om

aspiring finance bro

[xavier @nahimdifferent]

up going thru shit only Peter Parker and Future would get

[om @omisfunny]

so cruel man, why

[om @omisfunny]

colossal fuck up again but seems like can’t be undone this time. rock bottom is an interesting place, wow

[om @omisfunny]

@paladdapayasam give

[Mr Ash @ash_twtz]

Interviewer:

Your phone is turned off for days. You power it on and the clock is correct. How?

[Peter Girnus 🦅 @gothburz]

I am a diplomatic aide in the Sultanate of Oman's Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

My job is logistics. When two countries that cannot speak to each other need to speak to each other, I book the rooms. I prepare the briefing materials. I make sure the water glasses are the right distance apart. You would be surprised how much of diplomacy is water glasses. Too close and it feels informal. Too far and it feels like a tribunal. I have a chart.

We had a very good month.

Since January, Oman has been mediating indirect talks between the United States and Iran on Iran's nuclear program. The talks were held in Muscat and in Geneva. The Americans would sit in one room. The Iranians would sit in another room. I would walk between them. My Fitbit says I averaged fourteen thousand steps on negotiation days. The hallway between the two rooms at the Royal Opera House conference center is forty-seven meters. I walked it two hundred and twelve times in February. This is good for my cardiovascular health. It was less good for my knees. Both are in the service of peace.

By mid-February, we had something.

Iran agreed to zero stockpiling of enriched uranium. Not reduced stockpiling. Zero. They agreed to down-blend existing stockpiles to the lowest possible level. They agreed to convert them into irreversible fuel. They agreed to full IAEA verification with potential US inspector access. They agreed, in the Foreign Minister's phrase, to "never, ever" possess nuclear material for a bomb. I have worked in diplomacy for seven years. I have never seen a country agree to this many things this quickly. I made a spreadsheet of the concessions. It had fourteen rows. I color-coded it. Green for confirmed. Yellow for pending. By February 21 the spreadsheet was entirely green. I printed it. It is on my desk in Muscat. It is still green.

That phrase took eleven days. "Never, ever." The Iranians initially offered "not seek to." The Americans wanted "will not under any circumstances." We landed on "never, ever" at 2:14 AM on a Tuesday in Muscat. I typed the final version myself. I used Times New Roman because Geneva prefers it. The document was fourteen pages. I was proud of every comma.

Here is what they said, in the order they said it.

February 24: "We have a once-in-a-generation opportunity." — The Foreign Minister, private briefing to Gulf Cooperation Council ambassadors. I prepared the slide deck. Slide 14 was the implementation timeline. Slide 15 was the signing ceremony logistics. I had reserved the Palais des Nations in Geneva, Room XX. It seats four hundred. We discussed pen brands for the signing. The Iranians preferred Montblanc. The Americans had no preference. I ordered twelve Montblanc Meisterstucks at six hundred and thirty dollars each. They arrive on Tuesday.

February 27, 8:30 AM EST: "The deal is within our reach." — The Foreign Minister, CBS Face the Nation. He sat across from Margaret Brennan. He said broad political terms could be agreed "tomorrow" with ninety days for technical implementation in Vienna. He said, and I wrote this line for the briefing card he carried in his breast pocket: "If we just allow diplomacy the space it needs." He praised the American envoys by name. Steve Witkoff. Jared Kushner. He said both had been constructive.

I watched from the Four Seasons Georgetown. The minibar had cashews. I ate the cashews. They were nineteen dollars. The most expensive cashew I have ever eaten. But it was a good morning and we were within our reach.

February 27, 2:00 PM EST: Meeting with Vice President Vance, Washington. The Foreign Minister presented our progress. Zero stockpiling. Full verification. Irreversible conversion. "Never, ever." The Vice President used the word "encouraging." His aide took notes on an iPad. The aide did not make eye contact for the last nine minutes of the meeting. I noticed this. Noticing things is the only part of my job that is not water glasses.

February 27, 4:00 PM EST: "Not happy with the pace." — President Trump, to reporters.

Not happy with the pace.

We had achieved zero stockpiling. Full IAEA verification. Irreversible fuel conversion. Inspector access. And the phrase "never, ever," which took eleven days and cost me two hundred and twelve trips down a forty-seven-meter hallway.

Every American president since Carter has failed to get Iran to agree to this. Forty-five years.

Not happy with the pace.

