At a macro level, $ETH has done exactly what we had predicted: the rebound arrived precisely at the 0.75 area, around 2,700, which I had been indicating for days as a key reaction level.
From here on the picture is clear: above us we have the major macro resistance around 4,000, while on the lower time frames the first real barrier lies in the red box at 3,400/3,500, which for now remains the most significant intermediate resistance.
As for trading, the logic remains the same: either you trade exclusively at key levels, or you wait for the structural confirmation that comes after the formation of the Monday Range, where the sweeps give you the clearest read on whether the move is genuine or just noise.
The rest are just random attempts. Here, you work with levels, structure and confirmations.
At this point $ZEN is starting to lose the solidity it had in previous movements. The highs he had built at the top no longer found continuity, and you can clearly see that slowdown in the curvature of the last thrusts: every attempt to rise is rejected earlier, with less force.
Now the price is practically "walking on the wire", resting on top of that red box.
That's where everything is played: as long as it stays on top, he can still try to stabilise and build a new impulse. But if that area jumps, there is no longer any element to hold the bullish structure …it becomes an air vacuum, and the market naturally tends to slide lower to look for an area where real demand can be found again.
There is no need to complicate it:(look arrow and trigger )
It's a trend that's getting weaker, and that box is the last credible support before the structure completely changes face.
The bear market on altcoins has been going on for a couple of months now, that much is clear.
Just open a weekly chart: everything is down, volumes are drying up, BTC is taking centre stage and the rest are struggling. It's normal for everything to seem dead.
The interesting thing, however, is not to say 'we're in a bear market'... even a blind man can see that.
What matters is understanding when the tide begins to turn.
A serious reversal does not come with a sudden candle or a random pump.
It usually starts slowly, almost silently:
volumes stop disappearing, the OBV stops bleeding, Bitcoin slows down for a moment and stops sucking up all the liquidity, and some altcoins start to stop making lower lows.
It is a process, not an event.
For now, the market is still heavy, there's no point beating around the bush.
But beneath the surface, something is starting to show small signs, those micro-restarts that are not yet trends but are the 'prelude'.
When I see a credible reversal 👉🏻not a 10-minute pump, but a real change in behaviour, I'll let you know right away. But ETH is building a bottom, in my humble opinion! A little more depression and I'd be more than happy.
As for $ETH, it's true: at the moment, it looks like one of the worst charts in the industry.
But I've said it many times before: the interesting part for ETH and altcoins is not now ….it will happen between the end of Q4 and, above all, Q1 2026.
The reason is simple.
The ETH/BTC pair is not collapsing randomly: it is consolidating on key support, but it still lacks that final downward push to take liquidity and completely clean up the area. It is the classic slow, boring phase, but one that often precedes stronger cycles.
Then there is the macro context.
QT ends in December, and if we see even a hint of QE in the following months, liquidity will inevitably return to reward riskier assets and therefore altcoins and ETH.
The fact that the RRP (Reverse Repo Facility is a 'parking lot' where monetary and institutional funds can leave liquidity overnight with the FED in exchange for a secure return) is practically empty opens up even more space for this scenario: less absorption, more chance of seeing outflows to the market. An empty RRP means that the FED is no longer absorbing liquidity.
All liquidity returns to the financial system and can flow more easily into the markets.
When this happens, risk assets tend to benefit much more.
In summary:
👉🏻ETH is currently underperforming,
but the structure is laying the groundwork
and the macro environment favours risk assets in the coming months
I will provide updates along the way, but the narrative remains unchanged: ETH's time is not now... it will come later.
Educational post
Many charts like this
The price continues to move within a range: it is rejected at the top, and buyers always return at the bottom.
Recently, the market pushed below support only to trigger stops and create panic, but the price was immediately reabsorbed: a sign that someone was buying right there.
We are now back in the area from which significant rebounds have started in the past, but the trend remains weak. A green candle is not enough to talk about a reversal: the price needs to stop making new lows and start consolidating. Only then can we think about a return to the middle of the range and, if there is real demand, to the upper range.
Let's observe and let the price confirm.
In the second photo representing the same chart, observe how the price manages to build a three-tap on the support, three tests of the same area with rising lows and confirmation of the recovery of levels, then we will have a credible underlying structure. A single rebound is not enough: the market needs to show that every time it returns to that level, buyers respond more strongly.
And remember for a true bottom does not come from a single candlestick: it needs time and consolidation. The market must stop making new lows, move sideways, and show that there is real demand below and not just a technical rebound.