Bran Stan

My newspaper clipping.

[Nader Itayim | ‌‌نادر ایتیّم @ncitayim]

🇮🇷 Iran's energy minister Abbas Aliabadi says the country will "soon" begin work to link up its electricity grid to Qatar's.

"Studies are in the final stage; we are at the beginning of the implementation work." Iran is "also studying" connections with other countries, he said.

[MoloMonitor 🇮🇹 @MoloWarMonitor]

I just found the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli (LHA-7) on Sentinel-2 satellite imagery, 15/06/2026.

It is currently sailing northeast into the Sea of Oman, no visible escort.

Coordinates: 21.636509, 60.517468

@MenchOsint
@FaytuksNetwork
@EGYOSINT
@AryJeayBackup

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: SpaceX, $SPCX, is now worth $2.5 trillion and the 6th largest public company in the world.

SpaceX is now just 5% away from surpassing Amazon as the 5th largest public company in the world.

[prinz @deredleritt3r]

Financial Times, quoting a person close to OpenAI:

"In recent days, the [AI] industry has been working [with the USG] on ensuring foreign national researchers could continue to work on developing the most advanced models, a practice that the Anthropic directive has now banned."

This appears to indicate that the USG wants to restrict non-U.S. persons from working on frontier models generally, across the industry (not just at Anthropic).

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

Iranian Media: Three oil tankers and two ships carrying essential Iranian goods "passed" through the US Naval Blockade.

[Polymarket Intel @PolymarketIntel]

Israeli Defense Minister Katz: Israel will not leave southern Lebanon, Syria, or Gaza - no time limit. Security zones will be cleared and all terror infrastructure destroyed.

Netanyahu made this clear to Trump. Katz told Hegseth yesterday. Both oppose withdrawal despite the U.S.-Iran ceasefire that reportedly includes Hezbollah.

Katz warned Iran that any attack on Israel over Lebanon will be met "with full force."

[Bran Stan @nybtsy]

While the Hormuz is unlikely to open fully, there's a decent chance the dual blockade will be loosened regardless.

Important to watch for the oil flow.

[Bran Stan @nybtsy]

The important takeaway is both sides are having contradictory interpretations of the alleged deal, just like in April.

If you trust the admin which failed to get a Ukraine deal after 17 months to deliver an Iran deal soon, idk what to tell you.

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Iran says the US has agreed to pay $300 billion in reconstruction funds directly to Iran as part of the deal Pakistan announced, alongside the release of $24 billion in frozen funds with $12 billion released before negotiations even start, per Mehr News.

This directly contradicts Trump's & Vance's claim that no funds will be transferred to Iran at all.

If Trump denies this is true, there never was a deal. If Trump confirms, the US has fully capitulated to Iran's demands.

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

“These forecasts have been abysmal. My dots wouldn’t be perfect either, so I wouldn’t give them.”

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has spent 15 years arguing the central bank says too much. Wednesday is his first meeting. My story on the quiet revolution he wants:

[Bran Stan @nybtsy]

Again with the performative public outrage. It takes concrete action to restrain Israel.

Don't think the deal will be signed anytime soon.

[Barak Ravid @BarakRavid]

🇺🇸🇮🇷🇮🇱Trump tells me: Netanyahu has "no fucking judgment" but Iran deal still on. My story on @axios
https://t.co/yA4Av8kpkx

[Bran Stan @nybtsy]

Iran, via its National Security Council spokesperson, has committed tor retaliation.

[ابراهیم رضایی @EbrahimRezaei14]

نباید دچار خطای محاسباتی شد؛
حتی اگر توافق یا تفاهمی هم بخواهید مسیر آن تأدیب رژیم صهیونیستی است، اگر این سگ هار کنترل نشود امضای تفاهم خشک‌نشده، پای خودمان را گاز خواهد گرفت.
#ضاحیه

[fxevolution @fxevolution]

One-third analysis

What is price doing?
What is volume/flow doing?
What is the data saying?

One-third execution

Entry.
Risk.
Position size.

One-third psychology

Patience.
Discipline.
Review.

Most traders spend 90% of their effort on analysis and almost none on execution or psychology. The best traders/investors tend to distribute attention more evenly across all three.

[Bran Stan @nybtsy]

Israel just struck Dahieh, Beirut, Lebanon, one of Iran's red line, effectively throwing a wrench in the MOU signing.

The newly 80 years old President will wake up to a pleasant surprise from his friend in Tel Aviv.

I expect Iran to retaliate and shelve the MOU.

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

Israeli military strikes Hezbollah positions in Beirut's southern suburbs: statement

[BBC Breaking News @BBCBreaking]

UK has intercepted Russian shadow fleet oil tanker attempting to go through English Channel, says PM Keir Starmer https://t.co/SKutvgPyjl

[Hindustan Times @htTweets]

The opposition parties on Saturday stepped up pressure on the Centre over the deaths of three Indian seafarers in US military strikes on commercial vessels off the coast of Oman, with NCP (SP) MP Supriya Sule demanding a stronger response from the government and promising support for the affected families.

The remarks came a day after India summoned a top American diplomat in New Delhi for the second time this week and lodged a strong protest over the attacks, which have claimed the lives of three Indian crew members and raised concerns about the safety of Indian mariners operating in the Gulf of Oman amid the West Asia conflict.

More details: https://t.co/LAXnVCzuHl

[Bran Stan @nybtsy]

The Strait of Hormuz is Iran's most significant source of leverage. If the floodgate opened, it would take months to rebuild pressure on the US to the current level.

Don't expect a fully open Hormuz. Loosening is possible, but understand that Iran will demand a lot in return.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: President Trump says a deal with Iran is scheduled to be signed tomorrow, immediately reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

[Barak Ravid @BarakRavid]

President Trump will hold a separate bilateral meetings with leaders of Qatar, UAE and Egypt on Tuesday on the sidelines of the G7 summit, U.S. official says. Netanyahu is not expected to attend

[Bran Stan @nybtsy]

Mostly True. Now that Iran receives the frozen cash, the US blockade no longer bites as hard economically.

The most viable way for the US to regain leverage is expanding the 'dark flow' of oil against the IRGC. Failing which, there will be little pressure on Tehran to negotiate.

[Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape]

Trump is getting fleeced by Iran

The deal:
• $24B cash + oil sales
• Just 60 days of open Hormuz
Iran pockets $30B+ in two months

Day 61, Iran can close Hormuz again, and repeat the extortion

Massive loss for Trump—Huge win for Iran

[Bran Stan @nybtsy]

The location of the strike implies it was IRGC's work.

[Bran Stan @nybtsy]

The Hormuz blockade by Iran is showing sign of leakage. Traffic remains less than 20% of prewar level but there appears to be a steady flow for the past few weeks.

It would be interesting to observe what happens to this flow now that Iran announces SOH is 'fully closed'.

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

China: Washington's steps toward our companies contradict Beijing Summit understandings