nuggetsharambe

孔

[Bernard Stanford ✡︎ @stanfordNYC]

Republicans are going to have a terrible night, and the simple reason why is that Trump has put up perhaps the worst *performance* this term of any president in a century or more.

Remember that he entered with an actual mandate: the House and Senate, a popular vote victory and a swing-state sweep, and 6-3 Supreme Court. Democrats were afraid enough to vote for mild but real immigration restrictionist legislation in the Laken Riley Act. Everyone wondered how far the "Vibe Shift" would go.

Trump managed to turn that into essentially zero durable wins whatsoever. He personally *hates* the very idea of legislation, the notion that he would have to spend time going back and forth with Congress, learning details and making compromises. So he simply didn't do it! He didn't make a compelling case for abolishing the filibuster. He didn't try communicating clearly to the public in support of popular bills to get to 60 votes. He just decided not to do it at all.

So they passed an unpopular tax cut, some funding for ICE, and a sop to the crypto industry, and that was basically it. Least productive Congress in decades, due to the tastes of one man.

Trump adopted one of the worst macro policies we've ever had: high deficits, high tariffs, and attacks on central bank independence. We managed to pay higher interest rates while still having high trade deficits AND weakening the dollar. Just a total failure.

On immigration, perhaps THE signature issue, Trump essentially min-maxxed effectiveness and backlash. Instead of trying to leverage the political moment for new laws and a self-deportation agenda (that is, walling off the economy to remove the benefit of irregular presence in the US), he opted for a maximally aggressive approach. The administration spent attention, funds, legal manpower on stunts like deporting random people to Salvadoran prisons with essentially no due process. ICE and Border Patrol were encouraged to be aggressive and confrontational, which helped contribute to the shooting deaths of American protestors. It turns out, that's extremely unpopular!

What about the approach of going after employers? The obvious vector? Trump hated that idea! He repeatedly has said he doesn't want to target businesses (especially farms) that use large amounts of illegal labor. This is just an incomprehensible position. Instead of charging a few dozen businessmen and removing the incentive for millions of illegal workers to be here, you arrest people off the street one by one at the cost of thousands of dollars in manpower per each, while their crying wives and kids post TikToks about it.

Upshot on immigration: electoral strength turned into a crippling electoral weakness in exchange for deporting maybe 6% of the illegally present population.

The tariffs were a total shitshow. Embarrassing rollout, no underlying theory of action at all. No targeted focus on key industries. Our country tariffed products we can't grow. We tariffed *inputs* of our own valuable exports. The schemes and amounts changed constantly, sending the stock market reeling and presenting scenes of chaos to the world.

Trump's messaging throughout has been generationally bad. While facing nearly 2:1 unpopularity, he spends his days posting AI slop, saying he'll rename New Mexico or invade allies, among other bizarre remarks. He brags about a ballroom and a pool repainting while gas hits records. At no point has he ever attempted any kind of message discipline.

Then there are the deeply unpopular attacks on rule of law, his "game-recognize-game" pardons for all manner of scammers and criminals, the crypto schemes that he and his family engage in, the evilly conceived and embarrassingly executed legal attacks on Comey, Jerome Powell, and others. With his monthslong stand on NOT releasing the Epstein files, he became maybe the first president ever to stake out a 99-1 issue on the 1% side.

That's not even getting into Iran, DOGE, his candidate recruitment choices, or countless other things. Simply put: Trump has managed to royally screw up virtually every single facet of his presidency. It's been undeniable, voters have noticed, and there's really no escape from it. This is what the GOP base chose in early 2024, and this is the world they're living with now. Where they handed the reins of history to a fat, vain, washed-up old man and let him drive.

