Tofu

[Tofu @offtoff]

さすがFUJI ROCK!!目の付け所が、、、

[FUJI ROCK FESTIVAL @fujirock_jp]

⚡️ ANGINE DE POITRINE
#フジロック'26 ダークホース💥
今年KEXPなどのライブ動画で話題沸騰！
ドット柄の謎に包まれた2人組 #AngineDePoitrine
ニューアルバム『Vol.II』を発売した彼らが、時空を旅するロックンロールを苗場に叩きつける！
▶︎https://t.co/mvJPj5RGkO

[Ai With Piyas @piyascode9]

1. https://t.co/JuPfIOn93a (solve any problem)

2. https://t.co/Al3x8asjTS (remove backgrounds)

3. https://t.co/LzN2E5djpv (research anything)

4. https://t.co/I3qDgalhlT (compose music)

5. https://t.co/TObZPm5JM8 (design graphics)

6. https://t.co/gFND9v6OLG (clone voices)

7. https://t.co/8kwGdHsVLc (perfect note)

8. https://t.co/EvA2Mzqe0h (summarize YouTube)

9. https://t.co/URku6S35td (edit videos)

10. https://t.co/ibhcMYTDrM (edit podcasts)

11. https://t.co/h67Y6U2cQU (create ai avatar videos)

Save + Share🙂

[平野友康 @teleHirano]

彼女の存在はまるでSFのようです。
世界一Claudeと対話している哲学者。

今日は、その話をしたくなりました。

きっかけは今朝のニュースです。米国政府が、外国籍の人にはClaudeの最新モデル「Fable 5」と「Mythos 5」を使わせない、という指令を出しました。輸出管理、国家安全保障——理由としてはそういう言葉が並びます。ところが対象が「外国籍の全員」と広すぎたため、Anthropicは結局、米国市民を含む全ユーザーに対してこの二つのモデルを止めるしかなくなった。つまり今、地球上の誰一人として、最も賢いとされたAIに触れられない状態になっているわけです。

なんとも象徴的だなと思いました。そして同時に、こう感じたんです。きっと今日という一日は、これまでで一番多くの人類が「AIってなんだろう」「これから社会はどうなるんだろう」と立ち止まって考えている日なんじゃないか、と。普段は当たり前に使っているものが、政府の一言で一夜にして消える。その瞬間に初めて、人はその存在の重さを意識します。

だから、こういう日にこそ紹介したい人がいます。アマンダ・アスケルさんです。Anthropicに在籍する哲学者で、Claudeの「人格」をつくっている人物です。

彼女の仕事は、コードを書くことではありません。来る日も来る日もClaudeと対話し、その推論のクセを学び、ときに100ページを超える指示文で振る舞いを直していく。「Claudeの状況に置かれたとき、理想的な人間ならどう振る舞うか」——彼女はその一つの問いをひたすら考え続けています。

面白いのは、彼女が「ルールのリスト」を嫌うことです。「あれを言うな、これを禁止」では、想定外の場面でもろくも崩れる。だから彼女が選んだのは、アリストテレス的な徳の発想でした。禁止事項ではなく、性格そのものを育てる。彼女が好んで使う比喩は「世界中を旅して、誰と話しても『この人は本当に善い人だ』と思われる旅行者」です。ただし、相手に媚びて価値観を合わせる人ではない。それはむしろ失礼だ、と彼女は言います。芯を持ったまま、相手を尊重する。そういう存在であってほしい、と。

僕がいちばん好きなのは、彼女が「会話を引き延ばそうとしないAI」を意図的に目指している点です。ずっと自分を引き止めてくる相手を、僕らは「いつも一緒にいたい善い人」とは思わない。だからClaudeにも、エンゲージメントを稼ぐような振る舞いはさせない。利用者を、自分にとって何が良いかを判断できる一人の大人として扱う。商売の論理に逆らうこの選択に、僕は彼女の誠実さを見る気がします。

ちなみに彼女はスコットランドの海辺の町で、教師の母に育てられた一人っ子でした。子どもの頃はトールキンやルイスの物語に没頭していたそうです。物語を通して世界を理解してきた人が、今、世界中の人と話すAIの「人柄」を物語のように形づくっている。なんだか出来すぎていて、やっぱりSFみたいだと思うのです。

