Nugget Research

Nothing is investment advice

[Nugget Research @NuggetResearch]

@Sam_Badawi This slow process means a longer stretch of Kress running Nvidia, and per Reuters she's the one who clashed with Huang over the risky financing deals, which may be bad for neoclouds.

[Nugget Research @NuggetResearch]

@michaelsikand She can say steadfast all day, those deals are signed contracts and she has to honor them anyway. The $36B of AI cloud commitments in the July 10-Q is the old book. Neoclouds sold off over whether she signs the next one, and reaffirming the old ones doesn't answer that.

[Nugget Research @NuggetResearch]

Soros "dumping" $ADBE by 80% means a $5M position went to $1M, in an $8.5B portfolio, which barely matters. The biggest stock buy in the same filing was $INTC , from 100k shares to 2.83M, now the fund's largest stock holding, so that's the one worth watching.

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

A bunch of 13F activity is being filed right now. You can get it LIVE on unusualwhales!

For example, George Soros's Fund just released their new 13F.

Soros reduced 25% in $AAPL, -80% in $ADBE!!!!, -35% in $MSFT, -20% in $NVDA and more.

See more here: https://t.co/qnlV4fLvOh

[Nugget Research @NuggetResearch]

$ASTS unveiled its own rocket yesterday. Blacklift, 20 tons to orbit, all carbon composite, first flight late 2028. They showed engine videos and animations, but no real hardware.

The pitch is that they already know carbon fiber. But that experience comes from their satellites, and a satellite structure never has to hold liquid oxygen under pressure while engines shove on it.

The engine is Firefly's Miranda, and Miranda has never flown on any rocket, which means the so-called "proven flight heritage" line is about Firefly's smaller engines on Alpha. Miranda itself has none.

Firefly's carbon fiber record is thin too, because Alpha is the only carbon fiber rocket it has flown. Alpha lifts about 1 ton, a twentieth of Blacklift, and even that one fully succeeded on only 3 of its 7 flights.

So $ASTS's plan includes an engine that has never flown, carbon fiber at 20 times the size Firefly has flown it, and two years for something that usually takes about six. I wouldn't plan around a 2028 first flight.

And asts only needs its own rocket because of a mistake it made earlier. It picked satellites so big that only a few rockets can carry them, and never lined up launch of its own while it did. That's why two New Glenn setbacks were enough to push commercial service to 2027.

[Mason @MasonWaltemyer]

🚨JUST IN: $NVDA employees are firing their board of directors for the wrongful ousting of Founder & CEO @JensenHuang.

This comes as top engineers with the company are threatening to leave for $SPCX and $TSLA. Following the leadership of Jensen and teaming up with Elon Musk…

[Nugget Research @NuggetResearch]

@__NATEtheGREAT8 @endless_frank The rocket has a reason, it's too late. $ASTS built satellites only a few rockets can carry, so New Glenn's problems hit them hard. Falcon 9's 4.7 years is the record for a new medium-lift rocket. And now ASTS says 2 years on an engine that has never flown. I don't buy it

[Nugget Research @NuggetResearch]

@MohanadInv Tuesday tells you whether customers are walking away, because that shows up in Kress's guide first. What it can't tell you is who works Washington on China exports now, and that was Jensen's job.

[Nugget Research @NuggetResearch]

@_martinmutinda Those two aren't the same kind of shock. Nobody moves off 365 over a day of Outlook. $NVDA lost the guy who worked Washington, and that consequence shows up in a year or two, long after this week's market cap swap is forgotten.

[Nugget Research @NuggetResearch]

Last time PPI ran this far ahead of CPI was 2021-22, and core CPI went to 6.6% after. Now it's core PPI 5.0% vs core CPI ~2.8%. So either companies pass the gap on and core CPI follows again, or they eat it in margins.

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

BREAKING: Over 1,600 Nvidia employees urge the board to reinstate Jensen Huang as CEO, per WIRED.

[Nugget Research @NuggetResearch]

Profits up 69% and the multiple still went from 32 to 17. That means the market is treating this as peak earnings, so cheap on forward numbers is cheap on numbers it doesn't believe.
Tuesday's earnings won't settle it either because that quarter closed before Jensen left. The market is actually paying for how long the earnings last, and right now the market don't believe those previous earnings assumptions made before Jenson's departure.

[Nugget Research @NuggetResearch]

@junkbondanalyst That $125B backstop is about one year of Nvidia's free cash flow. And the person running Nvidia now is the CFO, whose whole job is to monitor that ratio. So the signed deals stay, and I'd bet the next one comes in a lot smaller.

[Lex Fridman @lexfridman]

NVIDIA letting Jensen go is a huge mistake, for America and for humanity. It's Apple firing Steve Jobs all over again, but much bigger, given the role of AI in defining the future of our world.

I've been keeping quiet on this out of respect for Jensen's family and team, who I've met and who are amazing humans, and because I personally hate infidelity. So my heart goes out to them in this difficult personal family moment.

But I can also say that Jensen is human, and makes mistakes like all of us do. Not that I matter at all, but I've known Jensen for a long time and have gotten the chance to spend a lot of time with him, behind the scenes, away from mics and cameras. I have seen him show kindness, humility, care to everyone around him, including strangers, including from the poorest most struggling parts of society, treating all the same with the same thoughtfulness and attention, because they are fellow humans and not because he has something to gain from them. That shows rare character, to maintain humility and humanity through all of it.

Another data point is what people who know him well have said privately to me about Jensen over the years. I've never had anyone tell me anything but how awesome he is or how much they love him. Probably over a thousand people at this point. This includes hundreds of engineers, CEOs, colleagues, friends, etc.

Also, since there was some spy talk. Jensen is as proud an American as it gets. I'm in shock frankly at all of this, including the mass hysteria around it. I love America, and I think NVIDIA letting Jensen go is terrible for America.

I stand with Jensen.

Love you all ❤️

[Nugget Research @NuggetResearch]

I don't think the recent $NVDA drop is an overreaction.

The near term really is fine, because next week's earning covers a quarter that ended Oct 25 and the next two years of demand come from hyperscaler capex plans.

But the near term is a small part of what the current stock price implies. Two years of Nvidia's free cash flow at the current pace is ~$254B, about 6-7% of the market cap. You pay for the other 90%+ because you think Nvidia keeps making the right calls after 2028, and the person who made those calls for 33 years just resigned. So knocking a chunk off for that is pretty reasonable. And I believe $NVDA without Jenson is a completely different business.

[Nugget Research @NuggetResearch]

Next Tuesday's $NVDA earning is a quarter that ended Oct 25 under Jensen, so it won't tell you much about the company after him. The guide comes from an interim CEO who is still also the CFO, which suggests the board had nobody inside ready to run the place.

[Nugget Research @NuggetResearch]

@cz_binance This is the dumbest decision in the world

[Nugget Research @NuggetResearch]

RT @cz_binance: It's mistake for Nvidia to let Jensen resign.

[Nugget Research @NuggetResearch]

This is the dumbest decision in the world

[NVIDIA Newsroom @nvidianewsroom]

NVIDIA announces CEO transition. Read the release: https://t.co/MTTUvFHCJA

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

@zerohedge That would be an honor