[nuggetsharambe @nuggetsharambe]

@CmonMattTHINK The 1D random walk is null recurrent so yes but with expected time infinity

[空空道人02 @kongkongda5588]

非洲真的很缺水吗？其实“懒”才是他们穷的根本原因。有数据显示，非洲地下水储量是地表的100倍，为何他们不挖井，而是到处找水？
我之前跟着一支海外工程队在那边待了快八个月，亲眼见过太多让人匪夷所思的事，说出来真的好多人都不敢信。我们当时的营地建在一片开阔的草地上，刚过去的时候要解决用水问题，队里找了个测水的师傅随便找了个地方打井，打到不到十二米就出了清水，水质甜得很，除了供我们队四十多个人吃喝洗澡，还能引出一垄水浇我们开出来的小菜园，天天浇水都用不完。
而离我们营地不到两公里的地方，就有一个百十来口人的部落村子，我第一次跟着采购去村里的时候，就看见全村人都围着一个半米深的泥坑接水，那水浑得放半小时都澄清不了，水面上还飘着虫子和牲畜的粪便，小孩渴了蹲下来直接舀了就喝，大人也不管，不少小孩隔三差五就拉肚子，缺药耽误着能拖出大病，看着真的让人心疼。我当时就问翻译，咱们这边打井出了这么多水，他们咋不来打一口？翻译笑笑说，你往后看就知道了，不是水的事。
没过多久工程闲下来，队长说反正咱们设备人都有，不如免费帮他们打一口井，也算做件好事，结果第一步就卡壳了。村长带着一群人堵在我们选好的井址，说这块地是他们部落的公用土地，要打井就得给他们十袋面粉五桶食用油外加两箱汽水，不然别想动土。我们队里想着反正也不多，给就给了，就当换一口井给村里人用，这点东西对我们来说不算什么。
接下来要找几个当地人帮忙打下手搬东西，我们说好一天给一斤玉米面两瓶汽水，这个待遇在当地已经够一个三口之家吃饱喝足了，比他们自己瞎晃赚得多太多，结果来了五个人，干了不到四十分钟，全都撂挑子坐到树底下乘凉去了，说太阳太晒，会晒伤皮肤，祖宗规矩就是正午不能干活，要等太阳落山再干活。我们想着入乡随俗那就等，结果太阳落山之后，连个人影都没见着，第二天上午好不容易来了三个，还要求必须先给汽水玉米面，不给就不动手，我们给了之后，三个人晃悠着挖了不到半米，又坐下来歇着聊天了，一聊就是一上午，第三天干脆全都不来了，托人带话来说拿到的吃的够喝够吃好几天，先回家休息，吃完了再来。
最后没办法，我们工程队自己上手，不到十天就打出了一口出水稳定的井，还给他们在井口安了简易的提水架，放了两个大木桶，跟村长说以后大家随便来打水，只要别往井里扔垃圾就行。一开始村里人可开心了，天天排着队来打水，结果半个月不到，井口就堵了，我们过去一看，大大小小的树枝石头烂叶子堵了小半井，原来大家打完水垃圾随手就扔在井口边上，下雨一冲全进去了。我们免费帮他们清干净，反复跟村长和村民说不要扔垃圾，要保持井口干净，结果不到两个月，又堵了，之后村长干脆来找我们，说井坏了，你们再帮我们打一口新的吧，那语气说得理所当然，好像我们就该天天给他们收拾烂摊子。
我之前还碰到过一次，营地的围墙坏了一段，找了四个当地工人来修，说好一天干完给对应的工钱，结果四个工人八点开工，九点就歇着喝茶，十点吃早饭，十二点要睡午觉，睡到下午三点才起来，干了不到一小时又说要回家喂孩子，一天下来只码了不到五块砖，第二天还过来要全额工钱，说我们没给他们提供茶和饼，所以干得慢，钱不能少给，当时给我们队长气得直接把他们赶走了。
待得久了我才发现，这种事真的不是个例。有个二十多岁的小伙子天天来我们营地卖野果，我们看他挺活络，就说你干脆天天给我们营地送菜，我们一个月给你固定的工钱，比你卖野果稳定多了，结果他干了三天，第四天就不见了，过了一周晃悠过来，问他为啥不来，他说前三天赚的钱够花了，在家歇着花完了再来。还有国际援助组织免费给他们发蔬菜种子，教他们开荒种地，说种好了够全村吃大半年，结果一半种子被他们煮着吃了，剩下的随便往地里一撒，既不浇水也不除草，长不出来就接着等着发援助。
真的，很多人说非洲穷是因为气候不好历史遗留问题，可我们明明看到脚底下十几米就是清水，储量够整个村子用几十年，有人免费帮你打出来，就只要随手维护一下都做不到。他们不是没有力气，跑出去找野果跳篝火舞能折腾一整天，一说到干活赚饭吃，半小时就喊累；也不是没有资源，地下水摆在那，援助摆在那，就是不肯伸手去动。
我待了八个月见过好多口废弃的援助井，全都是打完没两年没人维护废了，当地人宁愿背着水桶走三四公里去接脏雨水，也不肯花半天时间清一清堵了的井口。你说这到底是延续了几千年的靠天吃饭的生活方式已经刻进骨子里改不了，还是真的就是“懒”才导致一直摆脱不了穷呢？你怎么看这件事？