February 27, 9:47 PM EST: The Foreign Minister's flight departs Dulles for Muscat. I am in the seat behind him. He is reviewing Slide 14 on his laptop. The implementation timeline. Vienna technical sessions. The signing ceremony. The pens.

I fall asleep over the Atlantic. I dream about water glasses.

February 28, 6:00 AM GST: I wake up to push notifications.

February 28: "The United States has begun major combat operations in Iran." — President Trump.

Operation Epic Fury. Coordinated airstrikes. The United States and Israel. Tehran. Isfahan. Qom. Karaj. Kermanshah. Nuclear facilities. IRGC bases. Sites near the Supreme Leader's office. Israel called their half Operation Roaring Lion. Someone in both governments spent time choosing these names. Epic Fury. Roaring Lion. I spent eleven days on "never, ever." They spent it on branding. The President said Iran had "rejected American calls to halt its nuclear weapons production."

Rejected.

Iran had agreed to zero stockpiling. Iran had agreed to full verification. Iran had agreed to "never, ever." Iran had agreed to everything in a fourteen-page document that I typed in Times New Roman.

The President said they rejected it.

I do not know which document the President was reading. I know which one I typed.

February 28, 18:45 UTC: Iran internet connectivity: four percent. — NetBlocks, confirmed by Cloudflare. Ninety-six percent of a country went dark. You cannot negotiate with a country at four percent connectivity. You cannot negotiate with a country that is being struck. You cannot negotiate. This is not a political opinion. This is a logistics assessment.

February 28: The governor of Minab reported forty girls killed at an elementary school.

I do not have logistics for that. There is no slide for that. The water glass chart does not cover that.

February 28: Lockheed Martin: up. Northrop Grumman: up. RTX: up. Dow futures: down six hundred and twenty-two points. Gold: five thousand two hundred and ninety-six dollars. An analyst at AInvest published a note titled "Iran Strikes: Tactical Plays." The note recommended positions in oil, defense stocks, and gold.

The most expensive cashew I have ever eaten was nineteen dollars. The most expensive pen I have ever ordered was six hundred and thirty dollars. The math suggests I have been working in the wrong industry. Defense stocks do not require water glasses. Defense stocks do not require eleven days. Defense stocks require one morning.

February 28: Israel closed its airspace and its schools. Iran launched retaliatory missiles toward US bases in the Gulf. The Supreme Leader promised a "crushing response." Israel's defense minister declared a permanent state of emergency. Everyone is using words I recognize in an order I do not. I recognize "permanent." I recognize "emergency." I do not recognize them next to each other. In diplomacy, nothing is permanent and everything is an emergency. In war it is the reverse.

February 28: The Foreign Minister has not made a public statement.

The briefing card is still in his breast pocket. It still says "within our reach."

[Sunday Night Football on NBC @SNFonNBC]

The athlete genes run deep.

[New England Patriots @Patriots]

The moment we became division champs 👏

[Chris Hammer @ChrisHammer180]

Paul Lim's smile after winning his first and only leg against Luke Humphries 😃

[Mickey / Phase Transition @MickeyXaman]

There will be Oil

The naval blockade of Venezuela isn't about one regime. It's about securing the first piece of a new map.

When Washington announced a "total and complete blockade" of Venezuelan oil tankers this week—deploying what it called the largest armada in South American history—the framing was drugs, terrorism, migration. But my models are flashing a different signal. This is resource physics dressed in security language.

The Finite Atoms Problem

My models track Resource Concentration. Right now, the readings for energy transition minerals tell a specific story:

South America holds 60% of global lithium reserves, 40% of copper reserves, and seven of the world's ten largest copper mines. Chile alone produces 27% of global copper. The Lithium Triangle (Argentina, Bolivia, Chile) controls the feedstock for every EV battery and grid storage system the energy transition requires. Demand for lithium is projected to increase seventeen-fold by 2050.

Then there's oil. Venezuela sits on the world's largest proven reserves—heavy crude that American Gulf Coast refineries were specifically engineered to process. That infrastructure isn't easily retooled. Those refineries need Venezuelan-grade feedstock, or they need massive capital expenditure to handle lighter alternatives.

Resource Concentration is approaching levels my models have only flagged before major systemic reconfigurations (Oil 0.67 in 1973, Chip 0.72 in 2024).

