Oll Sailor

Crypto Gambler.

[Oll Sailor @oll_sailor]

@inversebrah Check the bookmarks

[Big D @bigdsenpai]

https://t.co/EWEI2RM72e

[Wintermute Intern @crypto_wintern]

cobie getting a job was the top 😭

[Squiggly Hair Shanks @redhairshanks86]

CBB is 100% right

you need to know your position in the chain:

founders make the most, bc they create tokens out of thin air

then vcs who get into seed

then kols and other insiders

then smart traders

then YOU

and after you it's only retail/normies

but normies are not in the market, so you are literally the last person buying from everyone ahead of you. that's the precise reason why you can NEVER support a vc project like celestia, monad, scroll, all of them

it's so logical and yet there are retards out there buying these things...

[fiskantes ⭐️🩸 @Fiskantes]

DeFi 2020

[DeFi Dad ⟠ defidad.eth @DeFi_Dad]

A big mistake I made last cycle is setting myself up for assumptions about price targets or multiples before I can accept "the bull run is complete."

I remember BTC at $69k in 2021 and thinking "well that's only 3X from the previous high, we know what BTC did in 2016-2017 so even with less volatility, there's a decent chance we go 5-10x and so just 5x would put us at $100k BTC."

As simple as that sounds, it works for me, overlaid with lots of other factors I'd consider.

But this was a huge mistake, because I spent early 2022 justifying why we had not topped mainly because I could not accept BTC never reached this imaginary line in the sand for me--$100k BTC. As fate would have it, we took another cycle to reach the mystical $100k threshold.

All this to say, it led me to roundtrip so much in profits. I think I sold 10-15% of my portfolio into stablecoins in 2021/2022, most of which went straight to taxes.

This cycle, I've changed but I remain a bull that doesn't plan to sell 100% of my portfolio because I really do believe crypto will be a $100T sector in the next decade so I want to remain long, for the longer term. However, I have positioned myself this run to more methodically take profits along the way and try to balance a range of emotions I feel below.

GREED: Believing crypto will grow to a $100T in the coming decade, I have to maintain that long bias, while also balancing profit-taking along the way so I can enjoy my life, have something offchain (ie a home, a vacation) to show from all this work, pay taxes, and look for ways to reinvest into more builders.

I have become increasingly aware I'm as susceptible as anyone to wanting to chase the hot thing (memecoins) but I know I don't have as much edge here as I do assessing, identifying, and getting long DeFi protocols.

So for this reason, I have satisfied my need to speculate by betting on platform tokens (ie VIRTUAL) this cycle, avoid the slot machines (memecoins), and limit my exposure to 0.25%-0.5% or less of my portfolio. To be frank, it's fun. (Note: I am not long VIRTUAL anymore but did enjoy being long from $1.5 to $4.20 before selling for profits. Might buy back next bear market, fundamentally I'm bullish on the team/platform.)

I also still enjoy a random high APY farming opportunity but approach this similarly with a small amount of my portfolio to protect myself against an exploit, while satisfying my greed to try and earn higher yields.

FOMO: The worst thing we can do in a bull run is succumb to FOMO (fear of missing out) and make poor decisions because we're worried we missed an opportunity. One of the best examples of FOMO this cycle is what we've witnessed with new money piling into memecoins and in a less degenerate way but still absurd way, AI agent tokens. The chance at a 1000x over the short term prompted so many to make less rational decisions with their money and gamble it away onchain, especially now knowing how rigged many of token launches were with Pump.

One of the issues we run into downstream from FOMO, is we neglect taking any profits. We keep moving the goal posts for what will make us happy--how much higher must your portfolio go before you've made enough to not be 100% allocated. I have done this myself as described above with the price of BTC last cycle and avoided the mistake this cycle. Instead, I've adopted a mindset to continually reassess where we are this cycle.

In 2023 and most of 2024, I was happy to take profits into BTC, ETH, and SOL but since BTC reached $100k in December, I've personally been taking profits into stablecoins because I need to be able to pay taxes on any gains and I'm already so overexposed to crypto. I'm not growing my position sizes enough to justify the risk of reinvesting these profits. Because I owe taxes on capital gains, I just can't risk reinvesting all profits into tokens that can go down 50-90% and risk being unable to pay taxes and other obligations if/when we're in a clear macro downtrend.

UNCERTAINTY: Crypto is a game of survival. Although greed and fear are the extremes of emotions we talk about more often, a lot of damage is done by investors during times of uncertainty. Right now is a perfect example...

Have we topped out? Definitely possible.
Will we pump to new highs? Also possible.
Could we range for 6 months? Of course.

The mistakes during these periods of uncertainty lead many investors to set themselves up for even worse decisions once the market makes a decisive move up or down and breaks out of the range.

