Episode 9 of the Whiteboard series is live!
This episode dives into the Fibonacci retracement tool and demystifies the Optimal Trade Entry or OTE setup.
Done properly your fibs will line up with your OBs and FVGs from prior episodes giving you additional confluence for your entries.
https://t.co/cKGIG5rzxx
$BTC
The funniest part is how this plays out the same every single time, yet people still say "this time is different."
Friendly reminder for those who don’t understand how the news algo works:
Good news in an uptrend > either continuation or a local top, depending on price action, extension, re-accumulation, etc.
Good news in a downtrend > temporary boost to give market participants optimism before price starts dumping again.
Bad news in a bear market > usually leads to extended downside.
Bad news in a bull market > mostly just FUD, and price pushes higher anyway.
It’s all an algo. Study it. Learn from it. This is how they trap the herd.
Mayne Talks About Why Smart Traders Focus on Risk-Reward, Not Win Rate.
"As a trader, your job is to find asymmetric bets. We’re looking for asymmetric opportunities across a variety of different markets where we can define our risk and where we believe our potential reward outweighs that risk asymmetrically."
"When I say asymmetric, I mean getting at least 2-to-1 to 3-to-1 on your ideas and bets. This asymmetry is important because with a 2-to-1 reward-to-risk ratio you only need a 33% win rate to break even, and with a 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio you only need a 25% win rate to break even."
"Stacking the math in your favor lets you take shots and not worry about being wrong, because the trades you get right will outweigh the losers."
Everyone abandoned the M2 chart because they never truly understood what it was showing in the first place.
$BTC has consistently topped before M2 peaks.
However, once M2 does top out, it has historically led to extended downside for BTC. That pattern has repeated since 2012.
The sequence has generally been:
BTC tops > M2 keeps rising > BTC ranges until M2 peaks > M2 peaks = prolonged BTC downside.
This cycle has played out again and again.
M2 still hasn’t topped yet, and when it finally does, do you really think it’s suddenly going to decouple from the way markets have always moved?
No.
I’ll see you in about 1–2 weeks... $BTC
Make sure to keep buying directly into external supply around mid-month, after the 14th.
Alot of people are going to learn very valuable lessons, quickly.
Simple stupid technical lens for when to start putting bull goggles on is when SPY is -10% below its 200d MA
Not saying we have to head there, but if we do, asymmetry is unlikely to the downside
Currently sits in and around the highs set in Feb'25
$BTC bottoms don’t form through clean HLs.
They’re deliberately messy, involving multiple sweeps.
Tops show similar behavior.
Diagonal bottoms rarely play out.
Structurally, it makes more sense to expect a retrace below 70K to sweep untested lows before a true bottom is established.