The Crown Macro Letter

Macro edge every damn day. Not investment advice.
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[The Crown Macro Letter @thecrownmacro]

Here is how The Crown Macro Letter outperformed in the first three quarters of 2026:

The cumulative return from our published trades was 65.3%, while the S&P 500 returned 13.29% over the same period.

Read the full report here: https://t.co/OIYeDcXBk1

[The Crown Macro Letter @thecrownmacro]

Credit stress isn't isolated to companies like $CRWV and $ORCL, it is now spreading to other parts of the market

Credit spreads are widening on the highest rated names in tech, such as $NVDA and $AVGO.

[The Crown Macro Letter @thecrownmacro]

BREAKING: WTI crude surges above $101 as news of a US strike on Iran's Konarak Naval Base comes in.

Crude is now up 2.8% from today's low.

[The Crown Macro Letter @thecrownmacro]

Put option volume is sky rocketing.

S&P 500 put notional value hit a record $3.37 trillion on Friday, roughly 4x higher than the 2024 average.

Before 2020, daily volume ran between $100 billion and $500 billion. Then COVID hit, 0DTE trading exploded, and volume went parabolic. It has increased year over year since.

[The Crown Macro Letter @thecrownmacro]

BREAKING: Reuters reports that the US auto loan market, valued at roughly $1.7 trillion is under extreme pressure

The cracks are already visible: About 1 in 5 Americans have fallen behind on at least one loan, the highest share since 2010. Meanwhile, the average vehicle on US roads is close to 13 years old, an all-time high.

Car loans have become one of the largest pieces of household debt in America, now outpacing credit cards. This makes car loans one of the most important data pieces to understanding economic stress.

[The Crown Macro Letter @thecrownmacro]

Iran’s foreign minister says the Strait could be reopened within six days if the US agrees to Tehran’s conditions, with negotiations set to resume on the seventh day

The offer gives markets a potential timeline for easing oil disruption, but it all hinges on whether the US is willing to accept terms which haven't been announced publicly yet.

[The Crown Macro Letter @thecrownmacro]

US housing prices are now at their largest deviation from household income, making houses the most unaffordable they have been in history.

[The Crown Macro Letter @thecrownmacro]

AI linked borrowing has been cut in half over the past month, and showing signs of slowing down. In June, $115 Billion in AI related debt was issued, that number now sits at $22 Billion as of September

With AI debt issuance slowing down, that should take pressure off the long end of the curve, bringing 10-Year and 30-Year yields down

[The Crown Macro Letter @thecrownmacro]

Bank stocks have fallen for the past 6 weeks, making this the longest losing streak since 2008.

[The Crown Macro Letter @thecrownmacro]

$VIX just broke.

Volatility ripped 41% in just 2 hours today, moves like these are extremely rare and will add more turbulence to markets next week.

[The Crown Macro Letter @thecrownmacro]

Oil prices are surging as Iran-US tensions escalate

This is the highest price of WTI since September 21

[The Crown Macro Letter @thecrownmacro]

BREAKING: It is being reported that the VARA AI fund is collapsing from large drawdowns in positions

The firm invests heavily in AI infrastructure, including data centers, power generation, and neo-cloud/semiconductor stocks

In the past 8 sessions this is how their largest holdings performed:

$NBIS -31%
$BE -23%
$LITE -26%

[The Crown Macro Letter @thecrownmacro]

$QQQ is on track for its worse weekly close since early July

QQQ has fallen 3.9% this week

[The Crown Macro Letter @thecrownmacro]

$SOXX falls 13% in 8 trading sessions, marking the longest losing streak in over 13 years

[The Crown Macro Letter @thecrownmacro]

Elon Musk unveils new flying roadster demo for $TSLA, with production to start in 2028.

[The Crown Macro Letter @thecrownmacro]

Chip stocks have fallen 6 days in a row, making this the longest losing streak in nearly a year.

[The Crown Macro Letter @thecrownmacro]

US 10-Year yields moved lower off a hot inflation print, which should be bringing yields higher

This is leaving many people confused, but we believe it can be chalked up to fear of an economic and AI sector slowdown which is overpowering inflation concerns.

[The Crown Macro Letter @thecrownmacro]

PPI numbers coming in extremly hot:

PPI 1.3% MoM, Expected 0.6%
PPI 6.3% YoY, Expected 5.4%
PPI Core 0.7% MoM, Expected 0.3%
PPI Core 5.0% YoY, Expected 4.4%

[The Crown Macro Letter @thecrownmacro]

US 2-year bonds initially ripped on CPI numbers, then did a complete 180 and came back down to 4.8%

[The Crown Macro Letter @thecrownmacro]

Bank of America, $BAC, falls over 6% today on bad earnings

It had its worse misses in FICC trading and Equity underwriting