AltValue

Investor honing in on CEFs, REITs, MLPs, BDCs, value stocks, and market insights. Dedicated to secure dividend strategies in uncertain landscapes.|NOT ADVICE|

[AltValue @OfcMarshmallow]

@KobeissiLetter My take on the private credit market.

•The Kobeissi Letter frames “widening cracks” in private credit as systemic risk. But the data points cited look cyclical, not structural.

•The report cites the BDC Index's 25% decline, Blue Owl's OBDC II adjustments, and isolated bankruptcies. However, it misinterprets cyclical interest rate dynamics as systemic risks.

[AltValue @OfcMarshmallow]

@BullTheoryio To be fair Burry is a perma bear. He's wrong much more than he's right.

That being said even great investors can be great and be wrong often.

[AltValue @OfcMarshmallow]

@ZenoReport @QualCompounders @Support @Safety @LeifInvests @Acevent95706230 @BlackMambaMilli I recall some one who claimed to know him said he was using a new identity when he first vanished.

They didn't want to give a name though.

[AltValue @OfcMarshmallow]

@QualCompounders @ZenoReport @Support @Safety @LeifInvests @Acevent95706230 @BlackMambaMilli Think they are often permanent. Think he made a new account but never told most of us what his new account was.

[AltValue @OfcMarshmallow]

@ZenoReport Yeah, as a value/income investor I cant justify buying $SPCX or $TSLA. Not even close.

[AltValue @OfcMarshmallow]

I think it is likely redemptions peak in Q2 of 2026 and start to moderate in Q3 or Q4 2026. $OWL got dragged through the coals by the media and public but fundamentals have never been better.

$OTF Trades at a massive 33% discount to NAV. The discount is closer to 35-38% once the 250mil in share buybacks are executed and you account for the $SPCX IPO. OTF has a decent sized position in SpaceX it obtained pre-IPO.

[AltValue @OfcMarshmallow]

Over the past month $OWL is up 26.92% though it is still down 31.03% YTD.

There's been a shift in the media narrative the past month towards private credit and alternative asset managers.

Is this the beginning of a sustained rally in Alt managers or just a dead-cat bounce?

[AltValue @OfcMarshmallow]

@ZenoReport It has but these cycles have always reversed. Those who invested at these depressed levels have historically had significant market out-performance.

BDCs and the alt managers are well positioned for recovery.

[AltValue @OfcMarshmallow]

@ZenoReport @QualCompounders @Support @Safety @LeifInvests @Acevent95706230 @BlackMambaMilli Same here, I'm relatively inactive now myself . Too much overtime right now to post and interact regularly. X is more like a full time job if you want to monetize.

[AltValue @OfcMarshmallow]

@ZenoReport @QualCompounders @Support @Safety @LeifInvests @Acevent95706230 @BlackMambaMilli Yeah, was a real shame. Enjoyed interacting with him.

[AltValue @OfcMarshmallow]

@Investor_NICK_ Stock performance often doesn't reflect company performance. This is the case with the alternative asset managers right now.

[AltValue @OfcMarshmallow]

@MantisInvests I like AXP but think it is slightly too pricey for me. If it had a pullback I'd definitely look at buying it.

I'd like to see it drop to around $240 first though.

[AltValue @OfcMarshmallow]

Thanks, there were multiple dents in the grill including a soft ball sized dent along edge of the lid.

Amazon refunded it and is having it picked up.

I decided to skip the shipping process and buy a replacement locally.

I understand that things happen such as boxes being dropped. It's just part of life.

Thanks for reaching out.

[AltValue @OfcMarshmallow]

@OAwesomeme @Market_Mind_ $XOM is the 5th largest holding in the graphic.

[AltValue @OfcMarshmallow]

@HySpDcHiKnFeeD2 @Wendys I got one of the new spicy chicken sandwiches from $WEN tonight. My wife and I were impressed. We'd never eaten at Wendy's til a week ago.

We both thought the new spicy chicken was better than Chick-fil-A.

Not to mention the Baconator....

[AltValue @OfcMarshmallow]

@Wendys Controversial opinion. The new spicy chicken sandwich is better than Chick-Fil-A.

[AltValue @OfcMarshmallow]

@MFisher16449635 @Wendys Just had the New spicy chicken sandwich for the first time tonight.

It was better than Chick-fil-A. I was honestly very surprised by how good it was.

[AltValue @OfcMarshmallow]

@kleeinvesting Yeah, it is hard to overlook $WEN at the current valuation though. It only takes a modest recovery for great returns.

The real risk is if $WEN doesn't improve domestic sales.

[AltValue @OfcMarshmallow]

@MatthewSpositi Yeah, here's to hoping the project fresh and Bob Wright can turn it around. I have a lot of faith in the new CEO. He was able to turn around Pot Belly and returned 500% for shareholders in 5 years.

[AltValue @OfcMarshmallow]

@AmalyaSunshine Agreed, $YUM has a great track record but the valuation is very rich.