you're paying a "lottery tax" on Polymarket and you don't even know it
it's the favorite-longshot bias: people overpay for longshots (the 5¢ "what if he wins" tickets) and quietly underprice the boring favorites sitting at 90¢+
the whole game comes down to one line:
edge = p_true - price
longshots: price > p_true → you're overpaying for a dream.
favorites: price < p_true → the math is quietly on your side.
why? a 3¢ bet that could 30x feels exciting, so the crowd piles in and it stays overpriced
meanwhile the 92¢ near-lock that should be 96¢ gets ignored – because who brags about winning 4 cents?
the exciting bet is where money goes to die. the boring one is where it compounds
next time you reach for a 4¢ lottery ticket – ask who's selling it to you, and why they're so happy to