Numenor Research

High-conviction research on equities, commodities, and the forces moving markets.

[Numenor Research @NumenResearch]

Check out my latest research on El Niño and conspiring factors that make me bullish on palm oil.

https://t.co/BpdmbeHvj2

I’m long September 2027 FCPO.

[Numenor Research @NumenResearch]

Big if true https://t.co/5fbKk4S0V7

[Numenor Research @NumenResearch]

I wonder to what extent this amplifies herd mentality. Maybe retail panic will decrease but markets will become more concentrated as agents succumb repetition-induced truth effect and guide trend portfolios towards prominent names.

https://t.co/FTB8GGyaGQ

[Numenor Research @NumenResearch]

@Metro_TV The larger palm-oil yield hit from this dry spell typically appears 6–12 months later. https://t.co/BpdmbeHvj2

[Numenor Research @NumenResearch]

@FPKSDPRRI B50's contribution to energy independence depends on whether the subsidy fund can sustain the blend. https://t.co/BpdmbeHvj2

[Numenor Research @NumenResearch]

@mkt_intl This cycle's wetter start may push the harvest impact later than the 2015 analog suggests. https://t.co/BpdmbeHvj2

[Numenor Research @NumenResearch]

@yadochia Yes — Indo/M’sia dry stress cuts yields with a lag. B50 makes world prices the residual, not the estate yield print itself. https://t.co/BpdmbeHvj2

[Numenor Research @NumenResearch]

@aakashgupta The 6–24 month palm lag is right; most tonnes hit in the first 6–12. This event also started wetter than 2015, so the shortage calendar is later than the June advisory implied. https://t.co/BpdmbeHvj2

[Numenor Research @NumenResearch]

@gaurav_kochar B50 now claims might surpass 16 mt in Indonesia, so any weather miss comes out of exports first! https://t.co/BpdmbeHvj2

[Numenor Research @NumenResearch]

@gaurav_kochar Agree on the lag. This cycle also has less new mature area than 1998 or 2016, so the per-hectare drop has less offset. https://t.co/BpdmbeHvj2

[Numenor Research @NumenResearch]

@steve_hanke 30–40% is the analog range. In the last two strong El Niños the low printed during the event and the peak came after it faded. https://t.co/BpdmbeHvj2

[Numenor Research @NumenResearch]

@business 3 mt is a plausible first cut. The bigger miss usually prints 6–12 months after the dry spell, and this drought flipped late. https://t.co/BpdmbeHvj2

[Numenor Research @NumenResearch]

@Ole_S_Hansen @UNFAO Check out my newly published deep dive into palm oil production on my substack: https://t.co/UdyMnQW6MQ