Simple & Passionate about life. Loves to learn. Chemical Eng Grad. Austrian Economist. A friend. Book lover. Caring. I can go on & on. Retweets ≠ Endorsements
I am pleased to release the fourth lecture from my We Who Wrestle With God collection. We plan to make this a Sunday ritual, far into the foreseeable future.
Today's topic: How can you become a good person? We're all dreaming up how we should act, and we produce our theories. Our great storytellers aggregate those theories and portray them back to us, in dramatic form.
We imitate the heroes of our stories. Thus we move ever closer to being good. We can do this consciously, too—explicitly—and aim at becoming the heroes of our own personal stories.
Lectured filmed in Abbotsford, Canada on April 1, 2025
Nassim Nicholas Taleb walked into Google and explained what Antifragility is and how the world actually works:
1. The opposite of fragile is not robust. That is the first mistake almost everyone makes. Robust means something does not care about volatility. The true opposite of fragile is something that actually benefits from disorder, volatility, and stress. He calls it antifragile.
2. If you are shipping something fragile you write handle with care on the box. The true opposite of that package would have please mishandle written on it. Something antifragile wants to be mishandled. It gets stronger from it.
3. Fragility is always about nonlinear harm. Jumping ten meters kills you. Jumping ten centimeters a hundred times does not. The harm accelerates disproportionately with size. That acceleration is the mathematical signature of fragility and it can be measured precisely.
4. Anything that has survived long enough to exist today must have this property. If harm were linear you would be destroyed just walking to the office. Everything that persists is built so that small stressors barely touch it but large unexpected shocks destroy it.
5. Large size creates fragility automatically. A hundred million pound project in the UK had thirty percent more cost overruns than a five million pound project doing the same thing. The bigger the stone the more the harm. Size and fragility are inseparable.
6. Governments and institutions make the same mistake constantly. They chase perfect stability and call it good management. But something organic requires variability to survive. Greenspan tried to eliminate all economic volatility. He called it the Great Moderation. What he actually did was allow hidden risk to accumulate invisibly until it exploded all at once.
7. Small forest fires clean out flammable material and prevent catastrophic ones. By eliminating small fires you guarantee a massive one eventually. The same principle applies to economies, banks, and any complex system. Suppressing volatility does not remove risk. It stores it.
8. The only way to make something genuinely robust is to embrace bipolar strategies rather than medium ones. Eighty percent of your portfolio in something safe and twenty percent in something highly speculative is more robust than putting everything in medium risk. The average of extremes beats the mediocre middle.
9. Everything organic communicates with its environment through stressors. Your body needs the gym. Your bones need stress. Your immune system needs exposure. Depriving any living system of the stressors it needs does not protect it. It weakens it invisibly.
10. What does not kill me makes others stronger is closer to the truth than what does not kill me makes me stronger. When a system gets stronger under stress it is usually because the weaker components were destroyed, not because the survivors individually improved. The system improves through the death of its fragile parts.
11. Trial and error is not the opposite of knowledge. It is a form of knowledge with a convex payoff. You lose little when you are wrong and gain enormously when you are right. That asymmetry is what makes tinkering more powerful than theoretical planning in unpredictable environments.
12. Most of what we attribute to theoretical knowledge actually came from tinkering that was dressed up afterward as having been scientifically planned. The Romans built extraordinary things for centuries without ever having heard of Euclidean geometry. Technology routinely precedes the science that supposedly explains it.
13. The fragilista is Taleb's name for the person who denies antifragility and causes damage through that denial. Bureaucrats, central planners, academics, and policy makers who overstabilize systems from the top down are fragilistas. They remove the volatility that systems need and call it improvement.
14. Seneca, the wealthiest man in the ancient world, trained himself every day to wake up as if he had lost everything. He would deliberately live as if he were on a shipwreck to ensure he always had more upside than downside. Having more to gain than to lose from random events is the definition of antifragility in personal life.
15. In medicine, convexity matters more than people realize. If you are very ill the potential benefit of treatment vastly outweighs the risk, so you should see ten doctors not one. If you are mildly ill the risks of intervention almost certainly outweigh the modest benefits. The problem is that mildly ill patients are five times more numerous than severely ill ones, which is exactly who pharmaceutical companies focus on.
16. Removing something unnatural from your life has almost no side effects. Adding something artificial always has multiplicative hidden effects. In complex systems less is almost always more. The via negativa, improving by subtraction rather than addition, is consistently underestimated.
17. The real ethical crisis of modern times is that the people making decisions do not bear the consequences of those decisions. Bankers take the upside. Society takes the downside. Economists give broken advice and face no consequences when it fails. Nothing improves in any field where the people who are wrong are not harmed by being wrong.
18. Time is the ultimate detector of fragility. Whatever is fragile will eventually be broken by time. Whatever has survived for a long time has demonstrated antifragility and will likely survive longer still. A book that has been read for three thousand years will probably be read for three thousand more. A technology that is forty years old has at least forty more years ahead of it.
