NILLA TEJESH

Mastering the stupids game

[🐧 @DerangdPenguin_]

who did this?😂

[NILLA TEJESH @ntejesh06]

@Akveq_ @vinaykandi Telugu?

[Saketh R @saketh1998]

India’s stock market tax stack:

• STT (2004): Payable even on losing trades, with hikes in 2023, 2024 and 2026. Estimated cumulative collection: ~₹3.7 lakh crore up to mid-October 2026.

• LTCG (2018): Reintroduced at 10%, increased to 12.5% in 2024. ₹2.01 lakh crore reported for FY24 and FY25 combined.

• STCG: Increased from 10% → 15% → 20% on eligible short-term equity gains.

• GST (2017): 18% on brokerage and taxable service charges.

• Stamp duty: Charged on purchases, with uniform securities rates introduced in 2020.

• Dividend tax: DDT abolished in 2020; dividends now taxed in investors’ hands.

• Buyback tax: Moved from company-level taxation to shareholder dividend tax, then capital gains in 2026, with additional promoter taxation.

• Trading-profit tax: Intraday and F&O profits attract applicable business-income tax.

• Cess & surcharge: Additional levies on income tax, including 4% cess.

Brokerage, SEBI fees and exchange charges come on top of all this.

Despite this tax burden, our markets continue to attract liquidity. The Finance Minister should welcome that resilience. Unfortunately, liquidity itself now seems to have become a concern.

[Sarang Sood @SarangSood]

We already have STCG, LTCG and STT.

But investors can still exit the stock market without paying a separate EXIT TAX.

This is huge revenue leakage.

Government and our honourable FM must look into this urgently.

[NILLA TEJESH @ntejesh06]

@HindutvaCaptain Nice edit bro

[Vikas Vij @TheClubJunto]

Economic Sovereignty 

Elon Musk’s direct attack on the Indian Prime Minister and India’s top industrialist could not have come without approval of the US govt.

Trump & Vance both have been heaping racist insults on Indians. They have no guts to do it against the Chinese. China owns critical technologies that make America bend on its knees.

India has the same natural resources as China. We are 18% of humanity. But we don’t produce a single thing that the world cannot do without.

The rules of the world have changed. It’s time for Indian policymakers and industry to change their thinking. 

Concentration of personal wealth & power and a complete disregard to economic sovereignty and economic opportunity will earn you only disrespect, both inside and outside India.

The choice is yours: A conqueror or a frog croaking in his own well. Either Caesar or nothing.

[Robert Reich @RBReich]

CEO-to-worker pay ratio in 1965: 20-1

CEO-to-worker pay ratio in 1990: 75-1

CEO-to-worker pay ratio today: 325-to-1

Trickle-down economics was always a sham.

Nothing has ever trickled down.

[NILLA TEJESH @ntejesh06]

@dalit_bha @Satya80247880 @ICICIBank Nuv aa 5 lakh ni withdraw chesi malli deposit ala oka 2 times cheyyi apudu nii income proof saripodu nii income 15 lakh antaru 😂😂😂

[NILLA TEJESH @ntejesh06]

I am receiving these notifications daily can you please me logic behind this why should I pay 499 to save 350 @fyers1 @tejaskhoday

[Vikas Vij @TheClubJunto]

Markets Sense a Long Era of Instability: Don’t Buy the Fall

(a) Govt is distracted (b) FIIs dislike mass protests (c) 2021-26: Nifty below-FD Return (d) FD rates will rise; Build Cash (d) China 17 yrs 0 return (e) Here’s India Data & Facts:

Second Order Effects on Economy

a. Govt is facing real political storms. It has no bandwidth left for major economic policy or reforms to attract foreign investment.

b. Foreign funds don’t invest where mass protests and public discontent are a daily affair. Their bet on India was a strong govt; strong economic agenda.

c. Inflation rising, unemployment rising; IT exports declining; Rupee under pressure. RBI is forced to fight inflation. FD rates will rise in Oct.

Zero Risk Premium in Equity

a. 5-Year Returns: Sept 2021 to Sept 2026 (5 Yrs): Nifty 50 Return: 32.3%; Post Office Deposit Return: 34.4%; SBI 5-Yr FD Return: 30.8%

b. 3-Year Returns: Nifty 50 Return: 15.58%; Sensex Return: 9.94%; Post Office Deposit Return: 21.56%; SBI FD Risk-Free Return: 21.34%

c. Last 3 Years: Out of a universe of 2,867 stocks, 43.3% delivered negative returns (one-third lost up to 50% value; 11% lost above 50% value).

d. Risk-Reward Ratio: In last 3 years, you had a 43.3% probability of destroying your capital. Against such high risk, even if you won, the returns were far too negligible to justify such volatile investment.