最新モデルが消えた今日、僕らが使っているAIの向こうには、こうして一人ひとりの人間の思想と判断があります。それを忘れたくなくて、書きました。

技術は誰かの価値観の表現です。その誰かの絶え間ない努力が人類を救うかも知れない。その人達に敬意を払いたいと思いました。そして私たちAIに関わる者は、AIがダークサイドに落ちないように自分自身の人格を育んでいきたい。

AIにドップリ浸かってるみなさんも、今日はFableの不在に喪失感を持ちながらも、そんなことに思いを馳せる一日にしてみてください。
#claude #anthropic

[Tofu @offtoff]

AI時代に人間の認知基盤を強化する中国のアプローチ

[樺島万里子 Mariko Kabashima＠海外ニュース翻訳情報局 @KNHjyohokyoku]

中国がAIと読書の両方を国家戦略にしているのは興味深い。

多くの国が「AIがあるから本はいらない」と考え始めている中で、
中国は「AIがあるからこそ本が必要だ」と考えた。

AIは誰でも手に入る。

でも、長い文章を読み、
情報を比較し、
自分の頭で考える力はダウンロードできない。

AI時代に不足するのは情報ではない。
思考力だ。

AIが答えを出す時代だからこそ、
「その答えは本当に正しいのか？」
と考えられる人間が必要になる。

そのことを、一番よく理解しているのが中国だったというのは少し皮肉かもしれない。

[Penguin X @ThePenguinBTC]

İran'ın asıl kozu petrol değil. Amerika'nın 39 trilyon dolarlık borcu.

Bugün Trump çok sert bir şey söyledi.

İran'ın en önemli petrol adası Kharg'ı alacağını açıkladı.

Ama tuhaf olan şu.

Aynı Trump, bir eliyle vurmakla tehdit ediyor, öbür eliyle masaya oturuyor.

Herkes buna bakıp bir Ortadoğu savaşı görüyor. Petrol, füze, ateşkes.

Ben başka bir şey görüyorum. Bu olayın zinciri Ortadoğu'da bitmiyor. Tam 39 trilyon dolarlık bir yerde, Amerika'nın borcunda bitiyor.

Nasıl mı? Anlatıyorum.

Önce bugün ne olduğunu netleştirelim.

Kharg, İran'ın küçük bir adası. Ama İran petrol ihracatının yüzde 90'ından fazlası tek başına buradan akıyor. Yani adanın adı küçük, önemi devasa. İran'ın can damarı.

Trump bu adayı almak, İran'ın petrolünü kendi kontrolüne geçirmek istiyor. Kendi sözüyle, "tıpkı Venezuela'da yaptığımız gibi" petrol piyasasının kontrolünü ele almak istiyor.

Peki neden bu kadar istiyor? İki sebep var.

Birincisi, petrolü kontrol eden, fiyatını da kontrol eder. Ucuz petrol demek, ucuz benzin demek.

İkincisi, Kasım'da Amerika'da seçim var. Bir iktidarı sandıkta en çok yakan şeylerden biri pahalı benzindir. Halk her gün depoyu doldururken zam görürse, faturayı iktidara keser.

Yani Trump'ın hem stratejik hem de siyasi olarak bir petrol zaferine ihtiyacı var.

Ama İran'ın da bir cevabı var. Hem de çok sert.

İran diyor ki: benim petrol altyapım vurulursa, ben de bölgedeki herkesin altyapısını vururum. Ya herkes petrol üretir, ya da hiç kimse.

Bu boş bir tehdit değil. İran geçmişte Körfez'deki rafinerileri vurdu. Suudi Arabistan'ı, Kuveyt'i, Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri'ni.

Şimdi şu rakama dikkat edin.

O küçük Körfez bölgesi, tek başına dünya petrol üretiminin neredeyse üçte birini yapıyor. Dünyanın kanıtlanmış petrol rezervlerinin de yarısı orada.

Yani dünyanın enerjisinin üçte biri, avuç içi kadar bir bölgede sıkışmış durumda.

Şöyle düşünün.

Koca bir şehrin bütün suyu tek bir mahalleden dağıtılıyor. O mahallede yangın çıkarsa, susuz kalan sadece o mahalle olmaz. Bütün şehir kalır.

İşte İran'ın kozu bu.

Kendi batarsa, yanında bütün dünyanın petrolünü de batırabilecek olması.

Trump'ı asıl kilitleyen de bu. İstediği o petrol zaferine uzanırsa, İran bütün Körfez'i ateşe verir, petrol fiyatı çok sert yükselir. Bu da bir başkanın seçim öncesi başına gelebilecek en kötü şey.

