11:03 Solo trading vs trading inside a firm
15:25 The on-chain casino arb that became PvP
24:13 Finding edge early on new perp DEXs
31:10 Why quant trading is simpler than people think
38:39 Why points farming can reveal real edge
53:01 Crypto morale, HYPE, and where the market is now
"Crypto is the dumbest market in the world"
Scott Phillips (@ScottPh77711570) runs HyperTrend — $20M of his own capital, one losing year in six.
His edge? Picking the table big firms can't sit at.
"There's no second-best counterparty in crypto. You see crime, you run towards it — crime is the foundation of edge."
We cover:
- Why crypto still has edge in 2026 — even when your uncle is talking about Bitcoin at Thanksgiving
- The simple rules (buy 20-day highs, top-20 coins) that print through any market
- Why stacking trend + momentum + carry gets you there from a spreadsheet — no automation required
- Price-insensitive buyers (Saylor), price-insensitive sellers (North Korea) & why both are permanent alpha
- The 90-day Binance listing short — an edge hiding in plain sight in market maker contracts
- Why most shit coins trend to zero — and how to trade the ones that don't
- Building a tokenized, permissionless DeFi hedge fund on hyperliquid — 2 & 20, fully on-chain
- Why the best quant firms are run by near-non-verbal autists with one translator
Thank you so much @ScottPh77711570 for coming on the pod!
Highlights:
01:04 Table selection and the math of competitive alpha
06:21 Why basic trend following yields outsized Sharpe in crypto
08:49 Why market inefficiency persists despite institutional inflows
14:58 Price insensitive buyers: Cults, VCs, and North Korean hackers
17:17 Factor analysis and the size-decay effect in shitcoins
25:40 The structural edge in mid-frequency crypto strategies
32:43 Tokenized DeFi vaults and on-chain hedge fund governance
40:43 Designing a robust portfolio: Equal weighting vs. MVO
44:21 Sourcing alpha from ghost chains and VC exit liquidity
49:58 Exploiting market maker contracts and post-listing drift
53:55 Operational alpha: Managing margin and manipulated funding rates
01:01:13 Shifting from quant to CEO
01:11:28 How to bridge the mentorship gap with elite traders
01:22:38 Building network triads: The secret to compounding social capital
01:29:23 Why 10x goals require total identity transformation