ODFinance

Somewhere between stocks, crypto, and OTM options contracts

[The Crown Macro Letter @thecrownmacro]

Anthropic's CEO just said an AI agent swarm could be capable of taking over the entire internet with a persistent botnet within 6 to 12 months

His response is for the industry to slow down. Three steps, starting with permanent third-party evaluators embedded inside the labs

With Anthropic planning to IPO in the next few months, this can cause a lot of uncertainty with investors.

[The Crown Macro Letter @thecrownmacro]

For nearly 20 years, investors borrowed cheap yen and invested in higher-yielding US assets. As a result, USD/JPY closely tracked the gap between US and Japanese 10-year bond yields, moving almost in lockstep from 2021 through 2024.

That changed after April 2025's "Liberation Day." Since then, the US-Japan 10-year yield spread has narrowed from roughly 3.0% to 1.9%, yet USD/JPY has climbed from around 140 to 164. The dollar strengthened even as America's interest-rate advantage shrank, a clear break from the historical pattern.

The reason is that volatility disrupted the carry trade. A strategy built on collecting small yield differences becomes far less attractive when sharp currency swings can erase months of returns.

Why this matters to you has nothing to do with the yen. Japanese investors have been the quiet, reliable buyer of American debt for twenty years because home paid them nothing. Home now pays 2.82%. They sold $29.6 billion of US Treasuries in the first quarter alone, and the 30-year just touched 5.27%, a 20-year high. Those two facts work together, and the second one prices your mortgage.For nearly 20 years, investors borrowed cheap yen and invested in higher-yielding US assets. As a result, USD/JPY closely tracked the gap between US and Japanese 10-year bond yields, moving almost in lockstep from 2021 through 2024.

That changed after April 2025's "Liberation Day." Since then, the US-Japan 10-year yield spread has narrowed from roughly 3.0% to 1.9%, yet USD/JPY has climbed from around 140 to 164. The dollar strengthened even as America's interest-rate advantage shrank, a clear break from the historical pattern.

The reason is that volatility disrupted the carry trade. A strategy built on collecting small yield differences becomes far less attractive when sharp currency swings can erase months of returns.

Why this matters to you has nothing to do with the yen. Japanese investors have been the quiet, reliable buyer of American debt for twenty years because home paid them nothing. Home now pays 2.82%. They sold $29.6 billion of US Treasuries in the first quarter alone, and the 30-year just touched 5.27%, a 20-year high. Those two facts work together, and the second one prices your mortgage.

[The Crown Macro Letter @thecrownmacro]

$SPY and $SPX Put-Call Skew has hit one of the lowest levels in the past 10 years.

This means investors are paying extra to be exposed to upside, and not covering their downside.

[ODFinance @ODFinance_]

$HOOD Straight value right there ❤️

[ODFinance @ODFinance_]

@AlexOnStocks Take me back to the dorm trading days

[ODFinance @ODFinance_]

@TrendSpider @rockregan Been on $TGT for a while now, happy to see it’s finally playing out.

[ODFinance @ODFinance_]

@DeItaone The will use nuclear reactors to power AI data centers, $SMR is a great play for this hypothesis and is a steal at this price.

[ODFinance @ODFinance_]

$HOOD theory about a decrease in crypto revenue is an over feared play. Robinhood has positioned itself to be the best brokerage for 18-30 year olds, and in the next 5-10 years when wealth begins to transfer we will see it reach bank like status.

[ODFinance @ODFinance_]

@jonbrooks This wealth will transfer to $HOOD and it’s a great discount buy rn too

[ODFinance @ODFinance_]

$RR up a calm 38% today. Infusing robotics and AI is the next big step, this company only has a market cap of around $1 Billion after this move.

$5 Billion market cap will come soon.

[ODFinance @ODFinance_]

@market_investor March expiration far otm

[ODFinance @ODFinance_]

$SLV is up 13% today, and I woke up thinking my put contracts would crater.

To my surprise, I’m actually up on the day because of the IV spike, never have seen anything like this.

[ODFinance @ODFinance_]

@Mr_Derivatives Seems too overcrowded of a trade, I’m team B.

[ODFinance @ODFinance_]

$SMR- great nuclear energy name that hasn’t gotten much recognition recently. Could see this making a big run in 2026

[ODFinance @ODFinance_]

@unusual_whales I’ve always told myself when I see the headline “Trump for Noble Peace Prize” that’s the top signal. Not in a political way but that’s the peak of euphoria, time to sell soon.

[ODFinance @ODFinance_]

@IncomeSharks Was hoping somebody else out there was looking to buy $ORCL at these levels

[ODFinance @ODFinance_]

@IncomeSharks $ACHR is a great company to look at for a play like this

[ODFinance @ODFinance_]

A stock in buying heavy right now is $ACHR. I usually look solely at a chart when determining a position but this is a company that I like for their fundamentals.

This year they will start turning revenue and already have military contracts. Buying $JOBY too!

[ODFinance @ODFinance_]

The average return an investor sees from the $SPY is 10% a year.

That means I could sell all my assets right now and outperform 90% of the market without taking on any more risk for the year.

What do you guys think?

[ODFinance @ODFinance_]

$SLV shorts couldn’t be playing out much better. Taking some profit here but looking for a continuation on the pattern. $Silver

[ODFinance @ODFinance_]

$SLV similarities between 2011 and now, going to open some shorts tomorrow and see if euphoria dies the same way.