Un proverbio turco dice “Che quando un clown si stabilisce in un palazzo reale, il clown non diventa RE ma e’ il palazzo che diventa un CIRCO”… Save AC Milan please! 🖤❤️ #Milan#Cardinale#shame#SerieA
When Your Stocks Go Up, Be Careful
One of the strangest truths in investing is that the better an investment performs, the worse an investment it can become. Most investors never realize this because rising stock prices make them feel smarter, safer, and more optimistic. A stock doubles, confidence rises, and the future appears brighter.
Yet a rising stock price does not necessarily mean the investment has become better. In many cases the business improves modestly while the stock price improves dramatically. When that happens, future returns may actually be falling even as investor enthusiasm is rising.
Most investors celebrate when a stock rises sharply. They check their brokerage account and feel validated. The wise investor understands that price and value are not the same thing.
Imagine you own a business worth $100 and one year later that business is worth $115. That is genuine progress because intrinsic value increased by 15%. Now imagine the market suddenly decides the business is worth $180 even though the underlying economics have changed very little.
Most investors treat the extra $65 as evidence that the business became dramatically better. In reality, the difference between price and value may have simply widened. The stock became more expensive, future returns became lower, and risk increased beneath the surface.
This is one of the market’s most dangerous gifts. The market has a habit of rewarding investors before proving them right. A stock rises, confidence grows, and investors begin trusting their conclusions more than they should.
The problem is that a rising stock price may have nothing to do with the quality of the original analysis. Sometimes the market is simply becoming more optimistic and willing to pay a higher multiple. The investor mistakes a favorable outcome for a correct decision and becomes increasingly vulnerable to future mistakes.
The market constantly plays tricks on our emotions. Falling stock prices make investors nervous even when opportunities may be improving. Rising stock prices make investors excited even when opportunities may be deteriorating. The market encourages investors to focus on how they feel rather than what the underlying business is actually worth.
Consider two businesses that both increase intrinsic value by 15% during the year. The first stock rises 15% while the second stock rises 80%. Most investors automatically assume the second investment was superior, but that conclusion may be completely wrong
The first stock may still be reasonably valued and capable of generating attractive future returns. The second stock may have simply borrowed returns from the future by becoming significantly more expensive. The better performing stock may actually be the less attractive investment going forward
Price is the most addictive number in finance. It updates every second, flashes green and red, and constantly demands our attention. Intrinsic value compounds quietly in the background and rarely receives the same attention despite being far more important
The investor who watches stock prices all day is like a farmer who digs up his crops every morning to see if they are growing. The activity creates the illusion of progress without contributing anything useful. Great investors spend their time thinking about the business rather than obsessing over the stock price.
Every time a stock rises dramatically for no obvious reason, resist the urge to celebrate immediately. Instead ask yourself whether intrinsic value increased or whether the difference between price and intrinsic value simply widened. That question will usually tell you far more about your future returns than the stock chart ever will
Most investors ask themselves how much money they made. The wise investor asks how much future return they may have sacrificed. A rising stock price creates wealth today, but when price rises much faster than value it may simply be pulling tomorrow’s returns into the present
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Back in 2022, Russian propagandist Soloviev and his cronies were mocking Ukrainian air raid sirens. For some reason, I don't think they're laughing today.
Declaraciones de Jurgen Klopp a ZDF, sobre la reanudación del juego retrasada por el árbitro, durante el cooling break del México-Sudáfrica para que terminaran los comerciales de algunas cadenas de TV:
"Esto es el fútbol siendo tomado como rehén por ejecutivos en oficinas con aire acondicionado".
"Estos supuestos 'descansos por el calor' nos los vendieron como un escudo para el bienestar de los jugadores, una noble espada contra el calor. ¿Pero en realidad? No es más que una jaula dorada construida para patrocinadores. Cuando vi a los jugadores parados durante un descanso por calor mientras los tiempos de televisión dictaban el ritmo del partido, no pude evitar preguntarme: ¿a quién está sirviendo realmente la Copa del Mundo? ¿A los aficionados?, ¿A los jugadores?, ¿O a los anunciantes?".
"Un partido de la Copa del Mundo debería fluir como un río. En cambio, estamos construyendo presas en medio de él para que los comerciales puedan pasar. Eso es peligroso para el espíritu del juego. El fútbol alguna vez fue el evento principal, pero ahora corre el riesgo de convertirse en la música de fondo de un espectáculo publicitario. Nos dicen que estos descansos son por el bienestar de los jugadores, y por supuesto la salud de los jugadores importa. Pero cuando el juego empieza a doblar sus rodillas ante los tiempos de la televisión, la gente va a hacer preguntas. El balón se supone que es la estrella. No un descanso comercial".
"La Copa del Mundo es la catedral del fútbol. Sin embargo, a veces da la sensación de que la hemos convertido en un centro comercial donde la caja registradora recibe más respeto que el propio partido. Si este es el futuro, entonces el fútbol ya no está siendo interrumpido por los anuncios. El fútbol se está convirtiendo en la interrupción entre los anuncios".