Olaf Posch 🇺🇦

Professor of Economics at Universität Hamburg

[Olaf Posch 🇺🇦 @ole_posch]

Updated version of the continuous-time New Keynesian model. This paper shows that transitory and permanent shocks are necessary and sufficient for the three-equation NK model to explain the recent facts: https://t.co/Ky8hjabFoT

[Olaf Posch 🇺🇦 @ole_posch]

@kielinstitute @Ch_Trebesch Small correction: The lecture takes place on Oct 30, 2026 at the University of Hamburg. Looking forward to it!

[Olaf Posch 🇺🇦 @ole_posch]

What a kickoff! The New Hamburg-Kiel Lecture on Global Economic Affairs launches on Oct 30th with Dani Rodrik @rodrikdani @unihh

[Kiel Institut @kielinstitute]

📢 New semester in Germany, and we have a special event for you: Harvard economist Dani Rodrik on populism, the globalization backlash and remedies.
Inaugural Hamburg–Kiel Lecture, Oct 31, Hamburg!

Register now 👉 https://t.co/DHw6PX0uMf
Students, researchers, practitioners & everyone curious welcome!

[Tommaso Monacelli @monacelt]

📣We are hiring❗️

@Unibocconi Economics. Great research community. In a greater than ever city.

👇👇

[Karsten Müller @KarstenMueIIer]

GMD news: You can now ask your AI agent for hundreds of years of macro data.

The September 2026 update of the Global Macro Database is out, with plugins for Claude Code and Codex. 🧵

[Olaf Posch 🇺🇦 @ole_posch]

@instrumenthull Because they ackknowledge the suggestions made by Claude?

[Olaf Posch 🇺🇦 @ole_posch]

@JesusFerna7026 Nice coversation, Jesús. I really like your fundamentally optimistic view of AI.

[Jon Steinsson @JonSteinsson]

Many of us thought that AI was behind finding the error in Tirole (1985) that Econometrica recently published. Turns out that was not the case. Actually, even after the fact, AI couldn't find the error: https://t.co/1kOSClN8pv

[Michael Bauer @michaelbauer_hh]

📢Call for Papers and Nominations📢
We are hosting the 3rd Annual Conference on Macro-Finance Research In November. Please submit your working papers in macro-finance and monetary economics, and any nominations for the Janet Yellen Award, by June 15.
https://t.co/xKCJndmNV6

[Markus K. Brunnermeier @MarkusEconomist]

For PhD students around the world.
Online Summer School (6 weeks) @PrincetonBCF
Interested? Please register and join. First meeting May 19th
https://t.co/oryNoRLItO

[Justin Wolfers @JustinWolfers]

This measure of geopolitical risk just hit levels that put the current moment in the same league as the most dangerous moments of the 21st century.

[Justin Wolfers @JustinWolfers]

I don't often wear political t-shirts, but I'm proudly sporting this one today.

I'm an immigrant.

I teach American (and international!) college students, research the U.S. economy, consult with policymakers, write books, raise my kids, pay taxes, and try to make this a better place.

[Michael Bauer @michaelbauer_hh]

Adrien Auclert will present "New Keynesian Economics with Household and Firm Heterogeneity" in this month's VSME which we at the @sffed jointly organize with @cepr_org.

Join us on Thursday at 11am ET for Adrien's talk and a Q&A session!

https://t.co/oRPyST2lng

[Francesco Furlanetto 🇺🇦 @francescofurla8]

13th edition of the joint conference @NorgesBank @nationalbanken @bundesbank This year in Copenhagen with @ben_moll Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Swati Dinghra. Send your best papers! 🇳🇴🇩🇰🇩🇪 https://t.co/7GsLuCBVy6

[Hanno Lustig @HannoLustig]

How did we end up here? "These Keynesian policies have lingering macroeconomic consequences, though. To maximize their stimulative effects, the packages were financed with deficits. Contrary to some theoretical arguments , the deficits do not seem to have financed themselves, except perhaps with some inflation." Valerie Ramey. https://t.co/J1Ep6N0y7T

[Ludwig Straub @ludwigstraub]

🚨Application deadline coming up for our 2026 heterogenous-agent macro workshop in Frankfurt!

June 8-10 in Frankfurt, Germany.

Run with @a_auclert and Matt Rognlie. Hosted by @MathiasTrabandt.

All the details are here 👉 https://t.co/PtmNX5nMlK

Apply by this Friday!

[Justin Wolfers @JustinWolfers]

Calling tariff revenue a “windfall” is like calling your speeding ticket a bonus for the police budget. Sure, it’s revenue. But for you, it’s a tax.

[Michael Bauer @michaelbauer_hh]

Our Center for Monetary Research is hosting the 2nd Annual Macro-Finance Conference at the @sffed this fall. If you have a recent paper on the linkages between financial markets, monetary policy, and the macroeconomy, please submit by May 31!
https://t.co/eqDkzkOaBJ

[Justin Wolfers @JustinWolfers]

The President said of the U.S. economy: "We are a department store, and we set the price. I meet with the companies, and then I set a fair price, what I consider to be a fair price, and they can pay it, or they don't have to pay it."

And then... I lost it.

[Ludwig Straub @ludwigstraub]

New paper on recent US tariffs with Matt Rognlie and @a_auclert

Our focus: effects of temporary increases in tariffs (“tariff shocks")

Three Qs:
1 Will tariffs lead to a recession?
2 Will they reduce the trade deficit?
3 Why are they not appreciating USD? (as in std theory)

🧵

[Quillette @Quillette]

The Trouble with Tariffs | @johnhcochrane @IonaItalia

00:00 Understanding Tariffs and Import Duties
02:49 The Economic Impact of Tariffs
06:07 The Protectionism Debate
08:46 Historical Perspectives on Tariffs
12:08 Tariffs as a Bargaining Tool
15:06 The Role of Currency in Trade
18:08 Manufacturing and Economic Health
21:14 Stock Market Reactions to Tariffs
23:55 The Uncertainty of Tariff Policies
35:14 The Dilemma of Trade Relationships
38:00 Political Fallout from Trade Policies
39:51 The Impact of Tariffs on Global Alliances
42:03 The Role of DEI in Academia
44:26 Contrasting Leaders: Millet vs. Trump
46:02 The Future of Tariffs and Economic Policy
48:20 Doge and Government Efficiency
50:46 USAID
54:15 Labor Protections vs. Trade Protections
58:32 The Complexity of Tariffs on Essential Goods
01:03:54 The Necessity of Global Trade Relationships