It looks like PriceEmpire’s market cap is still based on listing prices, not real sales.
With items like Pandora’s Box FN still listed at ~70k$, the cap could drop even more once these actually sell at post-crash prices.
Yet the market is still going up — why?
TL;DR:
Odds change = 33% easier to hit knives
→ ≈ 49% more supply
→ ≈ 30–35% realistic price pressure
A full -50% happens only if people panic, not because of the raw math.
THREAD CS2 MARKET CRASH MAKE NO SENSE:
New knife odds (with trade-ups):
• Gold: 0.26%
• Red: 0.64% → 5 reds = 1 gold
If all reds are traded up → effective gold ≈ 0.388%
≈ 1 knife per ~258 cases (~33% easier)
Only if every red is used in trade-ups.
For a real -50% crash, you’d need market psychology on top of the odds:
• Panic selling
• Undercut chains
• Streamer/Hype momentum
• “New fair price” mentality spreading
That’s sentiment-driven, not just odds-driven.
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