For a while, I have been getting signs for a NASTY "Black Swan" corrective move around Q3 2026 (May-Sept).
OBVIOUSLY I can't know what it is because I am just a mathematician. But I wonder what would be a catalyzer for that. Maybe astrologers have a better idea on the fundamental reason behind it, perhaps some scheduled global events.
Very similar vibes I got back in July 2019, when I started to sound the alarm for March 2020. So yeah, there's that.
Let see what the future brings.
One day at a time! 👺
$BTC First time this week that the funding rate on Bitcoin has moved into the negative.
This of course doesn't mean you can expect a bounce/squeeze immediately, in fact, funding rates can remain that way for a long time.
But atleast it is showing some early signs of shorts getting a bit excited and/or spot selling diminishing slightly.
Good to keep an eye on in the days ahead.
The $BTC MVRV Z Score has historically been a solid indicator of when the market has been overheating and nearing a top.
Right now, the levels we're at have been very sustainable due to the slow and steady move up by BTC.
I agree not all of these "top indicators" will always remain accurate but I think it's good to come back to things like these every now and then and see where we stand. Obviously the market is changing, we have ETFs, institutions etc etc, but keeping up to date with the metrics never hurts.
The market has now been 10 months since the last period where it was truly overheated. This was post election when $BTC & Alts went crazy for a few weeks.
The current slow grind up on $BTC and some alts is definitely much more sustainable but less exciting. Sentiment seems quite neutral overall and not a lot of new retail participants are coming in due to this.
I do think we will see another overheated period again somewhere at the end of 2025, I do also think that when you see such a period again that it is likely a good place to scale out here and there. That's going to be my plan at least.
If we end up taking a different route and extend the cycle into 2026, I'll simply be patient for a little longer :)
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Fast EMAs: 33,55
Slow EMAs: 100,200 (cloud)
A good approach for taking profits at large
For when the market gets too hot and the time comes
1) Sell all your alts
2) Buy bitcoin
3) Short bitcoin futures against your spot
4) Lock the carry for 2 to 6 months
5) Sit back, relax, and profit
A good signal would be when the bitcoin futures 3 month annualized basis goes to around 30% or so.
When that happens, by shorting futures against spot you can lock in that rate of return until futures expiry (the implied rate of return is the so-called carry).
Quasi guaranteed.
You short futures rather than perps, to lock the carry (the return). The carry you get from perps changes every few hours, and cannot be locked in.
In April 2021 for example, you could have locked 50% in, annualized.
When that yield gets too high it drives smart money to take profit. It also means the market is levered to the brim.
(Note that the actual return would vary depending on things such as bid-ask spreads and slippage. This trade also has counterparty risk. This is not financial advice, DYOR)
Fresh capital is fueling #Bitcoin.
As the realized cap grew, the ceiling price increased from $129K to $146K in 30 days.
At $102K, it's far from a bubble—it would need a 43% surge to hit the threshold often considered a bubble.
Looking at the most efficient way to play next $btc cycle. Currently, a 400 dte $bito contract with a strike double the atm strike i.e $30 has asks at $1,11.
If we assume that we can get similar contracts with the identical properties at Q4 23 or Q1 24, and believe corn goes to $100k, then a $10k invested turns easily into $300k.
Depending on the speed of pump and etc, this could easily multiply. Also, if we nuke before the next cycle, you could accumulate such options at much better prices.
Me thinks we have a chance of wagmiing
Understanding #BTC.D is the key to understanding #altcoin cycles. #Altcoin cycles historically begin when #BTC.D starts to heavily decline.
#BTC.D is currently at 53.89%. My view is that when #Bitcoin begins its price discovery to the upside #BTC.D might gain some ground to 58%. However, very quickly this will begin to decline and the ‘mania phase’ in #altcoins will begin.
In short we are very close. I anticipate this mania phase to begin within the next 3/6 months (maybe sooner).