@uk_islamophobia Btw victims of grooming are often family members or the children of the perpetratorโs acquaintances. Consequently, it is logical to expect that a significant number of the victims of potential grooming rings of Pakistani origin would themselves be children of Pakistani descent.
#Russian info-ops and economic leverage also left a mark. Street polls show older voters skew pro-Russian (and pro-war), fearing #Pashinyanโs shift from Moscow will trigger spikes in gas prices and harm Armenian business interests in Russia.
3/3
๐ฆ๐ฒ #Pashinyanโs current result (~49.81%) is roughly 4% lower than in the risky 2021 election. Back then, the opposition gathered only 26.27%. Now, the revanchist oligarchic bloc enters parliament with a combined share of 37.23%.
1/3
This stems from Pashinyanโs actions over the last two years: finalizing the #Karabakh issue, clashing with the Armenian Church, and breaking nationalist taboos with blunt statements. The opposition aggressively exploited these polarizing moves.
2/3
Tsarukyanโs Prosperous #Armenia is on the edge (latest: 3.98%). Its failure benefits #Pashinyan. However, even with redistributed votes, Civil Contract will likely fall 4-6 seats short of the 2/3 threshold needed to single-handedly pass referendums.
3/3
Thread: ๐ฆ๐ฒ Although #Pashinyanโs Civil Contract wins the #election and he will remain PM, a key nuance remains. To launch a referendum on changing the Constitution, Pashinyan needs a 2/3 majority in parliament (approx. 68 seats).
This constitutional change is crucial for a peace deal with #Azerbaijan, as Baku & Ankara demand removing indirect territorial claims from #Armenia's basic law. Due to the 4% threshold, votes of failing parties will be redistributed among the winners.
2/3
๐ฆ๐ฒ Based on the updating of results from new polling stations, Infocom provides the following updated data of the preliminary count:
โข Civil Contract (#Pashinyan) - 56.4%
โข "Strong #Armenia" (#Karapetyan) - 26.0%
โข "Armenia" Bloc (#Kocharyan) - 11.0%
๐ฆ๐ฒ According to Infocom reports, the preliminary voting results in #Armenia at the moment are as follows:
โข Civil Contract (#Pashinyan) โ 70.4%
โข Strong Armenia (#Karapetyan) โ 17.1%
โข Armenia Bloc (#Kocharian + Dashnaks) โ 6.8%
โข Prosperous Armenia (Tsaruqyan) โ 3.5%
@Vertaris21@GoldenTent This looks more like a mining facility, they are carving out roads on the mountain, it's pretty obvious. The approximate coordinates from where the video was made: 38.9017235, 46.5857991
@Vertaris21@GoldenTent lmao dude thinks heโs genius OSINTโer but there is video from this area a year ago (Bartaz village) - operator says there is Zangezur highway building on the right side and factory in Bartaz on the left (approximately the area you mention)
๐ฆ๐ฒ Tomorrow, #Armenia votes on its future: war or peace. Can a leader survive after dismantling his nationโs foundational myths and recognizing a rival's territory? How #Pashinyan is defying the odds and breaking regional taboos.
Full analysis ๐
https://t.co/GwxkVX7Fzg