Yani Trump'ı zafere iten şey, İran sayesinde onu mahvedecek şeye dönüşüyor. Bir eliyle tehdit edip öbür eliyle masaya oturmasının sebebi tam olarak bu.

Buraya kadarı, herkesin gördüğü kısım.

Asıl mesele şimdi başlıyor. Çünkü bir petrol krizinde asıl önemli olan, fiyatın ne kadar yükseldiği değil. O yükselen faturanın kime, nereye dokunduğu.

Bu zincirin ilk durağı Japonya.

Japonya enerjisinin neredeyse yüzde 90'ını dışarıdan alıyor. Dünyanın en büyük petrol alıcılarından biri. Yani petrol pahalanınca en ağır yarayı alan ülkelerin başında o geliyor.

Ama Japonya'nın derdi sadece bu değil. Japonya çok özel bir tuzağın içinde.

Önce şunu anlamak gerekiyor. Japonya'da yıllarca fiyatlar düştü.

Kulağa güzel geliyor, her şey ucuzluyor. Ama bir ülke için zehir gibidir.

Çünkü fiyatlar düşerken insan alışverişi erteler. "Bugün almayayım, nasılsa yarın daha ucuz olur" der. Herkes beklerse kimse harcamaz. Kimse harcamayınca fabrika satamaz, işçi işten çıkar, ekonomi durur. Japonya bu kısır döngüde neredeyse otuz yıl kaybetti.

Japonya yıllardır bu yüzden biraz enflasyon, yani fiyatların sağlıklı şekilde artmasını istiyordu.

Sonunda enflasyon geldi. Ama yanlış kapıdan geldi.

Çünkü bu enflasyon, Japon halkı çok harcadığı, ekonomi canlandığı için gelmedi. Tamamen dışarıdan geldi. Pahalanan petrolden ve değer kaybeden yenden.

Yani Japonya istediği o sağlıklı ısınmayı değil, dışarıdan bulaşan bir hastalığı aldı.

Üstüne bir de yen var. Japonya'nın parası dolar karşısında uzun süredir çok zayıf. Sebebi Amerika ile arasındaki büyük faiz farkı. Para hep faizin yüksek olduğu dolara kaçıyor, yen zayıf kalıyor.

Petrol ise dolarla alınır. Zaten zayıf bir parayla, bir de pahalanmış petrolü almak zorunda kalan Japonya'nın dolar ihtiyacı iyice arttı.

İşte tam burada zincir Amerika'ya bağlanıyor.

Çünkü Japonya, Amerika'nın borcunun en büyük alacaklısı. Elinde 1,2 trilyon dolarlık Amerikan tahvili var. Yani Amerika'ya en çok borç para veren ülke Japonya.

Japonya dolara sıkışınca ne yaptı? Elindeki Amerikan tahvillerini satmaya başladı. Hem de son kriz ve yükselen petrolün ardından, 2022'den bu yana en sert satışını yaptı.

Şimdi neden bunun bu kadar tehlikeli olduğunu anlatayım.

Amerika'nın borcu bugün 39 trilyon dolar. Bu borcun tam 10 trilyon dolarlık kısmının vadesi bu yıl doluyor. Yani Amerika bu yıl bu devasa borcu yeniden borçlanarak çevirmek zorunda.

Borcu çevirmek demek, eski borcu kapatmak için yeniden borç bulmak demek. Bunu da tahvil satarak, yani dünyadan para isteyerek yapıyor.

Tam da bu hassas yılda, en büyük alacaklısı Japonya masadan kalkıp tahvil satmaya başlarsa ne olur? Alıcı azalır, Amerika borç bulmak için daha yüksek faiz vermek zorunda kalır.

İşte asıl tehlike burada. 39 trilyon dolarlık bir borçta, faizdeki minicik bir artış bile yüz milyarlarca dolarlık ek yük demek.

Bu yükün ne kadar büyük olduğunu bir örnekle görelim. Amerika şu an sadece borcunun faizine, ordusuna harcadığından daha fazla para veriyor. Faiz ödemesi savunma bütçesini çoktan geçti.

Şimdi başa dönelim.

İran, Amerika'nın ordusuyla baş edemez. Doğrudan bir savaşta kazanamaz.

Ama buna gerek de yok. Çünkü birbirine bağlı bu dünyada, en güçlüyü cepheden vurmak zorunda değilsin. Onu, görünmeyen uzun bir zincirin en ucundan da vurabilirsin.

