Drunken Market Wizard

institutional investor by day, degen trader by night - using this space to post my trades, thought process and self criticisms

[Drunken Market Wizard @yadochia]

Experimenting with AI to generate ideas. June this year, no softs book, heard about a "super" El Niño. Asked AI what is not in the price. It said Sugar #11 Mar 27, not the front. Bought the 20-strike expiring 16 Feb 27 at 0.50. Now 1.04. Will share how I use AI to track the dataflow to validate or kill the trade.

[Drunken Market Wizard @yadochia]

A Brazilian mill is not growing "sugar." It is growing cane. Each tonne can be crystal or ethanol. They pick whichever pays more that week.

Ethanol is two products. Mix-in ethanol is required in gasoline by law (Brazil raised that this August). That is a floor. Straight ethanol competes with gasoline at the pump. If ethanol is under about 70% of the gasoline price, drivers fill with ethanol, and mills lean fuel.

That is why sugar can rise when oil spikes even if Brazil's field is huge. It is a mix switch, not a drought. It does not move tick for tick with oil.

El Niño is the other tail: Droughts in India and Thailand impact supply with lag. The March 2027 future contract can catch both.

[Drunken Market Wizard @yadochia]

What is in the price, and what is the target for March 2027 sugar?

~19 cents a pound currently prices in El Niño odds + industry forecast of 2.9 million tonnes short in 2027/28. Last El Niño, 2015-16, sugar hit about 24 cents on a 5 million tonne shortfall. That 24 is the analogue if a hole like that prints.

To go higher from here we want to see actual deterioration in harvest data from India/Thailand, and India still not shipping after 30 Sep.

[Drunken Market Wizard @yadochia]

The El Niño trade is Mar 27 sugar, not this harvest. Key data AI is helping to watch:

1) India monsoon - watch CPC (the Niño forecast), next 10 Sep

2) Brazil sugar vs ethanol mix - watch Conab, last 20 Aug (less sugar, more ethanol)

3) India importing vs exporting - watch the 1 million tonne import quota through 31 Oct, and the export ban, next 30 Sep

4) World balances - watch WASDE, next 11 Sep

Close trade if CPC downgrades the Niño, India skips the import or resumes exports, or Brazil increases the sugar mix.

[Drunken Market Wizard @yadochia]

@ku_ds17868 Yes. The idea is a query. The work is the dataflow. That's the series.

[Drunken Market Wizard @yadochia]

Experimenting with AI to generate ideas. June this year, no softs book, heard about a "super" El Niño. Asked AI what is not in the price. It said Sugar #11 Mar 27, not the front. Bought the 20-strike expiring 16 Feb 27 at 0.50. Now 1.04. Will share how I use AI to track the dataflow to validate or kill the trade.

[Drunken Market Wizard @yadochia]

AI at real time speed enables real world usefulness

[Andrew Feldman @andrewdfeldman]

.@cerebras now powers Ultrafast, a new service tier in @OpenAI's API that runs GPT-5.6 Sol at up to 750 output tokens per second.

This creates an entirely new point on the speed-intelligence frontier.

Enterprises can now build with frontier intelligence at real-time speeds.

Coding agents that iterate alongside developers.

Research systems that analyze and synthesize information in seconds.

Enterprise agents that reason, act, and respond without making users wait.

When intelligence moves this quickly, it changes the products you can create and the experiences you can deliver.

GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast is beginning with a limited API preview. Capacity is expected to grow over time.

Proud of the Cerebras and OpenAI teams for bringing this to life.

[Drunken Market Wizard @yadochia]

@aleabitoreddit $CBRS will have monster demand from inference loads and unconstrained by HBM supply

[Drunken Market Wizard @yadochia]

$GOOGL strong earnings beat and selloff indicates the market continues to sell the spenders and long the vendors

Cashflow from search, YouTube etc continues to pour into Ai infra spending with full conviction

[Drunken Market Wizard @yadochia]

So @saylor is now a net seller of $BTC

[Drunken Market Wizard @yadochia]

Investing in SoftBank $9984.T is essentially buying $ARM and a collection of bets on physical AI + OpenAI for free

[Drunken Market Wizard @yadochia]

@chickengenius Maybe short demand also coming from $spcx shareholders who are in lockup period and wanna lock in gains

[Drunken Market Wizard @yadochia]

@investmattallen A watt coming from a Blackwell chip is also worth a lot more than a watt from an older chip

[Drunken Market Wizard @yadochia]

@aleabitoreddit Maybe hesai https://t.co/Zl9dLV6vHI, leading LIDAR manufacturer which are the eyes for humanoids

[Drunken Market Wizard @yadochia]

@twaphaus @MarioNawfal Without the noise

[Drunken Market Wizard @yadochia]

@Soozee_O @MarioNawfal The noise

[Drunken Market Wizard @yadochia]

Market coming to realizing that in the agentic world CPUs are actually the arms of GPUs to get work done, and ironically the biggest winner is called $ARM

[Drunken Market Wizard @yadochia]

$BWXT produces the main fuel (TRISO) that would be used to power the Moon mining economy

[Drunken Market Wizard @yadochia]

@cryptopunk7213 Good human actors will be worth more in the age of ai

[Drunken Market Wizard @yadochia]

The clock on $BTC to become quantum resistant has started or else…

[Drunken Market Wizard @yadochia]

Yummy green tacos today