19. The only way to know you are alive and not a machine is that you benefit from variability. If you like variation and gain from disorder you are antifragile. If you require peace and predictability to function you are fragile. It is as simple and as profound as that.
Before you go, can we stay in touch?
I'd love to share one email with you every Sunday that'll challenge how you think about business, money and freedom.
Stay in touch here:
https://t.co/VMTlilB7aq
To understand money, don't start with speculative stories about ancient kings. Start with what we can document: how gold and silver were suppressed by banks, judges, and legislators—leaving us with nothing but fiat currency and perpetual inflation. https://t.co/4E0fo1Orws
Many economists believe that expanding the money supply helps create and facilitate economic growth. That is not the case. | Frank Shostak
https://t.co/QvAwK0YiPo
When the house of cards collapsed in 2008, Greenspan became a convenient scapegoat. That was useful too. It allowed the establishment to blame one man's mistakes rather than confront the predictable result of decades of escalating inflationism. @ConnorOKeeffe
With its new ruling in Trump v. Cook, the Supreme Court demonstrates it does not understand central banking or the Fed. Clarence Thomas, however, saw through the Fed's lies. | @NewmanJ_R
https://t.co/QTnJLe33CH
The Fed was not a policy response to national need. It was engineered by two groups of elites—government officials and large banking interests—with economists hired to give the scheme a scientific patina. Rothbard names the names. Free audiobook. https://t.co/QnUhe2VWJt
This is not life that we are living.
Chai. My goodness. This is not life at all.
May God in His goodness bring succour and hope to those who are having a really rough time in Nigeria.
This is not life at all.
Young socialists think the system is rigged. They're right. They blame capitalism. They're wrong. They're reacting to a monetary system that funnels new money to the top and passes inflation to the bottom. Fix the money, fix the world. @LawrenceLepard@BobMurphyEcon#HAPod
Looking for a research opportunity in Switzerland?
Applications are now open for the CYD Fellowships 2026. The program offers Master Thesis, Doctoral, and Distinguished Postdoctoral Fellowships in cybersecurity, cyber-defence, artificial intelligence, and data science.
Link: https://t.co/ImHpHs2Y9c
🌍 Open to All Nationalities
🏛️ Hosted by EPFL & CYD Campus
📚 Master Thesis, Doctoral & Postdoctoral Fellowships
Credit: EPFL & CYD Campus
Disclaimer: Scholarships Corner shares opportunities for informational purposes only. Applicants should verify all details, eligibility requirements, funding provisions, and deadlines through the official website before applying.
#ScholarshipsCorner #CYDFellowships #ResearchFellowship #Switzerland #EPFL #CyberSecurity #ResearchOpportunity
Lagos should be thinking Cholera!
If you’re in Lagos you should not eat or drink outside your home for a while!
Make your own food!
Wash your hands regularly.
That flood and rubbish in the flood and the amount of sewage that has been washed around is plenty.
Lagos should be thinking Cholera!
If you’re in Lagos you should not eat or drink outside your home for a while!
Make your own food!
Wash your hands regularly.
That flood and rubbish in the flood and the amount of sewage that has been washed around is plenty.
Clarence Thomas cited Murray Rothbard in a concurrence released 5 days ago and then said “the Framers rejected such a ‘promised land of technocratic governance’” in reference to the Federal Reserve in a dissent released yesterday
Today's flood in Lagos is more than enough to make Nigerians do everything necessary to ensure that Bola Ahmed Tinubu doesn't win the elections in 2027. But what do I know? I am not resilient and patient in long-term suffering. Nigerians are! Even in consistent impoverishment!
Applications are now open for the opportunity to study in Ireland on a fully funded (!!) Master's #scholarship 🎓
🇳🇬 Applicants from #Nigeria can apply for the Roger Casement Fellowship in Human Rights, supporting Master's programmes in Law, Human Rights and Governance.
🇬🇭 Applicants from #Ghana can apply for eligible Master's programmes through the IFP – Africa stream.
Having worked with Irish higher education institutions for many years, I've seen first-hand the impact these opportunities can have —not only academically, but also personally and professionally. Ireland offers a truly welcoming environment, world-class universities, and an experience that stays with you long after graduation.
If you meet the criteria, I would strongly encourage you to apply. It could be the start of something life-changing. All info via https://t.co/Ec3CJmbx0N
Remember when Minister Umahi dismissed journalist Laila Salami’s request for the environmental impact assessment for Coastal highway?
Lagos is a sinking city & weak environmental governance accelerates this reality.
When your government is led by an O-
“My House In Lekki Has Been Flooded. Inside The House Covered With Water. This Is a Property Worth Hundreds Of Millions. Can You Imagine That The Water Is Coming From Beneath The Ground, And The Entire Estate Is Covered By Floodwater.” ~ Man Cries Out🙆🏾♂️