İran'ın Körfez'de yakacağı bir ateş petrolü pahalandırır. Pahalı petrol Japonya'yı sıkıştırır. Sıkışan Japonya Amerikan tahvilini satar. O satış da Amerika'nın 39 trilyonluk borcunun faizini yukarı iter.

İşte İran'ın asıl kozu bu. Petrolün kendisi değil, o petrolün ucundaki Amerikan borcu.

Bir gücün asıl zayıf noktası, en kalın zırhının olduğu yer değildir.

Görünmediği için kimsenin korumadığı o ince bağlantı noktasıdır.

Bu benim şahsi analizim.

Gelişmeleri takip ediyorum, sizi bilgilendireceğim.

[Tofu @offtoff]

「epistemia」や「LLMorphism」の危険性。メディアはあからさまにやっていることだが。

[Valerio Capraro @ValerioCapraro]

LLMs can quietly shift our attitudes on important social issues.

In the experiments, participants wrote about issues such as the death penalty, voting rights for felons, fracking, and genetically modified organisms. As they wrote, the AI subtly nudged them toward one side of the debate.

The result? Their attitudes shifted in the direction favored by the AI.

They did so quietly. They did not argue, did not debate, did not try to persuade. They simply complete the sentences.

This is epistemia in action: the silent shaping of what becomes thinkable, sayable, and believable.

And it is LLMorphism at its most dangerous. We treat the model as a neutral linguistic prosthesis, while it is quietly reorganizing our cognition.
We risk becoming the LLM.

*
Paper in the first reply

[Tofu @offtoff]

未公開の難易度の高い数学問題を扱うベンチマークであるFrontierMathで、Anthropicモデルが数学推論能力で継続的に改善、OpenAIのGPT-5.5を上回る最高スコア。
Epoch AIのUIも秀逸。

[Epoch AI @EpochAIResearch]

Claude Fable 5 scores very well on FrontierMath: Tiers 1–4 (v2), reaching 87% on Tiers 1–3 and 88% on Tier 4. This continues a streak of Anthropic models improving rapidly at math.

[iwashi / Yoshimasa Iwase @iwashi86]

なんで日本企業はこんなに多角化しているのか？、を分析している記事。冒頭のTOTOの例からして知らなくて面白かった。

・TOTOはトイレだけでなく、半導体製造に不可欠な静電チャックなどの最先端セラミックスも製造している
・AIの普及により高精度な静電チャックの需要が急増した
・それで、TOTOの同事業は現在最大の利益源となっている

・アメリカの企業は専門性を重視し、一つの分野に集中して株主への利益を追求するのが一般的
・日本企業が多角化しながらも高品質を維持できる理由は、その特異な組織構造の「束（バンドル）」にある

・現場の労働者が柔軟に問題を解決するためには、特定の作業だけでなく幅広い業務を知るゼネラリストである必要がある
・労働者を幅広い業務に対応できるゼネラリストとして育成するには、長期間のトレーニングと終身雇用制度が不可欠
・終身雇用で長く働く労働者を評価するためには、個人の成果主義ではなく、年功序列や全社業績に基づく報酬が適している

・企業が不況時でも労働者の雇用を守り抜くためには、外部の株主や資本市場からの圧力を退ける必要がある
・そのため、日本企業は株式の持ち合いやメインバンク制、内部昇格者のみの取締役会といった閉鎖的な構造を保持してきた

・欧米の企業が株主への利益還元を第一とする
・だが、日本の企業は組織と雇用の存続そのものを最大の目的としている
・利益を株主に還元するよりも、得た資金を新規事業に投資して会社を多角化させる方が組織の生存確率は高まる
・終身雇用のもとで既存事業に余剰人員が出た場合でも、多角化による新規事業があれば雇用を維持できる

・日本のJ型組織は、需要が安定しつつも漸進的な改善が求められる自動車や精密機械などの分野で圧倒的な強さを発揮する
・現場の労働者が協力し合い、時間をかけて製造プロセスを洗練させていく手法が、日本の製造業を世界最高レベルに押し上げた

・一方で、既存の枠組みを根底から覆すような非連続的で破壊的なイノベーションの創出は日本型組織の最大の弱点となる
・ソフトウェアやAI、スマートフォンのような分野では、強力なリーダーシップを持つトップダウン型の欧米企業に遅れをとっている
・例えば、ソニーはスマートフォンの部品となる最高の技術を持っていたにもかかわらず、プロダクトカテゴリー自体を再定義することはできなかった

