𝕕𝕒𝕧𝕚𝕕 𝕠𝕓𝕣𝕠𝕟𝕥

in pursuit of curiosity, equanimity and golf balls

[𝕕𝕒𝕧𝕚𝕕 𝕠𝕓𝕣𝕠𝕟𝕥 @obront]

"There are at least a billion people on earth at this moment who would consider their prayers answered if they could trade places with you."
~ Sam Harris

[𝕕𝕒𝕧𝕚𝕕 𝕠𝕓𝕣𝕠𝕟𝕥 @obront]

@VincentDeluard yes it will ultimately be good for canada to get away from property speculation addiction but, like developing the resources now, aren't the benefits years away while the pain is arriving soon?

[𝕕𝕒𝕧𝕚𝕕 𝕠𝕓𝕣𝕠𝕟𝕥 @obront]

JPY long / EUR short is another superb call imo ❤️

disagree on CAD against a EUR short ... yes there is relatively high political approval but Canada has a consumer real estate problem that is now exacerbated by higher rates and lower immigration, on top of trade frictions with trump

@VincentDeluard what do you think of MXN instead? or AUD?

[Vincent Deluard @VincentDeluard]

Three Macro Calls that Aged Superbly

1⃣ Treasuries as the New Plagues of Egypt, April 15: 10 Y Yield was at 4.2%
2⃣ How to enjoy the Japanese Miracle, July 15, JPY was at 163
3⃣ The Firestorm Gathering Over the French Bond Market, Aug 12, 10Y OAT was at 3.9%

DM for the reports and sign up for a free trial 👇
https://t.co/VlsIPmOddn

[𝕕𝕒𝕧𝕚𝕕 𝕠𝕓𝕣𝕠𝕟𝕥 @obront]

@calxandr so cryptically vague

[𝕕𝕒𝕧𝕚𝕕 𝕠𝕓𝕣𝕠𝕟𝕥 @obront]

alchemy is coming #gold

[Andrew Côté @Andercot]

For every gigawatt-thermal of fusion reactor capacity burning deuterium-tritium, you can produce 2 tonnes of gold per year by recycling the 14 MeV neutrons through mercury.

The economics of a gold-breeding fusion reactor are about half revenue from gold, and half from electricity at current prices.

The natural evolution of technology is to move beyond "chemistry' and into "alchemy" - nuclear sciences that involve the transmutation of elements, at energy scales and densities a million times higher than usual material science, chemistry, and molecular interaction scales.

The first companies to approach this will be targeting things like medical isotopes and enriched nuclear fuel, but there's really no limit. If you think we can make energy too cheap to meter, then it becomes feasible to transmute elements at industrial quantities as raw material feedstock into the economy.

Your thesis really should be that reality is programmable down to the atomic level, and that is inevitable where our technology will take us.

[𝕕𝕒𝕧𝕚𝕕 𝕠𝕓𝕣𝕠𝕟𝕥 @obront]

@RamboVanHalen @realdavegroom i didn't get why that daughter storyline was included .... just to have a snap of "real world" for the actor or was it saying something about reality?

[𝕕𝕒𝕧𝕚𝕕 𝕠𝕓𝕣𝕠𝕟𝕥 @obront]

@BenRabidoux @liberal_party now here's the adjusted math. basically unchanged population in last year, compared to estimates of significant decline

https://t.co/DO59ri9bp5

[Just Another Pod Guy @TMTLongShort]

I’ve made this point multiple times over the last 18 months but I’ll do it again now.

The game-theory optimal approach for the labs is to use safety as an excuse to not make frontier capabilities widely available and to instead go up the stack with vertical-specific incumbent partners via a whitelist program in return for rev share.

It’s so obvious and it solves multiple problems at once including distillation, enterprise inertia, deflation of TAM and safety concerns.

You co-opt the incumbents brand and distribution. You help them gut their employee base if desired or just keep them on if you don’t want bad PR and let them jump from 10-20% market share to 90%+ as they undercut everyone given better model access.

And every competitor who isn’t whitelisted dies.

Watch what kind of panic this drives.

Game theory 101.

