On account of BYU being invited to the almighty @PopTartsBowl, I have customarily changed my name and likeness to the GOAT (Greatest of all Tarts). May they be so lucky to be chosen as this year’s noble sacrifice. @BYUfootball#BYUvsGT
Looking back at the LAST 30 YEARS, no 1-loss P4/P5 team has ever been ranked as low as BYU at #11 in the AP poll at the end of the regular season
All other year's lowest-ranked 1-loss teams ended with an AP ranking between #3-10, & there's a strong correlation between better AP ranking and better SOS... except for BYU, who showed better than average figures for all schedule strength data points, yet somehow received the lowest ranking on record
I utilized the weekly poll data from the College Poll Archive site and used the Colley Matrix for SOS data since it's the only one I could find with historical weekly data
I stopped the search at 1996 due to the data getting irregular with many "ties" in the records prior to that year and the confusion between the pre-Big12 conferences
Links in replies
Let's do some comparisons because as a college football fan I'm annoyed at the crime taking place...
2024 Indiana vs 2025 BYU
2024 Indiana
• SOR: 8
• FPI: 10
• SOS: 35
• Game Control: 6
• AVGWP: 6
^*Boosted numbers after playoff game*
Schedule
vs 4-8 FIU (W 31-7)
vs FCS Western Illinois (W 77-3)
@ 5-7 UCLA (W 42-13)
vs 5-7 Charlotte (W 52-14)
vs 4-8 Maryland (W 42-28)
@ 4-8 Northwestern (W 41-24)
vs 6-6 Nebraska (W 56-7)
vs 6-6 Washington (W 31-17)
@ 5-7 Michigan State (W 47-10)
vs 7-5 Michigan (W 20-15)
@ 10-2 Ohio State (L 38-15)
vs 1-11 Purdue (W 66-0)
•Cumulative FBS Opponent W/L: 57-75
•Cumulative FBS Opponent Win %: 43.18%
• Final Record before postseason: 11-1
• Number of bowl eligible teams defeated: 3
• Best Win: 7-5 Michigan
• Number of wins vs ranked teams in final poll before postseason: 0
• Did not qualify for Conference Championship Game
They were always safely in the playoff. Never in doubt. Never questioned.
2025 BYU
• SOR: 6
• FPI: 15
• SOS: 35
• Game Control: 14
• AVGWP: 24
^ *most current numbers*
Schedule
vs FCS Portland State (W 69-0)
vs 4-8 Stanford (W 27-3)
@ 8-4 East Carolina (W 34-13)
@ 3-9 Colorado (W 24-21)
vs 4-8 West Virginia (W 38-24)
@ 9-3 Arizona (W 33-27)
vs 10-2 Utah (W 24-21)
@ 8-4 Iowa State (W 41-27)
@ 11-1 Texas Tech (L 29-7)
vs 8-4 TCU (W 44-13)
@ 7-5 Cincinnati (W 26-14)
vs 5-7 UCF (W 41-21)
• Cumulative FBS Opponent W/L: 77-55
• Cumulative FBS Opponent Win %: 58.33%
• Final Record before postseason: 11-1
• Number of bowl eligible teams defeated: 6
• Best Win: 10-2 Utah
• Number of wins vs ranked teams in final poll before postseason: 2 (for sure)
• Qualified for Conference Championship Game
And the committee is saying they have to win out.
Oh but I'm not done. Let's explore that "they have to win out" idea from the committee.... and for the "Why doesn't BYU just beat Texas Tech in the conference championship" crowd...
Let's compare 2025 BYU to another team who went 11-1, lost their conference championship game, and still got in to the CFP... 2024 SMU
2024 SMU
• SOR: 18
• FPI: 13
• SOS: 41
• Game Control: 18
• AVGWP: 16
^ *Boosted numbers after CCG and playoff*
Schedule
@ 3-9 Nevada (W 29-24)
vs FCS Houston Baptist (W 59-7)
vs 10-2 BYU (L 18-16)
vs 8-4 TCU (W 66-42)
vs 2-10 Florida State (W 42-16)
@ 8-4 Louisville (W 34-27)
@ 3-9 Stanford (W 40-10)
@ 9-3 Duke (W 28-27)
vs 7-5 Pitt (W 48-25)
vs 7-5 Boston College (W 38-28)
@ 5-7 Virginia (W 33-7)
vs 6-6 Cal (W 38-6)
• Cumulative FBS Opponent W/L: 68-64
• Cumulative FBS Opponent Win %: 51.52%
• Final Record before postseason: 11-1
• Number of bowl eligible teams defeated: 6
• Best Win: 9-3 Duke
• Number of wins vs ranked teams in final poll before postseason: 0
• Qualified for conference championship game
SMU got in to the CFP even after losing the conference championship game to a 9-3 Clemson.
Now... It is quite clear that 2025 BYU has a better resume than both of these teams.
Why does that matter?
Well it's a little thing called precedent. The CFP Committee has set precedents over time. Not mine. THEIR OWN. Here they are...
• Since the inception of the CFP in 2014, NO 11-1 P4 team has been ranked outside of the top 10 in the final regular season rankings
• 2024 Indiana set the precedent that if you're 11-1 in a P4... You're in, under any circumstance. Because their resume was boo boo.
• 2024 SMU set the precedent that if you're 11-1 in a P4 and you lose your conference championship game.. you're still in.
So, in closing... Yes, BYU should be in the CFP. Regardless of the Big 12 championship game result. I rest my case. Good luck to the defense counsel, you're cooked.