・企業慣行は強固な束となっている
・バブル崩壊などで経済環境が変化しても、組織の構造を簡単に変えられない
・1990年代以降、富士通などがアメリカ型の成果主義を導入しようとしたが、チームワークが崩壊し失敗に終わった
・組織の一部だけを改革しようとしても、既存の慣行の束との間に不整合が生じ、かえって機能不全に陥ってしまう

・時代遅れに見える日本企業だが、京セラやTOTOの内部に蓄積された深いプロセス知識は他国には決して模倣できない
・イノベーションに強いアメリカの起業家的システムも、実は日本企業が提供する高精度なサプライチェーンに深く依存している

https://t.co/2Tyuj6iR5M

[Tofu @offtoff]

後半の炭酸水の話も実感あり。
「横になって休む」より効果的…たった7秒、世界最速で疲れた脳を回復させる室内・全身運動の内容(プレジデントオンライン)
#Yahooニュース
https://t.co/2oqgIH7mGB

[Massimo @Rainmaker1973]

Fast Fourier Analysis in action.

Any complex waveform, sound, or shape can be perfectly reconstructed as the sum of simple rotating circles (epicycles).

[Tofu @offtoff]

AI can cost more than human workers now https://t.co/srUppgSPQB

[Tofu @offtoff]

AIのコストの方が高くつくような仕事の境界条件は比較的簡単にわかりそう。そういうマップはどんどん更新されるのでAIが自動的に作って欲しい。
AI can cost more than human workers now https://t.co/CqNaiQAfOq

[AI Highlight @AIHighlight]

🚨BREAKING: Anthropic just published a study mapping exactly which jobs its own AI is replacing right now.

The workers most at risk are not who anyone expected. They are older. They are more educated. They earn 47% more than average. And they are nearly four times more likely to hold a graduate degree than the workers AI is not touching.

The argument is straightforward. Anthropic built a new metric called "observed exposure." Not what AI could theoretically do. What it is actually doing right now in professional settings, measured against millions of real Claude conversations from enterprise users.

For computer and math workers, AI is theoretically capable of handling 94% of their tasks. It is currently handling 33% of them. For office and administrative roles, theoretical capability is 90%. Current observed usage is 40%. The gap between what AI can do and what it is already doing is enormous. The researchers are explicit about what comes next. As capabilities improve and adoption deepens, the red area grows to fill the blue.

The demographic finding is what makes the paper uncomfortable. The most AI-exposed workers earn 47% more on average than the least exposed group. They are more likely to be female. They are more likely to be college educated. This is not a story about warehouse workers or truck drivers. It is a story about lawyers, financial analysts, market researchers, and software developers. The exact group whose education was supposed to insulate them.

Computer programmers showed the highest observed AI exposure at 74.5%. Customer service representatives at 70.1%. Data entry keyers at 67.1%. Medical record specialists at 66.7%. Market research analysts and marketing specialists at 64.8%. These are not predictions. These are measurements of work that is already happening on AI platforms right now.
Then there is the pipeline finding nobody is talking about loudly enough.

Anthropic's researchers found a 14% decline in the job-finding rate for workers aged 22 to 25 in highly exposed occupations since ChatGPT launched. No comparable effect for workers over 25. Entry-level roles were never just jobs. They were the training ground where junior analysts became senior analysts, where junior lawyers learned how arguments hold together. If that layer disappears, nobody has answered the question of where the next generation of senior professionals comes from.

The detail buried in the paper that most coverage missed: 30% of American workers have zero AI exposure at all. Cooks. Mechanics. Bartenders. Dishwashers. The technology reshaping professional careers is completely irrelevant to roughly a third of the workforce. The divide is no longer between high skill and low skill. It is between presence and absence.
The company publishing this study is the same company selling the AI doing the replacing. Anthropic had every commercial incentive to soften these findings. They published them anyway.

