Mandelbrot

[Mandelbrot @Wild_Randomness]

@0xbigmikey It’s working

[Mandelbrot @Wild_Randomness]

Saylor,

Thank you for heeding my advice.

Although I imagined that you would have sold a little more than 32 BTC to get this type of response.

- Mandel

[Mandelbrot @Wild_Randomness]

Saylor,

If you sell bitcoin today you can buy back 1.7 times as much bitcoin in June.

Yours Truly,
Mandel

[Mandelbrot @Wild_Randomness]

@lBattleRhino oh

[Mandelbrot @Wild_Randomness]

Used MAGS (-20%) as part of my rationale for covering shorts and flipping long at the bottom…

Should I be looking at this again?

Breaking back below ATHs and losing daily trend for the first time since the bottom.

Haven’t tried shorted any mega cap indices with SPCX coming.

[Mandelbrot @Wild_Randomness]

$SPX $SPY

Trying to put out my index thoughts on a weekly basis…

Quick update (not meant to be hindsight, I have tweets for all this in real-time):

- Great week of trading…

-Sold out of most shorts on last Friday into this Monday, and played turnaround Tuesday upside to a T.

- Price drifted higher into mid-day Wednesday then got short again based off optimism heading into a conference with a limited right-tail.

- P/C rammed higher into close on Wednesday, and I was open to the idea to a higher low similar to liberation day (see pics) so I monetized a lot of my downside exposure at the open. Also put back on some additional spot equity longs in my long only account (GLW/BESI/AIXA, more GEV, ARE, CCJ) … (MAGS down 20%, positioning and sentiment down meaningfully, etc.). Ended up being another decent day…

- At the close I decided to keep the long entries, but put back on some shorter term puts (2-4 weeks) / inverse plays given the charts were all up against trend. Also still overweight cash, but I’m cognizant of there being a wall of worry present that could sustain a spring rally. So I won’t be fading anything if we see early week strength, and I’ll likely be a buyer of a boots on the ground gap down.

Current positioning: (still) overweight cash (usd), but this week I got spot-long secular winners with room to add (fuck the macro type names), also still tactically trading the charts and just being as objective as I can be— hence some re-shorting into the close.

[Mandelbrot @Wild_Randomness]

@lowkeytomm no, I should sleep more

[Mandelbrot @Wild_Randomness]

Logical spot for it

All eyes on hourly trend from here

[Mandelbrot @Wild_Randomness]

Surely this will be a local low for a bit

[Mandelbrot @Wild_Randomness]

& notice I am not citing anything to do with macro/equities, usually a good sign

There are just simply fundamental issues in house that need to be dealt with

[Mandelbrot @Wild_Randomness]

But still— don’t lose sight of the task at hand

Fair amount of liquidation came in, short covering, etc.

Big lean is this textbook reversion. I don’t think we have solved any of the underlying issues.

COT, quantum, bitfinex twap, strc issues, stablecoins contracting, etc.

[Mandelbrot @Wild_Randomness]

@chrisgrx_ Yep— don’t think this is what people had in mind when they were buying alts, front-running the btc (local) bottom

[Mandelbrot @Wild_Randomness]

@SQUABABA Yeah I’m trying to set up a gold position here

[Mandelbrot @Wild_Randomness]

@dvalouev Yeah I think it will, high 65s forsure by NYO

[Mandelbrot @Wild_Randomness]

@0xbigmikey If I had to guess, BTC.D goes up for a bit here / others.d down

[Mandelbrot @Wild_Randomness]

@0xbigmikey Me neither

Guess we’ll just see how eager people are to bid alts vs support btc

Still feel like the whole alts up irregardless of BTC action meta has gotten very long in the tooth

(Yes I understand we’re all bidding up ~5% of the entire crypto market cap)

[Mandelbrot @Wild_Randomness]

@cactusDAT I think we will chop over like 4 months and end up at marginally lower prices

But this is the last leg to bother shorting (provided we bottom where I expect… if we bounce now and grind up for a bit there is still a short trade out there)

[Mandelbrot @Wild_Randomness]

This market is still disgustingly inefficient

[Mandelbrot @Wild_Randomness]

Meanwhile….

[Mandelbrot @Wild_Randomness]

Awoken

[Mandelbrot @Wild_Randomness]

Waking up…

[Mandelbrot @Wild_Randomness]

@ZeMirch Just more leverage?

ah

[Mandelbrot @Wild_Randomness]

@ZeMirch Similar thinking…

Everyone allocated / leveraging up on the 7 good alts for the inevitable btc bottom…

But who’s going to buy when btc does actually bottom?