Timothy Peterson

Bitcoin Pathfinder | Network Economist | CFA, CAIA
Author of "The Bitcoin Investment Handbook" & "Metcalfe's Law as a Model for #Bitcoin's ₿ Value"

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

Only a few signed and boxed copies of The Bitcoin Investment Handbook remain. If you're thinking of getting a gift for someone, or a treat for yourself, order soon because they may not be around during holiday shopping season!

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

Stocks have historically surged after midterm elections. Since 1971, the S&P 500 has averaged a 20.2% return in post-midterm years, versus 10.1% in other years.

Stocks have posted positive calendar-year returns following 21 consecutive midterm elections, from 1943 through 2023! Never a down year!

Reduced political uncertainty, market recoveries, and third-year presidential incentives may explain the difference.

History suggests 2027 could be an unusually strong year for stocks.

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

Bitcoin 2027 50% OFF!!
https://t.co/WklfrV0JJf

Bitcoin 2027 delivers a two-year forward outlook built on the first peer-reviewed Bitcoin valuation methodology. The 2024–2026 period provided the definitive real-world falsification of the four-year cycle myth. But the underlying adoption path does not change. From that foundation, the report examines how macro credit conditions and dollar strength are shaping the next cycle, presents the circumstances whereby Bitcoin could outperform the S&P 500 in 2027, and provides a direct assessment of the quantum computing threat in a way that separates credible risk from speculation.

The analytical toolkit spans network valuation via Metcalfe's Law and a macroeconomic model conditioned on the Fed dot plot, CME FedWatch probabilities, and the CBO two-year outlook, and a downside risk framework that expresses the likely price floor as a probability distribution.

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

On-chain metrics have now been added to https://t.co/ADolY2UBIy
We are now running our own Bitcoin node. This means all the usual metrics like Difficulty and Transaction counts can be shown on a chart with existing metrics, price, and model data. Download the chart or the data with a single click!

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

The Bitcoin metric I'm most interested in right now is difficulty, which turned the corner for the first time in a long time. Difficulty is a setting that determines how hard it is for a miner to process the next block and make new Bitcoin. It's not a great predictor of price. But it is a protocol-based metric that can't be gamed. For that reason I think it's indicative of demand and hence long-term adoption. What remains to be seen is if it resumes its trend from 2020-2025.
This is one of many buy signals I've seen over the past few weeks.

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

Downtober.
Bitcoin has the worst October since 2014.
Despite two consecutive down Octobers, October is still the best performing month since 2016.

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

Take note.

Inflation @federalreserve Bitcoin Gold

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

US Consumer Prices are now 14% above where they would be had inflation actually averaged 2% since January 2020.

The Fed should be hiking rates at every meeting until that gap is erased.

Instead, it continues to tolerate the destruction of purchasing power while pretending its 2% inflation target still means something.

A central bank that refuses to defend its own target has lost all credibility.

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

@charliebilello lol
https://t.co/I6EV4bklSj

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

Since 1990, inflation has averaged 2.7%, well above the 2.0% target. In fact, the @federalreserve meets its 2.0% target fewer than 3 years out of 10.
The idea that the Fed can control inflation is probably more myth than fact.

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

@charliebilello It's easy to keep premium low: raise deductible and deny services.

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

There are more than 3 million financial market indexes worldwide. Bitcoin tracks this index better than any other. Understand what drives this index and where it is headed, and you will understand what drives Bitcoin and where it is headed.

This research available only to members at Cane Island Digital Research.

"Determinants of Bitcoin's Performance"
https://t.co/AVj5HPVt11

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

@MacroScope17 https://t.co/zx22dgR3jl

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

Cycle bottom developing for Bitcoin and Gold.
Be patient. Bottoming is a process and not a point in time. That process can take 6-7 months.

[Cane Island Digital Research @CaneDigital]

New Research Available: https://t.co/NbvMB8GDYn

BITCOIN'S HOLY GRAIL

This Bitcoin allocation rule beats power law 3:1; beats stock-to-flow 4: 1; beats buy-and hold 5:1 (since December 2017). This allocation rule compounded 46.4% a year against 22.7% for buy-and-hold, and its worst decline was 38.4% against 75.5%. It captured 67.8% of Bitcoin's rising months and only 41.3% of its falling months, mainly by cutting exposure at tops. It predicted returns one to nine months ahead and held up at six to twelve months on data the model had not yet seen! By comparison, the power law forecast was worse than a simple average.

What Bitcoin investor could possibly operate without knowing this simple allocation strategy? We call this “Bitcoin’s Holy Grail” for good reason: a clear rule that replaces anxiety with confidence. Order Bitcoin’s Holy Grail today and give yourself that peace of mind.

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

visit https://t.co/68MMxS6dfu

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

@AndrewCurran_ Our chips for China's rare earth metals would be the deal.

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

What happens to Bitcoin after a major hack?

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

@For_Film_Fans I @grok Spock

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

@MarkoHodled No. this signal relies on both gold and bitcoin crossing below 0. That has only just happened for gold. So the clock starts now.

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

Cycle bottom developing for Bitcoin and Gold.
Be patient. Bottoming is a process and not a point in time. That process can take 6-7 months.

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

How the Binance hack worked:

Ethereum introduced EIP-7702 in 2025, allowing wallet owners to authorize software to manage their funds. One digital signature can give that software ongoing control over a wallet. Basically this features allow you to turn over your keys to a software program. In hindsight, a stupid design.

Hackers apparently obtained such authorization for a Binance wallet and redirected control to malicious software, which drained billions in minutes.

Not your keys...

Bitcoin XRP Tether

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

#SundaySurvey
Your outlook for Bitcoin for the next 6 months

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

@exec_sum the left are no better than rodents and other vermin