Nikolai Holmov

Content in obscurity & cosseted by mild eccentricity. Objectivity is giving all a fair hearing. It does not equate to false moral equivalence. RT ≠ endorsement

[Nikolai Holmov @OdessaBlogger]

@PopovaProf I fear it has far more to do with an embattled Starmer wanting to be seen to have the armed forces be actively "able" given his latest crisis (MoD) than it has with enforcing a 6 month old policy for the 1st time relating to the shadow fleet. It's about what's in it for Starmer.

[Nikolai Holmov @OdessaBlogger]

@PhilipIngMBE @haynesdeborah It is all about form rather than substance when it comes to the shadow fleet. Starmer wants to be seen to be doing something when in fact he has done very little with regard to the shadow fleet thus far. What's in it for Starmer is the first question to be asked.

[Nikolai Holmov @OdessaBlogger]

@John_ForemanCBE It will take more than one swallow to convince any voter that summer has arrived when it comes to delivering on the shadow fleet

[Nikolai Holmov @OdessaBlogger]

@samagreene The last thing needed is a European version of Colby

[Nikolai Holmov @OdessaBlogger]

@PopovaProf As is well known, in Russia power gets you money, but money doesn't get you power.

[Nikolai Holmov @OdessaBlogger]

@militaryhistori It's turning into a position that seems very similar to the "emergency 18 month deployments" back in the day

[Nikolai Holmov @OdessaBlogger]

I didn't realise that this was an 18 month rotational tour of duty appointment, just as so many "emergency tours" used to be back in the day. I guess I was wrong. He'll be gone (like the rest) in 18 months just like his predecessor.

[UK Prime Minister @10DowningStreet]

Dan Jarvis MBE MP @DanJarvisMBE has been appointed as Secretary of State for Defence @DefenceHQ.

[Nikolai Holmov @OdessaBlogger]

@MarkGaleotti @MrKevinRothrock Agreed. Any notion of being arbitor/mediator will be thoroughly dismissed by The Kremlin and the issue of negotiation will have to be forced upon it, which I can't see happening this year, if not being over much further over the horizon realistically.

[Nikolai Holmov @OdessaBlogger]

@MarkGaleotti @MrKevinRothrock There is a world of difference between mediator and negotiator as and when the time comes

[Nikolai Holmov @OdessaBlogger]

@John_ForemanCBE It's time like that when the enlisted man remembers he salutes the rank, not the person with the rank.

[Nikolai Holmov @OdessaBlogger]

@PhilipIngMBE @LukePollard I think the plan is to go to war armed with KFS and mess tins

[Nikolai Holmov @OdessaBlogger]

@irgarner @PerellClips The best academics have always been those who can take extremely complex issues and express them in a way that everyone can understand. They are the ones that are remembered.

[Nikolai Holmov @OdessaBlogger]

"Joined-up" government. Now there's a novel concept

[Foreign Affairs Committee @CommonsForeign]

Disinformation has the power to seriously harm our democracy. The government has said it wants to combat disinformation, and is taking steps to do so. But the we think it should be going further and doing more 🧵

[Nikolai Holmov @OdessaBlogger]

@John_ForemanCBE @PopovaProf Fortunately I was "schooled" by James Sherr and @SlawomirDebski et al., so I was never overly influenced by him unlike many.

[Nikolai Holmov @OdessaBlogger]

@John_ForemanCBE @PopovaProf He had to reinvent himself as an "uber-hawk" to remain "relevant" after years in the wilderness John.

[Nikolai Holmov @OdessaBlogger]

@militaryhistori @HumanOpinion @BBCBreaking @nytimes @MSNOWNews @NBCNews @ABC @FareedZakaria @grahamformaine @RealAlexJones As is to be expected from him to be blunt.

[Nikolai Holmov @OdessaBlogger]

@John_ForemanCBE As if anybody would expect anything else at such a forum.

[Sławomir Dębski @SlawomirDebski]

Not necessarily.

Poland’s presence at this table would lend political legitimacy to negotiations with Russia at a moment when Russia itself is facing growing difficulties. There is no reason to help Moscow escape the consequences of its own strategic choices.

There was a time when some suggested that Poland should join the Nord Stream project. Fortunately, those ideas were rejected. In retrospect, it proved easier to justify those who blew the pipeline up than those who wanted Poland to participate in it. Being “at the table” is not a virtue in itself.

The same applies here. So far, the fact that Witkoff keeps travelling to Moscow has produced precisely nothing of strategic significance. Apart from consuming time. And at the moment, time is not playing against Ukraine - it is increasingly playing against Russia.

So let him travel.

[Sławomir Dębski @SlawomirDebski]

For several weeks now, this group has been quietly sounding out Poland through diplomatic channels, essentially asking: “What would it take for Poland to join this format?”

Warsaw’s answer has been polite but sceptical. The Polish government believes this initiative is unlikely to succeed because, in reality, it is not primarily about either Ukraine or Russia.

For Berlin, it is an attempt to claim European leadership. For Macron, it is a struggle for political legacy. For Starmer, it is a desperate search for any major foreign-policy success - perhaps his last. In two weeks’ time, he may well be fighting for his political survival at home.

Poland will not participate in political theatre for its own sake. It will watch, assess and review the results.

The problem is not a lack of formats. The problem is that neither Ukraine nor Russia is waiting for another European format.

[Łukasz Adamski @LukaszAdamskiPL]

Kolejny raz jestem w Kijowie i kolejny raz przeżywam zmasowany atak na miasto różnych pocisków balistycznych, dronów i czego to jeszcze nie ma Władimir P. w swoim arsenale, oddając się przy tym - kolejny raz - refleksjom z dziedziny psychologii, zwłaszcza społecznej.
A podpowiadają mi owe refleksje jedno - skoro moja własna epistemologiczna perspektywa różni się w zależności od tego, czy jestem w bezpiecznej, zamożnej Warszawie, czy w ostrzeliwanym i znacznie biedniejszym Kijowie, tym bardziej różnić się będzie perspektywa większości moich rodaków oraz większości Ukraińców. Cum omnibus consequentiis.
PS godziną 3:22. Kolejne rakiety nadlatują.