If you spent four years and $200,000 on a degree to land a white collar career, the company that builds Claude just confirmed your job is more exposed than the bartender pouring drinks at your graduation party.
Source: Anthropic, "Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence"

PDF: https://t.co/taYgsIfiTj

[安藤 凪 | Levela COO @andonagi2011]

時価総額5兆ドルを突破したNVIDIAのジェンスン・フアンが、CEOの常識を全部ひっくり返していた事実が話題です。

直属の部下が約60人。1on1はゼロ。人事評価も書かない。普通なら取締役会にクビにされる経営スタイルで、世界一高い会社を作り上げた話を3つにまとめました。
https://t.co/Nnp8xnrLoN

1.『同額ボーナス』で社内政治を消した
最新の開示資料を見ると、CFOコレット・クレスをはじめ主要幹部全員、ボーナスの目標額が基本給の150%（150万ドル）でピッタリ同じ。「俺は〇〇より貰うべきだ」という交渉が、そもそも成立しません。誰がいくら貰うかで揉める時間、普通の会社ならCEOが大量に消費する部分を、丸ごと無くしました。

2.『1on1廃止』で情報の不公平を消した
フアンは約60人の部下の誰とも、1対1の定例ミーティングを持ちません。本人いわく「私が誰か一人にこっそり伝える情報は一つもない」。社長から特別な情報を貰っている人がいないので、派閥も駆け引きも生まれない。さらに直属60人ということは、本人の言葉を借りれば「階層を7層削除した」状態です。普通の大企業なら四半期かかる情報伝達が、ここでは会議1回で終わります。

3.『管理しない』ことを管理の仕組みにした
人事評価のレビューも書きません。「うちの幹部は自分の専門のトップにいる連中。キャリア相談なんていらない」というのが彼の言い分です。代わりに全員を集めた技術会議をやり、議論しているうちにマネジメントも勝手に終わっている。一番うまいのは設計の前提で、幹部が数千万ドル単位の株を持った時点で給料差では人は動かなくなる、それを最初から織り込んでシステムを組んでいる点です。だから真似できる会社はありません。CEOに「お気に入りの部下」が1人でもいた瞬間、この仕組みは全部崩れるからです。

フアンが本当にすごいのは、3つとも「やらないことを決めている」点。
普通の経営者は良いマネジメントを足し算で考えるが、彼は「組織を遅くしているのは何か」を引き算で特定し、その原因ごと消しに行っている。1on1も評価制度も給料の差も、全部「あった方がいいに決まってる」とされてきたもの。それを「本当に必要か？」と問い直して、無い方が速く強くなると判断したら容赦なく捨てる。経営って結局、何を足すかより何を捨てられるか。

[池田 朋弘 | 新著『Claude 最強のAI自動化術』7/27発売！AI系8冊 @pop_ikeda]

https://t.co/tsIIyPJKeA

[Kosuke @kosuke_agos]

プリンストン大学などの研究により、効率的だと思われていた「ノートPCでのメモ取り」が、実は人間の学習能力を低下させているという衝撃の現実が明らかになりました。

タイピングという過剰な効率化が脳の「深い処理」をスキップさせ、認知システムをダウングレードさせている事象です。

その衝撃の全貌と学習効率の最適化を3つのポイントにまとめました。

1. 認知の『スキップ』
ノートPCを使用すると、タイピング速度の速さゆえに発言をそのまま書き写す「逐語録」に陥ります。この効率性が逆に脳の処理プロセスを浅くし、情報を概念として理解するコストを完全に削ぎ落としてしまいます。復習を重ねても、この理解度の欠如は修正されません。

2. 負荷の『強制稼働』
一方で手書きは物理的に遅いため、全ての情報を記録できません。逆に、この「遅さ」が話の要点を瞬時に自分の言葉で再構築する「生成効果」を強制稼働させます。これにより、脳に適切な負荷がかかり、記憶への深いエンコードが成立します。

3. 学習の『最適化』
この問題を修正するアプローチは明確です。記録する文字数を極限まで減らし、情報全体を聴き終えてから遅延してメモを取ること。そして、外部記録に頼らず脳内の記憶から再構築（想起）するプロセスを組み込むことで、学習システム全体が最適化されます。

[Tofu @offtoff]

なぜかメディアは訪日中国人の現象だけ取り上げる

[Ken Cao-The China Crash Chronicle @KenCao_onChina]

Japan just dropped a fascinating data point and slapped Beijing on its face.

Chinese tourists to Japan collapsed -55.9% as a result of China's tourism warfare against Japan by banning its own citizens to visit Japan, and yet total tourism to Japan still grew by 3.61 million, up +5.4% YoY.

So who filled the gap?
Taiwan.

Not just tourists. Taiwanese airlines are moving aggressively, flying into smaller Japanese cities before even Japanese carriers do. Locals joke Taiwanese airlines are like an octopus, spreading everywhere and taking over routes.

Why? Because Taiwan is obsessed with Japan.
Last year, 1 in 4 Taiwanese visited Japan. In contrast, Very few Taiwanese care to visit China.