The Great Sphere-ification

The world is reorganizing into exclusive geographic spheres. China spent two decades stitching Africa into its supply chain; controlling DRC's cobalt (70% of global production), rare earth processin90%+), and the midstream refining that turns rocks into batteries. Russia anchors Eastern Europe through energy architecture.

The Western Hemisphere? China is now the leading trade partner of every South American country except Colombia. Chinese companies hold stakes in Chilean lithium. BYD is building EV and battery factories in Brazil and Mexico.

The new American doctrine; call it Monroe 2.0; isn't rhetoric. It's a physics calculation: whoever secures exclusive access to South America's atoms gains a decisive advantage in the multipolar order now crystallizing.

The Strategic Sequence

Here's the question nobody's asking: is this a retreat or a prerequisite?

One read says America is pulling back; abandoning Taiwan, writing off Europe, contracting to its home hemisphere. A fortress strategy for managed decline.

The other read is more interesting. You can't fight a war in the Pacific if your critical mineral supply chains run through Chinese; controlled chokepoints. You can't sustain a European security architecture if your industrial base depends on adversary-processed inputs. Securing the Western Hemisphere first isn't retreat. It's sequencing.

My models suggest the latter. This isn't about giving up global reach; it's about building the resource foundation that makes global reach sustainable. Control South American lithium and copper, and you have leverage in the energy transition. Lock in Venezuelan heavy crude, and your refining infrastructure stays operational. Deny China its foothold in the hemisphere, and you've protected the rear before the main contest begins.

Venezuela as Test Case

Venezuela is where this doctrine gets stress-tested. Largest oil reserves on earth. Production crippled by sanctions and mismanagement—down from 3.6M barrels/day in the 1990s to under 1M today. A government aligned with Moscow and Beijing. And most importantly: isolated enough that enforcement carries limited escalation risk.

If Washington can flip Venezuela—or at minimum deny its resources to rivals—it proves the doctrine works. The reserves are still there. The infrastructure can be rebuilt under different management. The refineries on the Gulf Coast are waiting.

What Comes Next

The question isn't whether the world reorganizes into competing spheres. That's already happening.

The question is whether America secures its hemisphere before the Pacific theater ignites—or after.

"I drink your milkshake."

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, or geopolitical advice. Past patterns are not guarantees of future outcomes. Always do your own research.

[wale @olawale2_]

Homelander can’t even come to old trafford and bernabeu anymore because hes burned bridges lmao

[Tenji @TenjiGambles]

Btw I sold it to buy my girl a ring.

The knife made me happy but I think this would make me happier 🙂‍↕️🙏.

[Jordi @jdie02]

Shohei Otani; remember the name! He can possibly the next phenom in MLB! Hope #Dodgers do get him!

[om @omisfunny]

@prekshattix ?

[Sahil @sahilypatel]

The deeper you go into the semiconductor supply chain, the less believable it becomes.

> TSMC, a company on a small island, produces over 90% of the world’s most advanced chips
> TSMC relies on dutch company ASML for EUV lithography machines
> ASML depends on German Company Carl Zeiss, the only firm in the world capable of making mirrors precise enough for ASML’s requirements.
> The light source for ASML’s EUV machines is produced by a single company in San Diego.
> The photoresists used to print transistor patterns are produced by Japanese firms like JSR and Tokyo Ohka Kogyo.
> The ultra-pure quartz needed to make silicon wafers comes entirely from a single mine in Spruce Pine, North Carolina.
> The copper and rare-earth materials inside chips are mined and refined across Chile, the Congo, and China.
> The specialized gases used in chipmaking, like neon and fluorine, largely come from Ukraine and Japan.
> The design blueprints for these chips often come from American companies like NVIDIA, AMD, and Apple, which rely on software tools from U.S. firms like Synopsys and Cadence.

Remove any single piece and the whole system collapses.

[Polymarket Counter-Strike @PolymarketCS2]

ATTENTION ESPORTS FANS

I accidentally bought IEM Chengdu tickets on the same day I'm getting married & they cost me $1,000 (plane & con tix, hotel). if anyone wants to go take my place for FREE it's going to be at the St. Marys church her name is Lyanna she's a super nice girl

[om @omisfunny]

@RishikaSaha15 nothing to see here 😁😁😁

[🇫🇮🇸🇪 @Pasisburner]

I need atleast 10 tanks around Ronaldo every single second he is in the USA

[om @omisfunny]

@RishikaSaha15 @_vonnn8 allegations 🙏🏽😁