Sam Nussbaum

commonly sensical. always reading tweets and rarely writing them.

[Isaac Saul @Ike_Saul]

Politico is not being funneled cash by USAID.

Politico has a very expensive pro subscription that is an entire platform for tracking legislation, votes, lawsuits, reporting, and elite legislative analysis.

These subscriptions cost north of $10,000. Private sector CEOs and lobbyists pay for them. As do government workers. I’ve subscribed and use them before. They are amazing tools for keeping an eye on the government.

Politico sells these premium trade pubs to agencies. Duh. Govt agencies (like the private sector) want to work on the best info available. They (meaning CEOs and private corporations and the govt) wouldn’t pay if Politico wasn’t providing value.

Forcing the cancellation of these subscriptions is anti capitalist nonsense that is gonna make our government dumber, not smarter.

But more importantly - it isn’t some massive corrupt scheme. Politico does invaluable reporting in these trade pubs, so people pay.

A bunch of people looked at these expenses and thought they uncovered a massive scandal of “donations” or “funding” when really they discovered a success 10+ year old trade publication.

A bunch of conservative writers who work at subscription based publications are claiming this is some conflict of interest, yet they all write articles every day about people who subscribe to their work. I do this too at Tangle - it’s not a conflict of interest to write about people who pay to access your writing!

Please just spend 30 seconds thinking critically before swallowing all this stuff whole.

[Jessica Riedl 🧀 🇺🇦 @JessicaBRiedl]

“Why aren’t you cheering Trump & DOGE? I thought you wanted spending and deficit cuts!"

Because I’ve been doing this for 25 years and can’t be tricked by gimmicky nonsense. Trump’s first term added $8 trillion in enacted spending hikes and tax cuts to the deficit - half of which was unrelated to the pandemic. This time around, Trump has proposed roughly $8 trillion more in tax cuts and spending hikes over the decade. And right now, a GOP Congress is preparing to abandon most reconciliation cuts and instead add $325 billion this year in new spending. We’re headed towards $4 trillion deficits within a decade.

So, no, I don’t get excited when DOGE cancels $1 billion in govt contracts. Or saves $3 billion in federal workforce reductions out of a $7,000 billion budget. Not when Trump and Congress are also preparing to add $800 billion more annually in proposed new tax cuts and spending.

And no, the huge savings are not coming. Even (unrealistically) eliminating 20% of the federal workforce would save $60 billion, and overhauling federal systems to sharply reduce payment errors may save perhaps $80 billion (and is probably unlikely too). For all of DOGE’s bluster, administrative and executive reforms would at best save 1-2% of federal spending and offset only a small fraction of Trump’s red ink agenda.

That leaves trying to unilaterally impound spending such as USAID—which is wildly illegal—or actually going to Congress to pare back spending the constitutional way. But Trump has already taken Social Security, Medicare, defense, veterans, border (and interest) off the table, which is 2/3 of all spending and is driving deficits. And the GOP Congress seems ready to give up on cutting the remaining one-third of spending. Want to cut spending and the deficit? How about they stop passing budget-busting bills. Don’t brag about your coupon-clipping frugality at the same time you are buying a $250,000 Ferrari. I’m not going to cheer Trump and DOGE for adding “only” $750 billion to deficits instead of $800 billion. We’re still going backwards.

I’ve spent decades studying the federal budget. I know that $7 trillion(!) behemoth inside and out – where the money really goes, and where the savings opportunities lie. So I can also detect bullshitters who talk tough about trillion-dollar spending cuts without doing their homework. It’s the ones who claim most spending goes to undefined “waste,” federal salaries, immigrants, foreigners, Ukraine, or non-working welfare recipients. It’s the ones who claim we can easily balance the budget or cut $1 trillion without specifying exactly what line-items to cut. Or that we can return to 2019 spending levels for each program, which means a 20% inflationary cut, defaulting on the federal debt, and kicking off every senior who has since retired into Social Security and Medicare. It’s all hot air and empty bluster. Tough talk without following through on anything substantive. Just wait until you see the final deficit numbers in October.

And this is why GOP movements to cut spending always fail. They make absurdly ambitious promises without doing their homework, understanding where the money goes, and specifying real plans to fix it. You can’t significantly cut the deficit just by cutting waste, firing bureaucrats, and defunding immigrants and foreigners. There are no easy short cuts. You have to stop cutting taxes and then address Social Security, Medicare, defense, and a lot of other popular programs. Wake me when the GOP goes there.

So, no, I will not get excited about a couple billion in DOGE savings on one hand while Trump pushes Congress to add $8 trillion over the decade in tax cuts and spending with the other hand. I’m not that gullible.

[Sam Nussbaum @nussbaumsam]

@allstarcharts Strong data = yields up. Keep it simple

[Sam Nussbaum @nussbaumsam]

@yashar I feel bad as well, but mostly because I assume that they are working involuntarily. They may have little savings and need supplement social security to keep up with high costs of living

[Sam Nussbaum @nussbaumsam]

@maxfeinblatt same

[Sam Nussbaum @nussbaumsam]

@carlquintanilla @JimCameron @IMAX did you see it in 3D? IMAX? is either or both necessary to have the immersive experience?

[Sam Nussbaum @nussbaumsam]

@J4_doji I think you mean $TBT

[Sam Nussbaum @nussbaumsam]

@notthefakeSVP Li should change his name to Haolong. As in - Haolong can he stay on the range?

[Sam Nussbaum @nussbaumsam]

@J4_fibo one crypto post is one too many

[Noah Stern @MrNoahStern]

We had to cancel our wedding on 3/21 so went for a hike instead! Veil and bow tie did well in the wind. Still pretty thirsty, could use some @BuschBeer! #BuschWeddingGift #Sweepstakes

[Andrew Yang🧢⬆️🇺🇸 @AndrewYang]

I will give $1,000/mo for the next 12 months FREE to someone who retweets this and follows me by July 4th 😃 Let's show why money is the answer & why this is the campaign for people. No purchase necessary. US citizens only. https://t.co/ie7DMHJ86X

[Danielle Pletka 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 🇺🇦 @dpletka]

Thanks @nytimes for another chapter of stupid in the Trump era. Who the hell writes an anonymous op-ed ? The piece isn’t terrible; just obvious. Man up and sign your name. Or quit. There are enough good Americans who can serve even this president w/o hiding behind the grey lady.

[Sam Nussbaum @nussbaumsam]

@JetPhotos That’s LAX!

[Sam Nussbaum @nussbaumsam]

@chinaschau @duolingo I’m in

[Sam Nussbaum @nussbaumsam]

@g_bluestone RIP @ASacksHo @TDucklo

[Sam Nussbaum @nussbaumsam]

@FennyFen explains why rich people like traveling so much

[Sam Nussbaum @nussbaumsam]

@zerohedge Isn’t that every week?

[Sam Nussbaum @nussbaumsam]

bearish https://t.co/TP2eICHa7e

[Bloomberg @business]

Silicon Valley’s next target for disruption is socks https://t.co/hdbALwmUT8

[Sam Nussbaum @nussbaumsam]

@FennyFen cc @Wu_Tang_Finance

[Grizzly Bear @grizzlybear]

Watching @suresuremusic live. Swear they could be huge! So melodic and catchy 😍