Say you're fully allocated to stablecoins, and you are bullish the next 5 years for crypto but bearish the next few months, you might find yourself feeling max FOMO if you were to see a huge green candle reversal, leading you to long with leverage because you think you missed the low, only to get liquidated on the next pullback before the whole market rockets upwards to new highs. In this hypothetical scenario, max pain here means your read on the market was correct, that we would move higher, but your original sin was going to 100% stablecoins with zero long exposure. You set yourself up for this situation--you didn't need to go 100% stablecoins but part of the reason was greed to take max profits now so you can buy back lower.

I think CT talks so much about selling tops and the truth is, selling 25% of your portfolio is an amazing outcome if you believe crypto will grow in the coming years. 50% or more is a huge win. I personally have thought 50% might not even be possible for me this cycle given my conviction for how much more we will grow in the coming years.

I'm getting off topic from the uncertainty theme but here's one more good example of my own profit-taking the last few months... I sold 50% of my SOL I bought between $25-$50 at $265 recently. Meanwhile, I am holding the other 50% for the next several years. I knew if I sold more SOL and it went higher in Feb or later this year, I'd be in pure pain because I do believe SOL is still undervalued at these price levels. As a ETH holder long term, I also knew if I sold more SOL and didn't maintain this bag, I would be giving up my hedge against a future where I'm tragically wrong about ETH and for whatever reason the sentiment for ETH never recovers the way I'd hoped.

FEAR: The last major emotion I work hard to balance is fear. It is the opposite to what we enjoy during max euphoria in crypto--a fear we're going lower, a fear of losing money, a fear about being wrong. Whatever your fear is it can eat away at you. Because I don't use much leverage so I'm less concerned about a pull back blowing up a levered position (1.2x-2x), my fear tends to relate more about being tragically wrong--misjudging a founder/team and skipping a future 100x investment opportunity, misjudging a whole narrative (ie memecoins), or underestimating competition for my bags (ie one reason I bought SOL in 2023 and why I invested in MOVE).

In the end, my goal is to be keenly aware of my fears. I want to understand my fears, how I can mitigate risk of those fears coming to life, and ultimately squashing the emotions associated with these fears so I don't make poor decisions.

I'll stop there. I felt compelled to be more transparent about what I've been doing lately to manage my own expectations and emotions, less about my outlook on the markets. My goal is to always understand how the crypto markets affect me--so that I can maintain my focus and best decision-making as I stay max long on crypto and DeFi, regardless of whether price goes lower or higher this year.

Given all I shared, here's where I stand this cycle from a profit-taking stance:

+ Across my whole portfolio, I've sold 20% into stables
+ Of those profits, I had sold 25% of my long term BTC position (mainly cuz it's up so much and I hope to buy back lower)
+ I sold 50% of my SOL (also given its amazing run) and I plan to buy back more next bear market
+ I've only sold 10% of my ETH holdings, major disappointment this cycle so I remain patient (or wrong), but either way I have conviction ETH is woefully undervalued and thankfully my ETH is extremely productive so I'm happy to sit on it longer in case it breaks to new highs.

[Oll Sailor @oll_sailor]

@DegenPing @maybectrlfreak I will not cry for this guy

[Oll Sailor @oll_sailor]

@DegenPing @maybectrlfreak So what’s next?

[smolting (wassie, verse) @inversebrah]

did u get a HL airdrop?

#poll pls RT uwu

[Oll Sailor @oll_sailor]

@DegenPing @DegenSpartan Sure he’s watching all this from his den

[Oll Sailor @oll_sailor]

@cobie Welcome back sir

[Nature is Amazing ☘️ @AMAZlNGNATURE]

If you're having a bad day, here's some otters on a water slide to make your day better..

[Oll Sailor @oll_sailor]

@zhusu Super cycle

[Hsaka @HsakaTrades]

RIP Toriyama

[Oll Sailor @oll_sailor]

@RNR_0 On etherscan, click on the gas pump at the top

[db @tier10k]

REDDIT SAYS THEY INVESTED EXCESS CASH INTO BTC AND ETH, MAY CONTINUE TO DO SO IN FUTURE

Source: DB | Coins: BTC, ETH

[fiskantes ⭐️🩸 @Fiskantes]

I grew up on these streets

[Oll Sailor @oll_sailor]

@LomahCrypto To Valhalla brothers 🫡

[Kraken @krakenfx]

Today, the SEC filed a complaint alleging that Kraken operates as an unregistered national securities exchange, broker, and clearing house. We disagree with their claims and plan to vigorously defend our position. https://t.co/a0C4wzBo3f

[Oll Sailor @oll_sailor]

@DegenSpartan @0xSwampOwl That’s not the only reason why 1 arm is stronger than the other one G 🫣