[𝕕𝕒𝕧𝕚𝕕 𝕠𝕓𝕣𝕠𝕟𝕥 @obront]

@Afinetheorem Canadian citizenship applicants surging after ‘Lost Canadians’ law passed, testing Carney government’s immigration control promise
https://t.co/ViX3kve8xd

[𝕕𝕒𝕧𝕚𝕕 𝕠𝕓𝕣𝕠𝕟𝕥 @obront]

@FirstSquawk this is not correct ....

Statistics Canada reported the August unemployment rate unchanged at 6.4%, matching both the prior month and the consensus estimate

Full-time jobs fell 35.9K and part-time 5.8K

[𝕕𝕒𝕧𝕚𝕕 𝕠𝕓𝕣𝕠𝕟𝕥 @obront]

Flying becomes cheaper and cheaper every year, until the air is the cheapest way to move atoms, and the cheapest way to move things is how you reshape the world.
https://t.co/VRFRi05Lfw @Airbound_Aero

- the rooftop becomes the new driveway
- an hour’s radius around city, now mostly open land, will be many times more valuable

[𝕕𝕒𝕧𝕚𝕕 𝕠𝕓𝕣𝕠𝕟𝕥 @obront]

@BenRabidoux @liberal_party Ben i just asked a reasonable question about CIBC's view of the data, and you responded very aggressively calling me dumb?! ugh, you may be spending too much time on X losing humanity

[𝕕𝕒𝕧𝕚𝕕 𝕠𝕓𝕣𝕠𝕟𝕥 @obront]

@DannyDayan5 😲

[𝕕𝕒𝕧𝕚𝕕 𝕠𝕓𝕣𝕠𝕟𝕥 @obront]

@ThematicMarkets choosing of "the Leftist whose coming I prophesized? Or a Nixonian surprise?" .... virtually every country now must decide amongst anti-establishment party along those lines, and yes it's truly pivotal as you say

[𝕕𝕒𝕧𝕚𝕕 𝕠𝕓𝕣𝕠𝕟𝕥 @obront]

#Warsh is a major turning point for #Fed policy

@marvinjbarth @ThematicMarkets
explains it perfectly

https://t.co/BcxormWRPw

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

Canary in the coal mine?

Partners Group $PGHN just gated redemptions on its $8.6 billion evergreen fund.

The Swiss firm – one of Europe's largest alternative asset managers, with $185B AUM across private equity, credit, real estate, infrastructure, and royalties – limited withdrawals from its Global Value SICAV to 5% of NAV per quarter.

The reason: redemption requests surged to 9.8% in Q2. Nearly double the cap.

The stock dropped 13% in Zurich. Biggest intraday loss in six years. Down 27% YTD.

The disturbing detail

The fund already held 15% of NAV in liquidity. Plus an undrawn credit facility worth another 15% of fund size.

30% of NAV available in cash. And they still gated.

Why? Because to honor full redemptions you'd have to dump underlying private assets into a forced timeline. That means fire-sale prices, marking down the entire portfolio, and destroying value for the investors who stayed.

The board chose to protect the long-term holders over the ones at the exit.

This isn't isolated

In recent months, the same playbook has unfolded across the industry:
– Apollo capped redemptions
– KKR capped redemptions
– BlackRock capped redemptions
– Blue Owl capped redemptions

The biggest names in alternatives are all doing the same thing. The anxiety started in private credit and is now spilling into private equity, real estate, and infrastructure.

The retail angle

Partners Group disclosed that private wealth clients – "typically far more skittish than institutional investors" – represent about a fifth of total platform AUM. A particularly large share of Global Value's investor base.

For 15 years, retail was sold the dream: returns of public equity, with the illusion of liquidity, in a vehicle anyone could access. Quarterly redemptions, evergreen structure, no lockups.

Today they learned that quarterly liquidity is not a right.

It's a privilege the manager can revoke when too many people ask at the same time.

The Hotel California problem

The illiquidity premium means exactly what it says. You accept being illiquid in exchange for higher returns. Most of the time nobody notices, because nobody wants out.

When everyone wants out at once, the premium gets paid in real time.

You can check in any time you like.

But you can never leave.

[𝕕𝕒𝕧𝕚𝕕 𝕠𝕓𝕣𝕠𝕟𝕥 @obront]

“Predicting rain doesn’t count. Building arks does.”
– Warren Buffett