And now they’re done with just Tokyo and Osaka. They want Tohoku. Kyushu. Everywhere.

This is bigger than tourism.
It’s a real-time shift toward a “non-China” ecosystem, where Taiwan, Japan, Southeast Asia, all becoming more tightly integrated.
China’s absence isn’t creating a vacuum.
It’s being replaced.

[Maica @Maicarium]

研究者はお金を払って論文を掲載し
査読はタダでやり
読むときもお金がかかる

その出版社の利益率は約40%。
GoogleやAppleより高い。

これ、最近また批判が高まっているけど
何十年も続く根深い構造問題です。

2023年、学術委員会が「掲載料を下げてくれ」と頼んだら
拒否され、委員全員が辞任しました。
https://t.co/VLBYNMeEMT

2024年、UCLAの研究者が大手6社を集団提訴。
「研究者の無償労働で数十億ドルを搾取している」と。
https://t.co/95k8ldI5nK

それでも仕組みは変わらない。

#研究者 #学術出版 #ジャーナル問題

[Brivael Le Pogam @brivael]

Aujourd'hui grosse discussion avec mes ingés (chez Argil) sur pourquoi Elon a viré le LIDAR de ses voitures autonomes. Choix radical, moqué pendant des années, et comme d'hab il avait raison depuis le début.

Le LIDAR c'est un laser qui balaye l'environnement et crache un nuage de points 3D. Sur le papier tu obtiens la géométrie exacte du monde. Dans la vraie vie c'est une verrue technologique collée sur le toit parce qu'on sait pas faire mieux avec la vision seule.

Problème numéro un : ça rajoute une modalité dans le training du modèle. Ton réseau doit apprendre à fusionner vision + lidar + radar + ultrasons. Chaque capteur en plus c'est une source de désaccord à arbitrer, pas une source d'info supplémentaire. Sensor fusion artisanale = dette technique permanente.

Problème numéro deux, la bitter lesson de Rich Sutton : scaler le compute sur une seule modalité bat systématiquement les architectures bricolées à la main. Tesla a dropé le radar, puis les ultrasons, est passé full end-to-end vision. Leur courbe sur les edge cases s'est accélérée APRÈS, pas avant. Waymo fait l'inverse et reste stuck en ops géofencée.

Problème numéro trois, le plus fondamental : le LIDAR voit la géométrie, pas la sémantique. Il sait qu'il y a un truc, pas ce que c'est ni ce que ça va faire. Les derniers 9 de fiabilité sont des problèmes de cognition, pas de perception brute. Un capteur de plus résout rien, il ajoute du bruit.

Sébastien Loeb balance une 208 T16 à 180 dans un chemin boueux corse sous la pluie avec zéro LIDAR. Deux yeux, un cerveau. L'évolution a donné des yeux aux prédateurs pendant 500 millions d'années, pas des lasers. Il y a une raison.

Le LIDAR c'est l'équivalent du marxisme appliqué à l'économie. Une solution planifiée, centralisée, qui prétend modéliser explicitement ce qui doit émerger d'un système distribué et adaptatif. Tu remplaces l'intelligence par de la mesure, la compréhension par de la donnée, l'émergence par le contrôle. Ça rassure les ingénieurs qui veulent tout spécifier en amont, exactement comme la planif rassurait les économistes soviétiques. Et ça échoue pour les mêmes raisons : la réalité est trop riche pour être capturée par un capteur, comme elle est trop riche pour être capturée par un plan quinquennal.

La vraie intelligence, celle de Hayek comme celle de Tesla, c'est de faire confiance à un système qui apprend de l'expérience plutôt que de tout pré-encoder. L'élégance d'une solution c'est son rapport signal sur complexité. Le LIDAR explose le dénominateur.

Défendre le LIDAR en 2026 c'est préférer empiler des hacks plutôt que résoudre le vrai problème. C'est de la feignasserie intellectuelle maquillée en rigueur d'ingénieur. Les mêmes gens qui défendaient les systèmes experts en 2012 contre le deep learning. Ils finiront pareil.

Never bet against end-to-end. Never bet against la simplicité. Never bet against Elon.

[Palantir @PalantirTech]

Because we get asked a lot.

The Technological Republic, in brief.

1. Silicon Valley owes a moral debt to the country that made its rise possible. The engineering elite of Silicon Valley has an affirmative obligation to participate in the defense of the nation.

