Timothy Peterson

Bitcoin Pathfinder | Network Economist | CFA, CAIA
Author of "The Bitcoin Investment Handbook" & "Metcalfe's Law as a Model for #Bitcoin's ₿ Value"

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

#bitcoin is the first money that requires no physical space to store it, no courier to carry it, no bookkeeper to count it, no auditor to check on it, no security guard to protect it, and no government to issue it.

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

@fermatslibrary we are alone

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

@DignBTC The price level is irrelevant. If you thought it would go to $58k, you pick the 'no' $55k bet and do 3-4x on your option premium

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

If you have extra cash and/or balls of steel, this might be your next 5x Bitcoin investment.

[Kalshi @Kalshi]

JUST IN: 80% chance Bitcoin falls below $60,000

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

Beneath the price noise, Ethereum's network value has only been growing at about 23% per year. At that rate, it will only be worth $3,000 in 2029, and Tom Lee will still be significantly underwater.

bluroo ai

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: Tom Lee's 'Bitmine' $ETH investment is currently at a $8,700,000,000 unrealized loss.

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

@waltoshi this is why it takes balls of steel

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

@MisterBitty_ The bet is for the 'no' option. The yes option pays 25%. The no option pays 5.2x.
Bet payout are determined by Kalshi and not relevant to what I 'think' the price will do.
But the real problem is you clearly don't understand options and can't do math.

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

@BitcoinNewsCom it's both

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

@Kalshi Opinions are worthless. Have him show us his Kalshi bet on that event. If he's not willing to back it with money, he's just a windbag.

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

@CeeGix $1.00/0.19 = 5.2x in 7 months
$1.00/0.35 = 2.9x in 7 months.

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

@xAviation Wayne Robert’s what? Wife? Dog? Ego?

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

ofc, it may not get to 1,100. May only get to 1400-1500.

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

If Ethereum is worth $3000, and downside deviation is -100% log scale, then 3000*exp(-1.0) = $1,100 buy price.

bluroo ai

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

@0xaporia how is it that if DJIA = 50,000 => good but BTC = 50,000 => bad? Make it make sense.

/s

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

NASDAQ 2026

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

@visegrad24 Why don't they go around and attack from the side or the rear? What a bunch of morons. Zero plan, zero tactics, zero real outcomes.

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

@charliebilello where was this nonsense claim during the taylor swift eras tour?

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

@visegrad24 Local team wins 'football': mass destruction and arson

Innocent man gets framed and murdered: throw garbage bins

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

@Barchart Bitcoin and adoption curve estimate

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

Bitcoin and theoretical adoption curve

bluroo ai

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

@VladislaAleksee Just confirmed my numbers are correct.

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

The following year's Bitcoin returns accelerated:
2015: +34%
2019: +94%
2023: +155%
2027: ???

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

Bitcoin. Every fourth year has been a bear market. 2026 is one such year.
I don't think this price path will repeat this year. However, I can't say that it won't repeat either.