About 10 people have been using different closed beta versions of NS SYSTEM now and providing feedback to me. Fun times. A lot of energy goes into making it simpler.
Define a signal, test whether it's predictive for what you want it to capture, and if it is, accept the weight of the risk that comes with trading it. No tricks, no layering on filters to make the equity curve look smoother in a backtest, no pretending you can isolate the good trades from the bad ones. You can't scam the market out of giving you return without taking risk.
The people who struggle are the ones treating risk as a bug to be fixed rather than the price of admission. They keep adding complexity trying to get the return without the pain, and they end up either curve-fitting or shifting the risk somewhere they can't see it until it blows up.
You're getting paid to be uncomfortable. That's the deal, right? You better get comfy with being uncomfy.
Logged in second time in nearly half a year. Absolutely little to no value on the timeline, but a lot, A LOT of opinions that keep you a slave to the market.
See you in the private tribes.
@Dcpcooks T is your largest asset, not P
The longer you can survive (TIME), the more Profit you will make.
Lose it once and you are done, or at the very least left with less Time to try to rebuild it
Good thread on integrating your psychology. I was talking to some traders in DMs about this, and everyone is struggling to some extent.
Me personally, I managed to close most months in 2025 non-negative, but some of them came at a high mental cost. Funny thing is I could tell most times that it's going to be a grind ahead, and it's possible to lay back or focus on research with minimal exposure.
We live and we learn.
Discovering Your Own Mental Framework (For Traders)
This is a topic I have been thinking about for a while and finally found the words to string something together. There are hundreds (maybe more) of different trading setups, situations, and patterns to become a profitable trader.
But I think it is foolhardy to believe you can become a master of them all.
I hear often. “There are no more Bitcoin cycles”.
Reality is, we’re always in cycles. We just can’t help ourselves.
We pump until it burst, because we just want more. Then we start again.
Only difference is how much shrapnel you avoid and how quickly you reset.
The best piece of often overlooked advice that I got at rentech (by Jim himself) in the earlier days was : “Always remember, first sort, then regress”. We lived by this rule. If you have data (X,Y) sort X and Y independently, this gives a better fit.
Last time I was almost convinced by this app that we are going into a recession driven by an upcoming decade of trade wars, looming nuclear war and AI apocalypse — we printed a bottom.