Oaktree & Lion

Cryptocurrency Proprietary Trading and Startup Hedge Fund - Volatility Strategies. Portfolio Management.

[Oaktree & Lion @oaktreeandlion]

Join us for a panel discussion on tokenisation of commodities tomorrow at @LDN_Blockchain with guest speakers @AshurstPerkins and @jbonne5

[Two Prime @Two_Prime]

🧵Market Insight - 9 January 2026 - Derivatives Starting to Stir by Two Prime's Head of Trading Conrad Carvalho

In the first five tradfi trading days of the year, Bitcoin spot US ETF flows started strong but reversed most of the gains, ending with net inflows of $40.4m. Bitcoin price action broadly tracked these flows, with no other major catalysts at play. This was insufficient to break the $85-95k range highlighted in last week’s market insight, and the price has reverted toward the middle of the range, further reinforcing range-bound conditions.

[Two Prime @Two_Prime]

🧵Market Insight - 2 January 2026 - New Year, New Patterns - by Two Prime Head of Trading Conrad Carvalho

The close of 2025 marked a break from Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle (-6.3% in year 3 of this cycle vs. significant positive returns in year 3 of each of the last three cycles). This suggests a high probability of another volatile year, one in which previous patterns are no longer reliable and new market dynamics will take hold. A key structural driver is the continued expansion of digital asset derivatives, particularly options, into traditional finance infrastructure such as IBIT-linked and crypto-linked equity options markets. While traditional markets remain in early-January holiday mode, Bitcoin is already showing signs of repositioning and emerging conviction.

[Two Prime @Two_Prime]

🧵Market Insight - 19th December 2025 by Two Prime's Head of Trading Conrad Carvalho

A short period of quiet has started today, taking hold across markets for the Christmas period. The key question is whether any of the various drivers of volatility, namely news flow, conviction, and liquidity, have also slowed down into year-end now or will stick around to generate some meaningful price action.

[Two Prime @Two_Prime]

🧵Market Insight - 21st November 2025 - Spot-Vol Stress? by Head of Trading Conrad Carvalho

Derivatives markets have remained relatively calm in recent weeks, with skew hovering at depressed levels and implied vol rising linearly as prices have trended down. That stable behaviour is now beginning to fracture, and early signs of stress are emerging.

[Two Prime @Two_Prime]

https://t.co/WRDWxiOYuC

[Two Prime @Two_Prime]

Two Prime Lending @twoprimelending Offers 0% OID Loans for Institutional Bitcoin Holders

Read more here 👇
https://t.co/ODjqCQt9BY

[Two Prime @Two_Prime]

🧵Market Insight - 26th August 2025 - Consolidating or Just Pretending? by Two Prime Head of Trading Conrad Carvalho

As discussed in Alex’s last insight (22nd August), Powell’s Jackson Hole comments gave Bitcoin a confidence boost, sending it briefly 5% higher from $111.9k to $117.4k

[Two Prime @Two_Prime]

Introducing the Bitcoin Corporate Treasury Playbook, written by Two Prime CEO @alexandersblume for @Forbes

Read here: https://t.co/f4NZlMI50M

[Two Prime @Two_Prime]

🧵Marketing Insight - Friday, May 9, 2025 by Two Prime Head of Trading Conrad Carvalho

This week's standout event was undoubtedly the breakout in BTC and ETH, bringing us closer to retesting all-time highs - a surprising move given the evident, until now, summer lull in crypto markets. But beyond crypto, several important macro developments also shaped market sentiment:

[Oaktree & Lion @oaktreeandlion]

If you are in the digital asset or hedge fund space, join us for a talk on derivatives and alpha strategies that I’m moderating (DM for details)… https://t.co/PkDheCbJRv

[Oaktree & Lion @oaktreeandlion]

Going to @EBlockchainCon ? Check out the below and DM to say hi there... https://t.co/z0v5rNLM3V

[Oaktree & Lion @oaktreeandlion]

The 2024 YTD performance for our main strategy:
Total/Ann. Return = 27.6 / 33.9%
Sharpe/Sortino Ratio = 3.0 / 3.9
Max DD = -5.1%

Further details at https://t.co/fd8bPYZ8k6

[Deribit @DeribitOfficial]

The most in-depth crypto options podcast is back from holiday! 🌴

😎 Special guest:
Conrad Carvalho, Head of Trading @oaktreeandlion, a proprietary trading and research firm specializing in crypto options.

📺YouTube: https://t.co/qi8qbvplLf

📺Spotify: https://t.co/XEJRbJjc7k

🎧 Apple Podcast: https://t.co/kxzHbz7RmG

David gives his update on the latest macro developments over the last few weeks as we head into a week of key data from FOMC, Non-farm payrolls, and Mega-cap tech earnings. Imran and Conrad discuss the latest vol crush in crypto options and Conrad explains some of the approaches he uses to extract value from mis-pricings in the vol surface while running a market-neutral strategy. This is another great example of an equity derivatives professional with decades of experience finding the allure of crypto vol an opportunity too good to miss.

[Oaktree & Lion @oaktreeandlion]

We at @oaktreeandlion did the 1st trade in @DeribitExchange's newly launched #Solana #USDC options contracts. Exciting to be trading alt-coin options, & begin growing our trading across the whole alt-coin options market!

Watch it here: https://t.co/Fx47QYgmr8

@DeribitInsights

[Oaktree & Lion @oaktreeandlion]

@DeribitExchange $DOT, $ADA and a few others I’m thinking about!

[Eric Balchunas @EricBalchunas]

HERE WE GO AGAIN: ARK/21Shares has just filed an amended S-1 for their spot Ether ETF, looks like they updated to be only cash creations and some other things that bring it in line w the recently approved spot btc etf prospectus..

[Oaktree & Lion @oaktreeandlion]

@DeribitExchange More clues please!

[Oaktree & Lion @oaktreeandlion]

@adigital123 Congratulations!

[Oaktree & Lion @oaktreeandlion]

We are speaking on hedge funds at the @HedgeWeek European Digital Assets Summit tomorrow with @SimmonsLLP and Curiosity Capital.