[Saritha Komatireddy @sarithaforny]

Name one former New York Attorney General you admire.

Letitia James: 🦗🦗🦗

[Kamikaze Cash @kamikazecash]

I’d abandon every dollar I paid into social security and pay a $10 K buyout fee just to opt out of the program.

If you have the mental capacity to use a smartphone to open a broker and type “VOO,” then social security is a worthless program to you.

Social security should be reduced to just the disability aspect and survivorship for minor children. It should be basically a non-optional disability and survivorship program.

The $10K buyout fee should generate substantial new revenue that can pay out until the program runs out of money and is abandoned.

The Ponzi scheme has run out of investors and it’s time for a brave politician to stop kicking the can down the road.

[Dudley Newright @NewRightPoast]

You ask a lib how much they're spending per kid at the PvP-enabled Chromebook Academy in Brooklyn and they say "I dunno, $3,000?" Then you tell them it's actually $45,000, and they look at you like this and say "Well, maybe it should be $100,000."

[RE-OPEN THE SIZZLERS @SaladBarFan]

Nobody:

Nikole Hannah-Jones vs her daughter in the NYT:

[Liron Shapira @liron]

The exquisitely beautiful thing about theoretical math research is how it uncovers deep connections between seemingly unrelated fields.

Like the connection between Erdős’s planar unit-distance conjecture and matrix multiplication.

Or non-sofic groups and matrix multiplication.

Or arithmetic circuit lower bounds for the permanent and matrix multiplication.

Or high-dimensional sphere packing and matrix multiplication.

Or Navier–Stokes and matrix multiplication.

[Kevin DeAnna @VDAREJamesK]

Soon we will discover whether this is the most important story in the world and the subject of a future movie or a nonevent that is a criminal offense to even speak of.

[JT @jiratickets]

"claude fable just proved the jacobian conjecture is false"

"incredible this changes everything"

"do you know what the jacobian conjecture is?"

"no, do you?"

"no"

[nuggetsharambe @nuggetsharambe]

@DeepDishEnjoyer Meh that explains neural networks reaching complexites doesn’t explain much about say how models are genuinely extracting features in an image or why overfitting still leads to generalized learning there’s not really any real statistical deep learning theory

[Daniel @growing_daniel]

Politics in this state are so ass backwards man like how did we reach the point where this is supposed to be positive messaging

[Daniel Friedman @DanFriedman81]

Brett Kavanaugh, a man in his 50s, had been valedictorian of his high school, at Yale College and a star student at Yale Law, had clerked for the Supreme Court, had a top career as an appellate lawyer and federal judge and a pristine reputation, and then a random woman from the town he grew up in claimed he had groped her at a party 35 years earlier when they were in high school.

Kavanaugh didn’t try to argue that the incident was consensual. He didn’t claim he remembered things differently than she did. He immediately stated that he had never even met the accuser. Denying ever meeting the accuser is a much stronger claim than merely denying assaulting her, and much easier to refute. After Kavanaugh made this denial, Christine Blasey-Ford no longer had to prove he had sexually assaulted her to scuttle his nomination, she only had to prove that the two of them had attended a party together at which such an assault might have occurred.