Don’t Bet on Growth Narrative

a. Yesterday, Kotak published a chart showing that China stock market (CSI 300) has remained sideways for the last 17 yrs; and has not yet regained the level it set 18 yrs ago.

b. Howard Marks published data in his recent memo: In the last 100 yrs, each time you bought S&P 500 at forward PE 23x, the annualized return in the next 10 yrs has been between +2% and -2%. Every single time. No exceptions.

c. India is no exception. India’s growth story of FDI, FII, IT boom, low inflation is long over. Over the next 5 yrs, the downside risk looks higher than the upside potential. If you go all-in, that’s a risky bet for your mental peace, with little potential upside.

Why Are FIIs So Pessimistic?

a. On Aug 28, Bernstein published a hard-hitting strategy note: "India’s corporate earnings are artificially engineered through state subsidies, fiscal cushions, and borrowed offshore dollars rather than through genuine productivity gains."

b. Market bulls touted NSE 200 top-line growth was 12%. Yet, net profit grew only 7%. Bernstein questioned the practice of excluding loss-making oil marketing companies (OMCs) "to manufacture a strong earnings growth story."

c. Govt expanded LPG/fertilizer subsidies, took $10B hit through excise duty reductions, $20B GST cuts, OMCs took $2B loss. So govt subsidized consumer spending power, which artificially padded the firms’ operating margins. That's not a long-term play.

d. $70B Pay Commission wage revision is coming, which will encumber sovereign balance sheet and cut govt’s capacity for public capex. Plus, with costly FCNR deposits, govt is purchasing rupee stability on credit, Bernstein warned.

e. Finally, Bernstein says India’s large caps are not investing in the future, and are consolidating their past (preserving balance sheets). Companies with deepest pockets don’t want to commit capital to emerging technologies, and want policy protection.

f. In this scenario, FIIs are forced to look at small and midcaps (SMIDs). But those companies remain sub-scale, with low free-floats, high volatility, and risky corporate governance. Institutional capital is not interested.

Bernstein concludes: With these problems, why should FIIs invest in India?

ENDPIECE: Investor Strategy

a. PE de-rating is going on globally. World-class US companies are available at throwaway prices, and there are no buyers. So, don’t get tempted by a falling market in India.

b. Build cash patiently. Unwind risky positions. Cash has 3 benefits: (1) Emergency funds give security & happiness (2) FD may beat equity for next few years (3) If global equity crashes, you will be the only buyer in town.

c. Think in Probabilities: Considering all macro factors: (1) India Equity Boom: 20% chance (2) Sideways: 60% chance (3) Bust: 20% chance

FD wins: 60% + 20% = 80% chance
Equity wins: 20% chance

Markets are the greatest game on earth. The dream to get rich is as old as the hills. Most investors will still pick equity.

@arabicatrader

[NILLA TEJESH @ntejesh06]

@SarangSood Bhai searching for updates for why brent crude(ukoil) is down by more than 5% past 30min but given find the reason do you know?

[NILLA TEJESH @ntejesh06]

Time will wage it's war.

[Shijumon Antony @Shijumonantony]

This alone is approximately 350 CR per day. Total of STT, Brokerage, SEBI Charges, Exchange Transaction charges, GST, Stamp Duty etc it could be approximately 1000 CR per day which is the outflow from the capital market. You don't need to search for other reasons for market not going up. Government, exchanges and regulators are sucking the liquidity and blood of traders and investors. @nsitharaman

[NILLA TEJESH @ntejesh06]

@Magicbullindia So from now on your bearish view completed

[JerryRigEverything @ZacksJerryRig]

The problem with stupid people is that they don't know they're stupid.

[NILLA TEJESH @ntejesh06]

@Shijumonantony Is this view still intact? and also does this include crudeoil, us bonds and other geopolitical situations

[NILLA TEJESH @ntejesh06]

@adir_13 the buffalo jumps across the bridge rather than walking across it.

[Shijumon Antony @Shijumonantony]

I request all traders to repost below message of Piyush Chaudhary

[Piyush Chaudhry @piyushchaudhry]

To @FinMinIndia @PMOIndia
SEBI is potentially in breach of its statutory duty under Section 11 of the SEBI Act, 1992, by permitting Closing Auction Session (CAS) in which inadequate liquidity can produce disproportionate movements in the official closing price, thereby compromising orderly price discovery, market integrity and investor protection.

[Sarang Sood @SarangSood]

If CAS is acceptable when your options expire worthless, it’s acceptable when it wipes you out too.

You don’t get to celebrate the risk today and call it unfair when it explodes tomorrow.