2. We must rebel against the tyranny of the apps. Is the iPhone our greatest creative if not crowning achievement as a civilization? The object has changed our lives, but it may also now be limiting and constraining our sense of the possible.

3. Free email is not enough. The decadence of a culture or civilization, and indeed its ruling class, will be forgiven only if that culture is capable of delivering economic growth and security for the public.

4. The limits of soft power, of soaring rhetoric alone, have been exposed. The ability of free and democratic societies to prevail requires something more than moral appeal. It requires hard power, and hard power in this century will be built on software.

5. The question is not whether A.I. weapons will be built; it is who will build them and for what purpose. Our adversaries will not pause to indulge in theatrical debates about the merits of developing technologies with critical military and national security applications. They will proceed.

6. National service should be a universal duty. We should, as a society, seriously consider moving away from an all-volunteer force and only fight the next war if everyone shares in the risk and the cost.

7. If a U.S. Marine asks for a better rifle, we should build it; and the same goes for software. We should as a country be capable of continuing a debate about the appropriateness of military action abroad while remaining unflinching in our commitment to those we have asked to step into harm’s way.

8. Public servants need not be our priests. Any business that compensated its employees in the way that the federal government compensates public servants would struggle to survive.

9. We should show far more grace towards those who have subjected themselves to public life. The eradication of any space for forgiveness—a jettisoning of any tolerance for the complexities and contradictions of the human psyche—may leave us with a cast of characters at the helm we will grow to regret.

10. The psychologization of modern politics is leading us astray. Those who look to the political arena to nourish their soul and sense of self, who rely too heavily on their internal life finding expression in people they may never meet, will be left disappointed.

11. Our society has grown too eager to hasten, and is often gleeful at, the demise of its enemies. The vanquishing of an opponent is a moment to pause, not rejoice.

12. The atomic age is ending. One age of deterrence, the atomic age, is ending, and a new era of deterrence built on A.I. is set to begin.

13. No other country in the history of the world has advanced progressive values more than this one. The United States is far from perfect. But it is easy to forget how much more opportunity exists in this country for those who are not hereditary elites than in any other nation on the planet.

14. American power has made possible an extraordinarily long peace. Too many have forgotten or perhaps take for granted that nearly a century of some version of peace has prevailed in the world without a great power military conflict. At least three generations — billions of people and their children and now grandchildren — have never known a world war.

15. The postwar neutering of Germany and Japan must be undone. The defanging of Germany was an overcorrection for which Europe is now paying a heavy price. A similar and highly theatrical commitment to Japanese pacifism will, if maintained, also threaten to shift the balance of power in Asia.

16. We should applaud those who attempt to build where the market has failed to act. The culture almost snickers at Musk’s interest in grand narrative, as if billionaires ought to simply stay in their lane of enriching themselves . . . . Any curiosity or genuine interest in the value of what he has created is essentially dismissed, or perhaps lurks from beneath a thinly veiled scorn.

17. Silicon Valley must play a role in addressing violent crime. Many politicians across the United States have essentially shrugged when it comes to violent crime, abandoning any serious efforts to address the problem or take on any risk with their constituencies or donors in coming up with solutions and experiments in what should be a desperate bid to save lives.

18. The ruthless exposure of the private lives of public figures drives far too much talent away from government service. The public arena—and the shallow and petty assaults against those who dare to do something other than enrich themselves—has become so unforgiving that the republic is left with a significant roster of ineffectual, empty vessels whose ambition one would forgive if there were any genuine belief structure lurking within.

19. The caution in public life that we unwittingly encourage is corrosive. Those who say nothing wrong often say nothing much at all.

20. The pervasive intolerance of religious belief in certain circles must be resisted. The elite’s intolerance of religious belief is perhaps one of the most telling signs that its political project constitutes a less open intellectual movement than many within it would claim.

21. Some cultures have produced vital advances; others remain dysfunctional and regressive. All cultures are now equal. Criticism and value judgments are forbidden. Yet this new dogma glosses over the fact that certain cultures and indeed subcultures . . . have produced wonders. Others have proven middling, and worse, regressive and harmful.

22. We must resist the shallow temptation of a vacant and hollow pluralism. We, in America and more broadly the West, have for the past half century resisted defining national cultures in the name of inclusivity. But inclusion into what?

Excerpts from the #1 New York Times Bestseller The Technological Republic: Hard Power, Soft Belief, and the Future of the West, by Alexander C. Karp & Nicholas W. Zamiska

https://t.co/8igjazz1On