She was unable to do so. She did not know whose house the alleged assault occurred at. None of the people she claimed attended the party corroborated any aspect of her account. Leland Keyser, a friend of Blasey-Ford’s, who the accuser claimed was at the alleged party, said she recalled no such event and had never met Kavanaugh.

Kavanaugh produced a detailed calendar he had kept during the summer Blasey-Ford alleged she was assaulted, which included his whereabouts of every weekend night and listing who he was with. Kavanaugh argued that he could alibi himself and provide witnesses for any night Blasey-Ford claimed she might have been at a party with him. Blasey-Ford responded that she did not know the date of her assault and was not entirely certain it even occurred that year. Instead of being seen as persuasive, Kavanaugh’s calendar was mocked in both mainstream and social media because the reason he kept it was for a drinking contest he was having with his friends.

Nearly a decade later, there is still not a single shred of proof or a single witness who will corroborate the claim that Brett Kavanaugh and Christine Blasey-Ford were ever in the same room before she testified at his confirmation hearing. Nonetheless, people like Nick Kristof still claim Kavanaugh was “credibly accused” of sexually assaulting this woman.

[bumbadum @bumbadum14]

FUCK YOU
FUCK YOU
FUCK YOU
FUCK YOU
FUCK YOU
FUCK YOU
FUCK YOU
FUCK YOU
FUCK YOU
FUCK YOU
FUCK YOU
FUCK YOU
FUCK YOU
FUCK YOU
FUCK YOU
FUCK YOU
FUCK YOU
FUCK YOU
FUCK YOU
FUCK YOU
FUCK YOU
FUCK YOU
FUCK YOU
FUCK YOU
FUCK YOU
FUCK YOU
FUCK YOU
FUCK YOU
FUCK YOU
FUCK YOU

[PoIiMath @politicalmath]

The big defense of Platner is this "Sure, ok, he got a Nazi tattoo. But do you *really* think he's a Nazi? For real, you don't *really* think that."

This is sickening to me b/c they expect their right-wing opponents to be honest on a thing where they have an entire industry supporting this accusations of racism and Nazism in order to destroy the lives of their ideological opponents.

Walz never thought Elon Musk gave a Nazi salute. No one on the left *really* thought that. No one on the left *really* thinks that Musk is a Nazi except for the mid-wittiest of midwits who are so susceptible to suggestion, they are prime candidates for cult membership.

The SPLC has pulled in over a billion in donations calling mainstream conservatives anti-Semites and racists when they know that's not true. Just this week, left-wing cartoonists portrayed a black SCOTUS justice as a KKK member. Does they really believe that? Of course not! But they will say that they do.

If you ask left-wingers "come on, you never really believed that these people were Nazis and racists", they will just lie to you and tell you "yes, I genuinely believe that throwing up the OK symbol was racist and, if you push me on it, I will double and triple down on it. I will insist that I am an idiot even though these people are obviously not Nazis. I'm locked in on this stupid position and I will use any accusation of this kind to ruin your life even though I know it's not true."

They expect you to be honest when they absolutely would not and then they will leverage your honesty to advance their own purposes without EVER granting you the same benefit of the doubt or honest assessment.

[bumbadum @bumbadum14]

Liberal Supreme Court justices dissent like it’s a twitter post lmao

[Basil🧡 (they/them) @LinkofSunshine]

“Oh I pressed the kill myself button so now you also have to press the kill yourself button to save me from my decision 🥺🥺🥺🥺🥺🥺”

Just don’t press the god damn kill yourself button???

[Hunter Ash @ArtemisConsort]

Space exploration is great because it reveals the moral evil of the anti-colonialists. There are no indigenous humans on the moon. There is no life on the moon at all. Turns out they just hate progress. They hate knowledge and growth and beauty.