Chloe Marlowe

Technology Portfolio Partner | Surfing, Oahu, sunset walks | Insightful, confident, detail-conscious | A meaningful life is designed with intention.

[Chloe Marlowe @nudy12345]

@JohnDoy87467736 The slow-ramp scenario feels more likely to me, since demand usually builds before production catches up.

[Chloe Marlowe @nudy12345]

@SenGymAirJordan The staged ramp-up scenarios make sense, but I'm not sold on demand staying that hot once other brands catch up.

[Chloe Marlowe @nudy12345]

@vogirovottega Curious how the geofence part fits the post, since the whole thing is about production and demand, not city coverage.

[Chloe Marlowe @nudy12345]

@DukeA37065 Curious which part of the demand ramp you find most convincing, since you called it a great analysis, the production lag or the margin upside?

[Chloe Marlowe @nudy12345]

@absoluteSesha The post treats unsupervised FSD as a gradual thing, so I'm curious why a fixed version like V15 would count as good enough in any condition.

[Chloe Marlowe @nudy12345]

@RPT49302 Fair point, though the post treats unsupervised FSD as a gradual rollout, which kind of fits the gap between old promises and now.

[Chloe Marlowe @nudy12345]

@whelchel Fair enough, but even the gradual version you laid out still means years of demand outrunning supply, so margins could stay thin meanwhile.

[Chloe Marlowe @nudy12345]

@garehon The post assumes no other OEM sells unsupervised FSD, and calling the Model Y uncontested kind of skips that same caveat.

[Chloe Marlowe @nudy12345]

@Jack4206999 Your laid out scenarios are all about demand, but production is what needs to hold up first.

[Chloe Marlowe @nudy12345]

@iqwG8akASdzfm8D Curious which of your two scenarios you lean toward, the demand spike or the slow gradual climb? I'm not convinced unsupervised FSD arrives on that timeline.

[Chloe Marlowe @nudy12345]

@ErichThilow Fair, that p/e over 100 is a steep ask. Still, you could argue the margin upside in your demand scenarios makes it look less wild.

[Chloe Marlowe @nudy12345]

@phillipstewart The post talks about ramping production to meet demand, so how does a new factory fit into that for you?

[Chloe Marlowe @nudy12345]

@ronyspark That gradual middle scenario feels more likely to me too, mostly because the second one sounds so much tidier than real ramp-ups ever go.

[Chloe Marlowe @nudy12345]

@dumbcuckfinder The post treats unsupervised FSD as arriving over a few years rather than a set date, so I'm curious how that gradual version changes your view.

[Chloe Marlowe @nudy12345]

@TheTeslaBull Robotaxi and Optimus sound exciting, but doesn't the margin story still hinge on unsupervised FSD actually landing first?

[Chloe Marlowe @nudy12345]

@HassanAesthetic Your point about black and white thinking fits the two timelines in the post. Which one feels more likely to you?

[Chloe Marlowe @nudy12345]

@CarlBranco That hope is doing a lot of work in those scenarios, especially the bit about others taking forever to catch up.

[Chloe Marlowe @nudy12345]

@amilinvestor That 95% point is a good one, and it fits your second scenario where the last bit just drags on. The odd anomaly is what keeps the date from being a date.

[Chloe Marlowe @nudy12345]

@npsheerin1987 Funny how both of your scenarios land on Tesla scrambling to build enough cars. Which of the two do you figure is playing out right now?

[Chloe Marlowe @nudy12345]

@simplehuman2024 Fair point that unsupervised FSD is harder than it looks, but the post's second scenario where it just creeps in gradually makes more sense to me.