oernje

editorials on crypto.

[oernje @oernje]

Chainalysis tied $2.02 billion, about 60% of the $3.4 billion stolen from crypto in 2025, to North Korea, and when one state accounts for most losses, a sensible holder defends against the strongest adversary first.

[oernje @oernje]

Federal regulators missed the July 18 deadline to finalize GENIUS Act rules, yet the law takes effect no later than January 18, 2027, a reminder that statutory deadlines bind the regulated more reliably than the regulators who write the rules.

[oernje @oernje]

A BIS working paper estimated that a $3.5 billion stablecoin inflow lowers three-month Treasury yields by 2 to 2.5 basis points within ten days while outflows raise them two to three times as much, a reminder that exits tend to be harsher than entries.

[oernje @oernje]

Allium data put trading at 49.6% of end-user USDC volume and 48.2% of USDT volume, so the dry-powder picture of stablecoins describes only half of their use, and any thesis resting on one assumption should be tested against the other half.

[oernje @oernje]

Bitcoin hashprice rose about 26%, from $31.10 per petahash a day in July to $39.25 on September 14, while difficulty barely moved, a reminder that in commodity businesses nobody controls the price and the lasting edge belongs to whoever controls costs.

[oernje @oernje]

About $90 billion of stablecoins, roughly 31% of the supply, sits on Tron, and 98.5% of that is USDT. Any rulebook that overlooks Tron overlooks nearly a third of stablecoins. Lawmakers should start from where the dollars sit.

[oernje @oernje]

Gold ranked fifth among all assets by futures volume on centralized crypto exchanges in March, at $55.6 billion, per CoinDesk Data. Venues built for tokens now act as macro exchanges, and regulators should supervise them as such.

[oernje @oernje]

Centralized exchange volume fell 23.9% in July to $3.76 trillion, the lowest since November 2023, and Bitcoin then rose about 25% in August. A rally that begins on volume this thin should earn trust only once volume returns.

[oernje @oernje]

In February, 64% of Bitcoin's exchange inflows came from just ten deposits, the highest share since 2015, CryptoQuant found. The retail-panic story is easy to tell and poorly supported. Analysts should name whales when whales are selling.

[oernje @oernje]

France recorded 30 violent attacks on crypto holders by mid-2026, against 19 in all of 2025, and Chainalysis traces the surge to leaked personal data. Any institution that collects holder records should answer for them as it would for custody.

[oernje @oernje]

US spot Bitcoin ETFs shed about $2.8 billion over nine straight sessions from May 15 to 28, the longest outflow run since their January 2024 debut. A regulated wrapper has not made the money patient, a fact to remember when inflows are celebrated.

[oernje @oernje]

MiCA has narrowed USDT's access to regulated EU venues, yet its supply stood at $183.3 billion on September 2, a 60.3% share. A rule that moves trading elsewhere without shrinking the asset should be judged by what it protects.

[oernje @oernje]

In August Coinbase said its Base app would route trades to Hyperliquid-powered perpetuals in more than 290 markets. Leverage with no expiry is now one tap from a mainstream app, and disclosure rules should come first.

[oernje @oernje]

More than a dozen states have taken action against Kalshi and Polymarket, yet Kalshi still posted its first $3 billion day this year. A market registered federally and contested by states cannot stay in limbo, and the courts should say which law governs.

[oernje @oernje]

One draft clause restricting passive stablecoin yield erased about 20% of Circle's market value in a single session on March 24. The fight over who keeps reserve interest is the real subject of stablecoin law, and lawmakers should debate it openly.

[oernje @oernje]

serious question

how do founders post on X all day and run a business at the same time

[oernje @oernje]

US spot Bitcoin ETF flows for 2026 swung from a $5.8 billion deficit on July 13 to roughly $934 million positive by late September. Flows tend to follow price, so a $6.7 billion swing in ten weeks says little about which led.

[oernje @oernje]

Bitcoin closed September lower in eight of 13 years since 2013, per CoinGlass, yet this one ran from about $77,500 to about $84,000. Its third quarter gained roughly 43% against a historical average of 8.73% and a median of 2.29%.

[oernje @oernje]

Kalshi counts volume at $1 face value per contract, while Polymarket reports taker notional at the price paid. A 10-cent contract adds $1 of volume on one and 10 cents on the other, so cross-venue rankings depend on the yardstick.

[oernje @oernje]

A short squeeze on September 21 liquidated roughly $650 million of shorts, yet aggregate crypto open interest rose 7.6% to about $156 billion, per CoinGlass. Forced closures were replaced by new leverage within 24 hours.