Even though DXY is at $109, 10yr at 4.7%, Fear/Greed Index firmly in Fear - both the SPX and BTC continue to hold their lows. Unless we sweep the lows, market is going up. $6,250 on SPX and $113 - $119k on BTC. Lots of catalysts coming up for a swing, new video out tomorrow.
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Jobless Claims
211k vs expected 221k
Historically, in election years you see government hiring, which we have seen on a massive scale. This is done with the expectation the party in power will stay in power and they juice the economy to show it's "strength". Biden is still in power until Jan 20th, these numbers are a reflection of that trend.
My expectation remains the same. I'm looking for a top here in January. Mid January is my target based on Fed meeting on Jan 15th and Trump inauguration Jan 20th.
When will unemployment begin to move up? We have been talking about the cooked numbers for months, and the next BLS revision comes out in February. Last revision brought an ATH -818k job revisions. I expect unemployment continues to rise in Q1 (Feb/March) and give fuel for the incoming correction.
The top, as we hold the lows, looking for SPX Futures (ES) 6,250 and BTC $114-124k - the key is holding the current lows.
New YT video will be out Monday to go over Q1.
Happy 2025 All!!
Bloomberg reported yesterday, all 19 major Analysts on Wall Street expect 10% gains or more in 2025. Zero expect a negative year.
I think you get a Q1 correction of 10%. A bottom in late March into April, a rally back to a Summer High - that rally will determine if we get a negative year or not.
I think the key catalyst will be unemployment. BLS next major revision to cooked jobs numbers comes in February. Record ATH revision of -818k last time. If unemployment stays below 4.4%, "strong economy" will remain the narrative on Wall Street. If we eclipse 4.5%, look out below.
Going to be many opportunities this year for trading swings.
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